The contextual nature of the predictive power of statistically-based quarterly earnings models

We present new empirical evidence on the contextual nature of the predictive power of five statistically-based quarterly earnings expectation models evaluated on a holdout period spanning the twelve quarters from 2000–2002. In marked contrast to extant time-series work, the random walk with drift (RWD) model provides significantly more accurate pooled, one-step-ahead quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of high-technology firms (n = 202). In similar predictive comparisons, the Griffin-Watts (GW) ARIMA model provides significantly more accurate quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of regulated firms (n = 218). Finally, the RWD and GW ARIMA models jointly dominate the other expectation models (i.e., seasonal random walk with drift, the Brown-Rozeff (BR) and Foster (F) ARIMA models) for a default sample of firms (n = 796). We provide supplementary analyses that document the: (1) increased frequency of the number of loss quarters experienced by our sample firms in the holdout period (2000–2002) vis-à-vis the identification period (1990–1999); (2) reduced levels of earnings persistence for our sample firms relative to earnings persistence factors computed by Baginski et al. (2003) during earlier time periods (1970s–1980s); (3) relative impact on the predictive ability of the five expectation models conditioned upon the extent of analyst coverage of sample firms (i.e., no coverage, moderate coverage, and extensive coverage); and (4) sensitivity of predictive performance across subsets of regulated firms with the BR ARIMA model providing the most accurate predictions for utilities (n = 87) while the RWD model is superior for financial institutions (n = 131).

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Segmenting industrial competitive markets: An example from air freight

This paper applies a disaggregated approach to segment industrial markets under competitive structures taking the air-freight market for the high-technology product industry in Taiwan as a case study. Data from firms is used to examine the structure of the air freight industry and we find that carriers are clustered into two strategic groups, express and forwarder. Pricing is a leading strategy recognized by customers for forwarders, whereas service punctuality and freight security are the winning strategies for express. The high-tech freight market is classifiable by shipment destination and size.     

Exploring the use of travel information – identifying contextual market segmentation in Seoul, Korea

As the amount of information is rapidly growing, and ubiquitous urban environments are emerging, the question which kind of information to provide is a major challenge for commercial and public travel-information service providers alike. This paper reports the analyses of recent data, collected in Metropolitan Seoul, about the acquisition of travel information. The study applies CHAID analysis to find homogeneous segments in travel information acquisition. Findings indicate that contextual variables are crucial to explain information acquisition behaviour, depending on decision context. The implication is that both socioeconomic and contextual variables are important to better understand the acquisition (and provision) of travel information. The results have important implications for managers and policy-makers, in particular in the way they respond to dynamic, contextual market segmentation.     

Cross-cultural comparison of the image of Guam perceived by Korean and Japanese leisure travelers: Importance–performance analysis

As international tourism becomes a global phenomenon and its volume increases rapidly, understanding cultural differences and similarities provides destination marketers in a host country with a strategic platform upon which any planning and marketing efforts should be grounded. Based on the theory of cultural value orientation, the current study focuses on a cross-cultural comparison between the two markets most important to Guam tourism: Japanese and Korean leisure travelers. Using Importance–performance analysis, the evaluative image of Guam perceived by Korean travelers is compared with that perceived by Japanese travelers to uncover any differences between these two nationality groups. The results clearly indicate a contrast between the two groups in terms of destination evaluations and behavioral patterns.     

Do socially responsible activities help hotels and casinos achieve their financial goals?

While the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR) has gained much attention and is currently practiced by many companies, it has yet to be empirically examined in the context of hotels and casinos, especially in regard to the potential effects of CSR on firm value and performance. As the findings on the relationship between CSR and financial performance have been inconclusive and this relationship has been found to differ among industries, this study examines the relationship between CSR and firm value and profitability for hotels and casinos. Results of the Durbin–Wu–Hausman (DWH) test and a subsequent two-stage least square (2SLS) method show that hotel companies’ CSR has a simultaneous and positive relationship with financial performance. For casino companies, however, results show that CSR has no simultaneous or particular effect on financial performance. Findings suggest that hotel companies can confidently and strategically increase CSR investment to enhance both short-term (profitability) and long-term performance (firm value). Casino companies need to carefully examine the effects of CSR on financial performance, when making CSR-related decisions.     

A Study on Flow Experience Structures: Enhancement or Death,Prospects for the Korean Wave

In proposing the concept of flow which focuses on experiencing the sites visited by Korean Wave tourists as induced by drama or movies, the role of involvement level (variables) of Korean Wave tourists in influencing flow construct as they experience the sites of FIT (Film Induced Tourism) was investigated. The involvement level of Korean Wave visitors was found to operate as a mechanism by which challenge, skills, and focused attention on site might be more organized or more actively experienced. This recognizes that there is clearly a need for making the FIT sites exposed much by any mix of various media. The findings of this study showed that challenges and skills influence enjoyment as an output factor of flow. Film site visitors are assumed to participate in the roles of film characters, experiencing the places and the atmosphere. The degree of visitors' reflections of the film optimizes awareness of flow experiences on the site. Therefore it is necessary to provide more detailed experiential programs on the film sites with a wide variety of flow-related contents in the film.     

The spatial and temporal variation in passenger service rate and its impact on train dwell time: A time-series clustering approach using dynamic time warping

This study aims to improve the understanding of the underlying mechanism of passenger boarding and alighting processes, as well as its potential influence on train dwell time and train operation. Empirical data collected from one of busiest metro stations in Seoul, Korea, demonstrates the spatial and temporal variation in the passenger service rate, as a result of interference between boarding, alighting, and standing passengers. This study postulates that the level of interference can be associated with the train car occupancy and the proximity of train door to entry points, as waiting passengers tend to cluster near the platform entries. A unique temporal service rate curve is derived from each door location. We introduce Dynamic Time Warping for similarity assessment and clustering. It revealed four groups of train doors showing distinct shapes of curve from each platform. The first cluster includes the train doors located closest to the platform entry points where the initial service rate is drastically impeded by severe inference among passengers. The level of interference gradually diminishes as the door is located farther away from the entry points, but the overall service rate decreases as well. A passenger service time model is derived to include the cluster variable. To test its significance, the prediction capability of the model is presented with and without the cluster variable. The results of this study may be used to guide waiting passengers along the platform to minimize interference and to avoid serious disruption during passenger service time.