Sensitivity of the Pakistan Economy to Changes in Import Prices and Profits,Taxes or Subsidies

A revised ^{1 1} John McKean under contract to Chemonics supported by the Pakistan Food Security Management Project. View all notes and condensed Pakistan input–output (I–O) model is used to trace and quantify the inflationary impacts of changes in ‘primary’ input prices on the domestic processing sectors of the Pakistan economy. The I–O model ^{2 1} John McKean under contract to Chemonics supported by the Pakistan Food Security Management Project. View all notes is applied to estimate impacts of changes of primary input prices on a Laspeyres price index of input costs to domestic Pakistan industry. Cost push in ‘primary’input prices can include: new or increased tax rates, changes in the terms of trade and prices on imported goods, duties which raise import costs, or increases in the mark-up or profit rate in various industries.     

Pricing currency options with scheduled and unscheduled announcement effects on volatility

It is well documented that exchange rate volatility is time-varying and that it can be affected by scheduled events such as money supply announcements and unscheduled ones such as spot market interventions and interest rate changes. This study provides a European event model (E model) for currency call options that explicitly addresses the volatility effects of these two classes of events. Managers who are concerned with hedging in an environment of changing volatility may find the E model useful. The E and modified Black-Scholes (MBS) models have similar average errors in predicting option price changes across event windows and do better than a naive no-change prediction. The E model tends to reduce the underpricing of convex, short-term out-of-the-money options and the mispricing of most classes of convex options.     

The impact of horizontal mergers and acquisitions on cost and quality in health care

Mergers and acquisitions among HMOs, hospitals and other health care providers can be disconcerting to benefits staff and employees, but they can be successfully managed. They may offer an employer the opportunity to improve the quality of care provided and to do so at reduced costs.     

A multi-horizon comparison of density forecasts for the S&P 500 using index returns and option prices

We compare density forecasts of the S&P 500 index from 1991 to 2004, obtained from option prices and daily and 5-min index returns. Risk-neutral densities are given by using option prices to estimate diffusion and jump-diffusion processes which incorporate stochastic volatility. Three transformations are then used to obtain real-world densities. These densities are compared with historical densities defined by ARCH models. For horizons of two and four weeks the best forecasts are obtained from risk-transformations of the risk-neutral densities, while the historical forecasts are superior for the one-day horizon; our ranking criterion is the out-of-sample likelihood of observed index levels. Mixtures of the real-world and historical densities have higher likelihoods than both components for short forecast horizons.     

Differences in Opportunities? Wage,Employment and House‐Price Effects on Migration*

Most empirical studies of individual migration choice analyse factors associated with out‐migration from an origin location. In contrast, we model the migration decision within the context of potential destinations, combining British panel data over the period 1992–2008 with other data sources. Contrary to earlier micro studies, we show that differences in house prices levels (but not growth) are important determinants of household migration for homeowners. Unemployed individuals respond to regional differences in expected individual wages, whereas the employed are more sensitive to employment opportunities. Our evidence is consistent with partners of heads of households being tied migrants.     

Keeping the faith: Belonging to the critical community

This short reflective piece explores what it means to adopt a ‘critical’ position in organizational scholarship. We offer three separate narratives that combine when we consider what it means to believe in being critical. Each narrative examines the identification with this particular academic perspective from a different standpoint, including the performance of rationality and embodiment; the assessment of quality through the in-group/out-group theories of social psychology; and the implications of hyper-performativity for having a range of critical voices heard. We conclude by suggesting ways in which the critical community might adopt a more reflective position about embodied behaviors.     

Are performance appraisals a bureaucratic exercise or can they be used to enhance sales‐force satisfaction and commitment?

In some sales organizations the performance appraisal is treated as a bureaucratic exercise. As such, sales managers may essentially conduct appraisals in an arbitrary and perfunctory manner. This behavior could be based on the belief that conducting performance appraisals requires considerable amounts of time and effort, generates few rewards, and adds considerably to the manager's level of conflict and stress. The purpose of this research is to examine the relationships existing between performance appraisals, salesperson organizational commitment, and job satisfaction. If various characteristics of performance appraisals that build commitment and satisfaction could be identified, then managers may be more capable of using performance appraisals that yield positive results. A survey of 185 retail salespeople and 58 retail sales managers provided the data required to evaluate the relationship between satisfaction, commitment, and various aspects of performance appraisals. The results of the study indicate that managerially mediated factors may be used to enhance salesperson job satisfaction and organizational commitment. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Directors' Recommendations on Takeover Bids and the Management of Earnings: Evidence from Australian Takeovers

This article investigates whether Australian companies manage their earnings during takeover bids in a manner consistent with the earnings-management hypothesis. This hypothesis predicts that directors who reject a bid use accrual accounting to increase current earnings, supporting their claim that the bid, relative to earnings, is inadequate. Likewise, directors who accept a bid are predicted to use accrual accounting to decrease current earnings. Overall, the results are not consistent with the earnings-management hypothesis. However, some components of unexpected accruals (our proxy for managed earnings) change in the direction predicted by the earnings-management hypothesis, although these changes are not statistically significant. Using industry adjusted performance measures the conclusion is that unexpected accruals are primarily a manifestation of poor financial performance of target firms in the period leading up to the takeover bid.