CEO Optimism and the Credibility of Open-Market Stock Repurchase Announcements

Given their low-cost and low level of commitment, open-market stock repurchase announcements are often viewed by the market with a degree of skepticism, leading to a weak initial market reaction followed by positive stock price drifts. The authors argue that the repurchase announcements made by optimistic CEOs should be more credible than those made by nonoptimistic CEOs. Our results show that optimistic CEOs are more likely to actually buy back their shares after the announcements and the abnormal returns following repurchase announcements are larger for optimistic CEOs. This evidence suggests that CEO optimism is an important factor that the market seems to overlook while evaluating the credibility of open-market repurchase announcements. Our main contribution is to link one of the most important managerial traits, optimism, to the open-market repurchases.     

Effect of ownership structure on underinvestment and overinvestment: empirical evidence from Spain

This paper investigates how ownership affects the investment‐cash flow sensitivity by taking into account the non‐linearities of ownership with respect to firm value, and using a free cash flow index and a criterion for financial constraints to disentangle underinvestment and overinvestment. Interesting results are provided by estimating using the Generalized Method of Moments to eliminate the endogeneity problem. The alignment of interests between owners and managers and the monitoring by concentrated ownership both alleviate the sensitivity of investment to cash flow both in underinvestor and overinvestor firms. However, in the presence of controlling owners, underinvestment and overinvestment are exacerbated.     

The price of variance risk

Between 1996 and 2014, it was costless on average to hedge news about future variance at horizons ranging from 1 quarter to 14 years. Only unexpected, transitory realized variance was significantly priced. These results present a challenge to many structural models of the variance risk premium, such as the intertemporal CAPM and recent models with Epstein–Zin preferences and long-run risks. The results are also difficult to reconcile with macro models in which volatility affects investment decisions. At the same time, the data allows us to distinguish between different disaster models; a model in which the stock market has a time-varying exposure to disasters and investors have power utility fits the major features of the variance term structure.     

Political Competition in Weak States

In the developing areas, politics is often undemocratic, states lack a monopoly over violence, and politicians play upon cultural identities. To analyze politics in such settings, we develop a model in which politicians compete to build a revenue yielding constituency. Citizens occupy fixed locations and politicians seek to maximize rents. To secure revenues, politicians must incur the costs of providing local public goods and mobilizing security services. Citizens must participate, i.e. pay taxes; but can choose which leader to support. The model enables us to explore the impact of cultural identities and varying notions of military power.     

Intellectual Property Rights in the Asian-Pacific Region: problems, patterns, and policy

This paper explores recent theory and evidence regarding increased protection of intellectual property rights (ZPRs) in Asia. Knowledge has significant public good aspects making optimal provision a problem of trading off universal access against adequate incentives for R&D. Given the ease of evasion of IPR relative to tariffs, attempts to push low and middleincome countries to higher levels of protection may be against their national interests. The Uruguay Round may encounter less than enthusiastic enforcement. Further efforts to refine IPR protection might usefully be focused on flexibility instead of harmonisation.     

Issues in Assessing the Effect of Interindustry R&D Spillovers

This paper aims to clarify three issues concerning the weighting methodol ogy generally used to evaluate interindustry R&D spillovers. These issues concern the likely nature of the spillovers estimated through different types of supporting matrices; the similarity between input–output (IO), technology flows and technological proximity matrices; and the relevance of the assumption that a single matrix can be used for different countries. Data analyses of weighting components show that technology flows matrices are in an intermediate position between IO matrices and technological proximity matrices, but closer to the former. The various IO matrices, as well as the three technological proximity matrices, are very similar to each other. The panel data estimates of the effect of different types of interindustry R&D spillovers on industrial productivity growth in the G7 countries reject the hypotheses that a technology flows matrix can be approximated by an IO matrix and that a single IO matrix can be usedfor different countries. By transitivity, the procedure that comprises using a single technology flow for several countries is not reliable. The international comparison shows that each country benefits from different types of R&D externality. In Japan and, to a lesser extent, in the US, the rate of return to direct R&D is very high and is likely to compensate for relatively weak interindustry R&D spillover effects. In the five other industrialized countries, the reverse observation is true: strong social rates of return to R&D counterbal ance the poor performances of direct R&D.