Inflation and the formation of expectations

This paper develops a model of expectations which generates paths that are consistent with observations that an acceleration of the monetary growth rate initially raises and eventually lowers real holdings of cash balances. It introduces a two-part expectations hypothesis where individuals are assumed to form expectations about the entire path of the price level and about the short-term inflation rate. Interaction between regressive and extrapolative elements induces a transitory rise in money holdings during the initial phase of inflation as expectations are that the process will reverse itself. Subsequently, as expectations catch up, the decline in desired holdings induces an overshooting of the inflation rate.     

Globally networked: Intraorganizational boundary spanning in the global organization

Multinational corporations (MNCs) need to sense, source, and mobilize knowledge when and where it arises, whether at home, or elsewhere in the world. For this reason, MNCs benefit from employee networks of relationships that span across intraorganizational barriers, allowing for the efficient mobilization of knowledge across boundaries. Yet, which organizational members are more likely to be able to develop these boundary spanning networks? We leverage a unique data set from a large multinational corporation to empirically test a comprehensive model that captures the effect of an employee’s mandate, expertise, and behavioral orientations on her likelihood to span intraorganizational boundaries that manifest themselves in the form of hierarchies, intra-functional domains, and geographic territories. We find that the employees that are more likely to be boundary spanners are those having mandates with a global impact, high levels of expertise, and a collaborative orientation in their networking behaviors. In addition, we find that these effects are stronger for those employees that have large formal workflow networks.     

Abschaffung der Abgeltungsteuer — gerechter und steuersystematisch einheitlicher?

There is a rising political discussion in Germany around abolishing the final withholding tax on capital income. The German tax reforms that introduced this tax lowered tax rates, in particular on interest income. According to some authors, the growing inequality of income and property is a strong argument for the higher taxation of capital income. However, other authors argue that the neutrality aspects concerning private investment are inadequate. An abolishment of the final withholding tax would not solve these problems and, moreover, would turn back the achieved improvements. Therefore, the German Council of Economic Experts suggests complementing the previous reforms by introducing an allowance for corporate equity.     

Network ties and entrepreneurial orientation: Innovative performance of SMEs in a developing country

This study investigates the role of intra-cluster ties, extra-cluster ties, and entrepreneurial orientation in shaping firms’ innovative performance. We conduct our analysis on a primary data set of 120 small and medium enterprises located in the Cibaduyut footwear-manufacturing cluster, Indonesia. We explore the effectiveness of knowledge acquisition through intra-cluster ties and extra-cluster ties on innovative performance. We find that extra-cluster ties mediate the relationship between proactiveness and innovative performance. Also, a combination of high extra-cluster ties and risk taking exert a positive impact on innovative performance. Surprisingly, we find that risk taking negatively moderates the influence of intra-cluster ties on innovative performance. Over-reliance on within-cluster knowledge sharing may result in the diffusion of redundant knowledge rather than making new knowledge available to the firm. Overall, our findings point to the synergistic effects of entrepreneurial orientation and extra-cluster ties on innovative performance.     

Rentenpaket: die Bundesregierung auf Irrwegen

In the summer of 2014 Germany will witness the most substantial expansion of pension expenditures since the 1950s. Yet, while this reform package was motivated mainly by the dismal prospect of rising old age poverty rates, it does little to alleviate this problem. On the contrary, its two central elements, an expansion of the pension claims of mothers whose children were born before 1992, and access to early retirement at age 63 for workers with a long insurance history, tend to benefit rather privileged groups of the insured. These measures endanger the sustainability of the German pension system and will necessitate future generations to work even longer than would have been the case otherwise.     

Can NN-algorithms and macroeconomic data improve OLS industry returns forecasts?∗

Using an extensive range of macroeconomic indicators and a number of two-stage models mixing OLS and a non-parametric approach known as the nearest neighbour algorithm, the authors analyse the potential for improving forecasts of US industry returns over those built by OLS on industry-specific variables only. Basic performance is measured by the average cross-sectional correlation over time between the 55 forecasted returns and the realized returns across industries. Since investors and asset managers typically want a steady performance over time, the volatility of this cross-sectional correlation is further taken into account in an adaptation of the Sharpe Ratio. Strong evidence is found in favour of certain macroeconomic factors as dominant industry return predictors, and some two-stage models based either purely on OLS or a mix between OLS and the non-linear model can lift both cross-sectional forecasting correlation and Sharpe Ratio. However, viewed overall in relation to the benchmark OLS model, performance is not consistently improved by any particular model.     

Determinants of smallholder farmers' perceptions of risk in the Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia

This paper reports findings from a study of 178 farm households from two contrasting areas in the Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia. It examines risk perceptions of smallholder farmers under varying contexts. The study utilized both qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis. It was hypothesized that human capital and household characteristics and orientation, access to resources, infrastructure, information and environmental factors influence perceptions of risks in different ways. Data reduction for independent variables was done by factor analysis (principal component extraction method). Factor analyses identified factors influencing smallholder farmers' perceptions of sources of risks. Logistic regression analyses were used to study the relationships of identified principal components to perceived frequencies of occurrences and consequences of various sources of risks. Logistic regression analyses revealed that asset endowments, locational settings and livelihood diversification strategies pursued determine smallholders' perceived risks. Key findings from the informal survey point out differentiation in perceptions of causes and sources of risks by different actors.     

The dividend–price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence

Unpredictable dividend growth by the dividend–price ratio is considered a ‘stylized fact’ in post war US data. Using long-term annual data from the US and three European countries, we revisit this stylized fact, and we also report results on return predictability. We make two main contributions. First, we document that for the US, results for long-horizon predictability are crucially dependent on whether returns and dividend growth are measured in nominal or real terms, and this difference is due to long-term inflation being strongly negatively predictable by the dividend–price ratio. The impact of inflation is to reinforce real return predictability and to reduce – or change direction of – real dividend growth predictability. This provides an explanation for the strong predictability of long-horizon real returns in the ‘right’ direction, and the strong predictability of long-horizon real dividend growth in the ‘wrong’ direction, that we see in US post war data. Second, we find that predictability patterns in three European stock markets are in many ways different from what characterize the US stock market. In particular, in Sweden and Denmark dividend growth is strongly predictable by the dividend–price ratio in the ‘right’ direction while returns are not predictable. The results for the UK are mixed. Our results are robust to a number of changes in the modeling framework. We discuss the results for dividend growth predictability in terms of the ‘dividend smoothing hypothesis’.