Econometric Methods for Modelling Systems With a Mixture of i(1) and i(0) Variables

This paper considers structural models with both I(1) and I(0) variables. The structural shocks associated with either set of variables could be permanent or transitory. We classify the shocks as (P1,P0) and (T1,T0), where P/T distinguishes permanent/transitory, while 1/0 means they are attached to structural equations with either I(1) or I(0) variables as their ‘dependent’ variable. We show that P0 shocks can affect cointegration analysis and provide a formula to compute the permanent component if they are present. Finally, we reformulate a well‐known empirical structural vector autoregression showing the impact of P0 shocks when there are just long‐run parametric and sign restrictions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Simple Model of Insurance Market Dynamics

Abstract

This paper constructs and studies a simple but realistic model of an insurance market. The model has a minimalist construction in the sense that the number of parameters defining it is strictly limited and the elimination of any one of them would destroy its realism. There are 11 essential parameters. Each of the parameters has a physical interpretation. Some determine competitive effects within the market, some barriers to entry, and so on. The effect of each on various aspects of the market is examined in the presence of simulated loss experience. The aspects of the market considered include stability of premium rates, profitability, and market concentration. Some of the parameters are capable of use as regulatory controls. Two parameters, in addition to the original 11, are explicit price controls. Despite its simplicity, the model displays considerably complex behavior. Some results are intuitive, but some are not. For this reason, regulatory controls need to be applied with great caution lest they induce perverse effects, possibly even the reverse of those intended. The effect of the parameters on market behavior is first studied in the absence of catastrophic events from the loss experience. Subsequently, the effect of a single such event is studied.     

A number‐of‐modes reference rule for density estimation under multimodality

We consider kernel density estimation for univariate distributions. The question of interest is as follows: given that the data analyst has some background knowledge on the modality of the data (for instance, ‘data of this type are usually bimodal’), what is the adequate bandwidth to choose? We answer this question by extending Silverman's idea of ‘normal‐reference’ to that of ‘reference to a Gaussian mixture’. The concept is illustrated in the light of real data examples.     

Leading to Learn

“You don't see to draw, you draw to see.” And then Fred said, “It's just the same for leadership, you don't learn to lead, you lead to learn.” The arts can teach us to stay with our senses and not know and in that way to provide a balance to the dominance of the analytic approaches to our organizational worlds. There is an old saying that you can only manage what you can measure. The arts can help us to work with what we cannot measure and the way to do that is by leading to learn. The current article explores the qualitatively different way in which the arts teach us to apprehend the world and how that is central to leadership.     

An Empirical Analysis of Triple Bottom-Line Reporting and its Determinants: Evidence from the United States and Japan

This paper investigates triple bottom‐line (TBL) disclosures of 50 of the largest US and Japanese companies. Twenty disclosure criteria were developed for each of the TBL disclosure areas: economic, social, and environmental. Disclosure information was examined in annual reports, stand‐alone reports, and special website reports. Regression analysis was used to examine empirically the determinants of TBL disclosure practice. Our results indicate that, for total TBL disclosure (combining economic, social, and environmental categories), the extent of reporting is higher for firms with larger size, lower profitability, lower liquidity, and for firms with membership in the manufacturing industry. Further analysis indicates that the results for the total TBL disclosure are primarily driven by non‐economic disclosures. We also find that the extent of overall TBL reporting is higher for Japanese firms, with environmental disclosure being the key driver. This result could be attributed to the differences in national cultures, the regulatory environment, and other institutional factors between the United States and Japan.     

Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004 Taylor, Lance. 2004. Reconstructing macroeconomics. structuralist proposals and critique of the mainstream, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967 Goodwin, R.M. 1967. “A growth cycle”. In Socialism, capitalism and economic growth, Edited by: Feinstein, C.H. Cambridge, , UK: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008 Kauermann, G., Teuber, T. and Flaschel, P. 2008. “Estimating loops and cycles using penalized splines”. Bielefeld: CEM working paper.  [Google Scholar]).     

What would Don Draper do? Rules for restoring the contemporary agency mojo

What are the timeless truths of advertising? How can agency leaders manage their teams, their creative talent, and clients? To answer these and other questions, the mythology of the ‘Golden Age of Advertising’ is examined and analyzed herein. Specifically, using ad man Don Draper—protagonist of the fictional, but already culturally iconic, television series Mad Men—as a mythic archetype, lessons are extracted for contemporary advertising practitioners. Ten timeless rules are proposed and explicated in the areas of (1) managing intra-agency leadership processes, (2) managing creative processes, and (3) managing client relationships.     

Is off-farm income reforming the farm? Evidence from Mexico

Does access to off-farm income complement or compete with agricultural production? This article explores the effect of off-farm income on agricultural production activities, using data from the 2003 Mexico National Rural Household Survey. We first discuss the theoretical conditions under which access to off-farm income may influence production in an agricultural household model. Instrumental-variable (IV) estimation methods are then used to test whether agricultural production activities, technologies, and input use differ between households with and without access to off-farm income. We find that off-farm income has a negative effect on agricultural output and the use of family labor on the farm, but a positive impact on the demand for purchased inputs. There is also a slight efficiency gain in households with access to off-farm income. Findings offer insights into how household production evolves as rural households increasingly engage in off-farm income activities.