来博弈吧!

正经济学家长久以来一直在用博弈论理解世界。如今,工程师和计算机科学家也正在用这个理论重新构思他们的工作。你和一同犯下重大抢劫案的同伙都被警察抓获了,并且被关进不同的房间进行审问。如果你们两个都对犯罪保持沉默,就会被以较轻的罪名判处一年徒刑。如果你们两个都坦白交代,就都会坐5年牢。但是,如果你     

Alcohol Advertising Controls in the 1990s

Public health campaigners have criticized the British system for the regulation of alcohol advertising, which relies on several distinct codes of practice governing different media. This paper looks at the options for change, in the light of the economic, political and technological factors that will influence the development of the UK's alcohol advertising policy in the 1990s. The available evidence on the costs and benefits of alternative policies is reviewed, drawing on the Addiction Research Centre's multi-disciplinary programme of work undertaken at the Universities of Hull and York. While there is some evidence that a ban on alcohol advertising would have a marginal effect on overall consumption, it is argued that legislative intervention is no longer feasible. Technological innovation and global pressures for deregulation have made it difficult for national governments to ban the advertising of any one product. At the same time, however, it is feared that commercial pressures resulting from the introduction of satellite broadcasting and the increased competition for advertising revenues could undermine the existing self-regulatory system and exert a downwards pressure on advertising standards. It is suggested that the way forward lies in developing a strong self-regulatory system throughout Europe.     

The Effect of Payment Methods on Risk Aversion

Risk aversion experiments such as those by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) measure risk aversion by examining subjects’ responses to a series of probability-ordered choices. Subjects are paid real money rewards, using the random round payment method in which the amount is determined by one randomly selected decision. The findings reported here were obtained from 119 subjects who confronted the same choice set and payment amounts, but 60 of these subjects were paid using the random-round method while the remaining 59 were paid based on an average of all their choices, the accumulated value method. The accumulated value payment method simulates portfolio returns, as opposed to returns from stand alone investments. Results indicate that accumulated value subjects took more risk and made more inconsistent decisions.     

Restoring Wetlands Through Wetlands Mitigation Banks

This paper offers the first economic analysis of wetlands mitigation banks. The banks are a new alternative for restoration of wetlands by developers before receiving regulatory approval for future development of wetlands in the same watershed. A stochastic optimal control model is developed which incorporates ecological uncertainty of wetlands restoration. The model helps in examining the decisions of how much to invest in a wetlands mitigation bank. The model is calibrated with data from California bioeconomic parameters. Numerical simulation of the model provides a sensitivity analysis of how model parameters of restoration costs, stochastic biological growth, interest rate, and the market value of credits affect the trajectory of investment and the optimal stopping state of wetlands quality when the investment ends. The analysis reveals that restoration of the whole site will occur when there is a reduction in restoration costs, an increase in biological uncertainty or an increase in the value of wetlands credits. Continued restoration is harder to justify with a higher interest rate.