How Mental Simulations of the Future and Message‐Induced Expectations Influence Purchasing Goals

In the reported experiment, participants considered future fantasies about owning an electronics product, negative realities that impeded the realization of that fantasy (e.g., insufficient money), or simultaneously considered both. Consistent with Fantasy Realization Theory (Oettingen, 1996), only participants who simultaneously considered fantasies and reality formed stronger (weaker) goals to purchase their fantasy product if they read an advertisement for an electronics store leading them to expect that doing so was feasible (unfeasible). Purchasing goals were not influenced by expectations in the other conditions. The theoretical and practical contributions of these findings as well as future directions for research are discussed.     

Strategic Trade, Competitive Industries and Agricultural Trade Disputes

The primary predictions of strategic-trade theory are not restricted to imperfectly competitive markets. Indeed, these predictions emerge in a natural three-country extension of the traditional theory of trade policy in competitive markets, once the theory is augmented to allow for politically motivated governments, so that the sign of export policy may be converted from tax to subsidy. This suggests that the ongoing agricultural trade disputes may be best interpreted from the perspective of strategic-trade theory. In fact, these disputes may offer the most important example yet of strategic-trade theory.     

Re-examination of the historical equity risk premium in Australia

In light of the ongoing debate over the value of the equity risk premium, its increasing use in the regulatory setting, and the impact of dividend imputation on the premium, this paper presents a timely new look at the historical equity risk premium in Australia, and provides an improved understanding of the historical record. We document concerns about data quality that become increasingly important the further back in time one looks. In particular, there are sufficient question marks over the quality of data prior to 1958 to warrant any estimates based thereon to be treated with caution. Accordingly, we present a new set of estimates of the historical equity risk premium corresponding to periods of increasing data quality but of decreasing sample size. Relative to bonds (bills), the equity premium has averaged 6.3 per cent (6.8 per cent) per annum over 1958–2005, which is a period of relatively good data quality. Together with other results in the paper, the findings reveal a historical estimate that is substantially less than widely cited historical studies would otherwise indicate. We reconcile prior evidence through documenting a dividend adjustment that has typically been overlooked. We also provide estimates that incorporate an adjustment for imputation credits.     

Why do global long‐term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long‐term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of “real world commodity prices” differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between ?0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro‐economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross‐fertilize analyses at different scales.     

Line,line, everywhere a line: Cultural considerations for waiting-line managers

Given the trend of increasing business globalization, management teams of multinational companies have taken steps to better understand consumers, local business partners, and local governments. Local queueing preferences present managers with additional challenges and opportunities in international markets. The world may be ‘flat,’ but it is foolish to believe that all cultures perceive lines and waiting through the same lens. As discussed herein, perceptions regarding waiting and management of queues vary greatly; therefore, managers should adopt different policies and procedures when managing waiting lines across natural and cultural borders. Considering queue management in a global context offers benefits. Thinking globally—and acting locally—can prioritize and clarify important decisions any waiting-line manager has to make.     

Financial Statement Complexity and Meeting Analysts’ Expectations

We examine whether firms with greater financial statement complexity are more likely to meet or beat analysts’ earnings expectations. We proxy for financial statement complexity using the firm's industry and year adjusted accounting policy disclosure length. Firms with more complex financial statements are more likely to just beat expectations than just miss expectations. Firms with complex financial statements appear to use expectations management to beat expectations, but do not use earnings management. Corroborating these findings, we find analysts rely more on management guidance for more complex firms. Firms with complex financial statements are also more likely to have analysts exclude items from actual “street earnings,” but tests suggest this strategy is not specifically used by complex firms to beat expectations. The effect we document is specific to analyst forecasts and not to other alternative benchmarks.     

An analysis of bundle pricing: the case of biotech seeds

Biotechnology has provided opportunities for strategic management and pricing of patented products. This article analyzes the economics and strategy of bundling and bundle pricing of biotech traits in seeds. When the bundling of genes/traits is decided by biotech firms, firms may choose among subadditive pricing, component pricing, or superadditive pricing strategies. We argue that complementarity among component genes contributes to subadditive pricing, while substitution among components contributes to superadditive pricing. The nature of bundle pricing is explored empirically using U.S. seed corn data from 2000 to 2007. We document that subadditive bundle pricing of traits is commonly found in the seed corn market. However, we also present evidence of superadditive pricing and component pricing. The presence of different pricing and bundling strategies suggests a rapidly advancing and complex market. The preponderance of subadditive pricing suggests that trait bundling offers benefits to farmers exhibiting strong demand for multiple complementary genetic traits.     

Professional Directors and Governance Quality

We examine professional directors—board members with no employment outside of serving as independent directors. We find that boards with a higher percentage of professional directors engage in more acquisitions, experience lower acquisition announcement returns, and exhibit lower performance‐turnover sensitivity and lower financial performance. We also examine the returns surrounding the appointment‐announcement dates of professional directors and find that firms experience significantly lower cumulative abnormal returns upon the appointment announcement of professional directors as compared to nonprofessional directors. The negative returns are primarily experienced by firms that face greater agency issues, suggesting that the market does not value professional directors for stricter monitoring. Overall, our findings do not lend support for calls to professionalize corporate boards.     

Government Revenue and Child and Maternal Mortality

Open Economies Review - Most maternal and child deaths result from inadequate access to the critical determinants of health: clean water, sanitation, education and healthcare, which are also among...