USE OF ERRORS OF PREDICTION IN IMPROVING FORECAST ACCURACY: AN APPLICATION TO WOOL IN AUSTRALIA

Over the past 20 years, the RAE has produced commodity forecasts in BAE Trends in Australian Agricultural Commodities, Farm Costs and Farm Incomes and other commodity outlook publications. There have been several studies on the accuracy of the forecasts, either comparing RAE forecasts with naive forecasts or making simple calculations of biases and standard deviations. Such approaches are not sufficiently informative in that they do not give any indication of what has caused the inaccuracies, nor of the timing of significant changes in prediction accuracy. In this analysis, an attempt is made to improve upon this situation using some tools of time series analysis.     

THE ESTIMATED EFFECT OF CATHOLIC SCHOOLING ON EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES USING PROPENSITY SCORE MATCHING

This paper examines the effect of attending a Catholic high school on educational outcomes. The statistical analysis is based on data obtained from the US National Educational Longitudinal Study. Using propensity score matching methods to control for selection bias, we find that Catholic schooling improves maths test scores, with stronger effects for males than for females, but appears to have little effect (if any) on reading scores. Catholic schooling also raises high school graduation rates and substantially increases the likelihood of enrolment in a 4‐year college. Use of the difference‐in‐difference method suggests that the effect of Catholic schooling on changes in maths scores is more muted, though still statistically significant.     

青藏铁路开通与西藏大发展——青藏铁路：西藏发展的助推器

2005年我国历史上最重要的一条铁路——青藏铁路全线贯通，2006年7月正式试运营。对于这样一条全世界都关注的铁路的建成和运营，将对西藏的经济社会发展产生什么影响？我们应该选择什么样的应对策略，是值得认真研究的大课题。为此，本期封面文章全力推出专题：青藏铁路开通与西藏大发展。本刊特邀《西藏人口发展战略研究》课题组专家学者，力图从西藏的社会、文化、经济各个方面作一深入探讨，为各级政府决策提供科学建议，为西藏的发展建言献策。[编者按]     

Research instrumentation and institutional innovation in canada

Science policy is being challenged. Conceptions of innovation and the nature of research are rapidly being forced beyond traditional views which see innovation as a linear process and science policy in terms of funding issues. Indeed, the policy challenge is being defined by the tension between trying to conduct or encourage research that is at or near an expanding research frontier, while simultaneously functioning within 'steady state' fiscal environments. One key manifestation of this challenge—which is underpinned by a new social contract between the scientific and government communities—is being expressed in terms of the changing role that research instrumentation is playing with regard to research management, research policy and research planning. This paper examines several Candian example f the changing nature of research, with particular reference to the role of instrumentation; it also outlines the particular challenges that small open econmies must face with respect to instrument-intensive research and offers a possible taxonomy for analyzing innovation and policy options.     

From First Canoe to Statehood: Eight Hundred Years of Economic and Political Change in Hawaii

The Hawaiian archipelago was the last major land area on the planet to be settled, with Polynesians making the long voyage just under a millennium ago. Building on new archaeological and historical research, the lecture provides an overview of the economic and political history of Hawai‘i from the first Polynesian settlements in the thirteen century through U.S. colonisation and statehood. The analysis considers how the political and economic institutions that emerged and evolved in Hawai‘i during its centuries of global isolation changed in response to Hawai‘i's post-1778 integration into a new world of global markets and colonial politics.     

Executive Compensation and Financial Performance Measures: Evidence from Significant Financial Institutions

We survey the use of financial performance measures in determining executive pay among significant Australian financial institutions. We document evidence of the pervasiveness with which externally disclosed non‐GAAP (non‐Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) financial measures are also used internally to determine variable remuneration, with the apparent popularity of cash profit after tax in short‐term incentives plans. Our evidence also highlights the increasing use of peer group‐adjusted measures (e.g., relative cash earnings per share and return on equity ranking against a peer group) in determining longer‐run incentives, despite the fact that members of the peer group do not measure financial performance in a directly comparable manner. Detailed analysis of the four major trading banks (Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac) reveals differences in the way non‐GAAP earnings measures are calculated across the major banks, as well as some variation over time in the way individual banks measure performance. We also document evidence of non‐GAAP earnings restatements, with around 25% of non‐GAAP results subsequently being restated. These restatements are more likely to result in a downward revision of the initially reported non‐GAAP result than an upward revision. We therefore conclude that existing measures of financial performance used to determine senior executive compensation are not as ‘objective’, as might be assumed.     

Shipping cost and development of the landlocked developing countries: Panel evidence from the common correlated effects approach

We estimate the impact of shipping cost on development for landlocked developing countries (LLDCs). Since container trade is important to them, we construct a country-specific measure of shipping cost, called HarpexCost, which combines the global cost of container shipping with information on how exposed to container shipping each LLDC is. We employ the common correlated effects (CCE) estimator of Pesaran (Econometrica, 2006; 55: 967) to first estimate the impact of HarpexCost on the LLDCs’ development, and then recover the actual impact of shipping cost from these estimates. Overall, we observe that shipping cost has large negative effects on the LLDCs. Building upon these results, we provide new estimates on the cost of landlockedness and how trade benefits their development.     

Litigation risk: Measurement and impact on M&A transaction terms

The purpose of the paper is to propose an original proprietary proxy of a firm's litigation risk. We extend the scope of litigation risk outside of the conflicts with shareholders and the domain of security litigation. We demonstrate that the source of the risk of litigation can be found in the firm's policies and in its management's operational or strategic decisions, even if a sector conditioning effect exists. Based on a sample of 465 US M&A transactions between 2000 and 2014, we provide evidence that the level of litigation risk, at the acquirer's level, has a positive and significant impact on the takeover premium. We also provide evidence that a significant relationship exists between the acquirer's litigation risk and the means of payment. An extension of the sample to international transactions is used as a robustness check; it confirms the previous results.     

Measurement of Formal Convergence of Vietnamese Accounting Standards with IFRS

Convergence refers to the process of narrowing the differences between International Accounting Standards/International Financial Reporting Standards (IAS/IFRS) and country‐specific accounting standards. The purpose of this study is to measure the formal convergence between Vietnamese Accounting Standards (VAS) and IAS/IFRS using a fuzzy‐based approach. We assess the extent of convergence between VAS and IAS/IFRS from the perspective of a single standard, clusters of standards and the standards as a whole. The levels of standards convergence are clustered into four categories: full convergence, substantial convergence, substantial difference and complete difference. Our results indicate that the level of convergence between the two sets of standards only achieves mid‐level convergence. The findings of this study should help policy makers improve VAS to meet international standards.     

Task‐based structures in open source software: revisiting the onion model

Studies on Open Source Software (OSS) developer communities have long stated that there is a relationship between community structure and tasks carried out by project members. This relationship has been exemplified by the onion model, which has been instrumental in understanding self‐coordination in OSS projects. Despite its ubiquity, there is a lack of empirical evidence to validate the relative position of each task cluster within the onion model. In this study, we map out the community structure of a large open source project and observe its bug‐fixing patterns to explore the relationship between tasks and structure. Our study makes three significant contributions. First, we find no empirical evidence to support the structural location of bug‐fixing tasks in the onion structure. Second, we find empirical evidence to support the core‐periphery continuum model linking an actor’s coreness to problem‐solving ability. Third, our results suggest that the importance and location of each task within the core‐periphery structure evolve over time. These findings add clarity to the community structure and their implications for the management and coordination of collaborative innovation projects.