The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of the Great Depression

In this paper I analyze the London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933, an almost forgotten episode in U.S. monetary history. I study how the Conference shaped dollar policy during the second half of 1933 and early 1934. I use daily data to investigate the way in which the Conference and related policies associated to the gold standard affected commodity prices, bond prices, and the stock market. My results show that the Conference itself did not impact commodity prices or the stock market. However, it had a small effect on bond prices. I do find that the events associated with the abandonment of the gold standard impacted prices in a significant way, even before the actual monetary and currency channels were at work. These results are consistent with the “change in regime” hypothesis of Sargent (1983).     

Money demand in the euro area: new insights from disaggregated data

Conventional money demand specifications in the euro area have become unstable since 2001. We specify a money demand equation in deviations of individual euro area Member States variables from the euro area average and show that the income elasticity as well as the interest rate semi-elasticity remain stable. The corresponding deep parameters of the utility function have not changed fundamentally. Aggregate money demand instability does therefore not result from altered standard factors determining the preference for holding money. Instead, other factors determine the aggregate monetary overhang. Since monetary developments cannot easily be explained by changing preferences, they should be closely monitored as they may actually be a sign of other factors.     

Assessment of the effect produced by the fuel and energy complex on the environment and health

Power engineering in a country cannot be developed without taking into account both the environmental situation already existing in the region and the new requirements for its quality according to the recommendations of the EU, WHO, and other world organizations. Fuel production and power plants are often situated in communities with a raised level of pollution or even in those which have already been recognized as zones of environmental emergency. The fuel and energy complex (FEC) is one of the basic sources of pollution in the atmosphere. The management decisions on FEC expansion should be accompanied, in a mandatory order, by estimation of the risk to health and by measures for its reduction to a tolerable level. Ecologically unprofessional decisions on construction and/or expansion of FEC facilities may lead to further deterioration of living and health conditions.     

Exchange Rate Regime and Demand for Reserves: Evidence from Kenya,Mexico and Philippines

This paper empirically investigates the demand for international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) during fixed and floating exchange rates periods in three developing countries: Kenya, Mexico and Philippines. Based on theoretical models, three factors are identified as important for the demand of international reserves and foreign reserves: average propensity to import, volume of imports and variability of reserves. The paper employs the cointegration methodology and error correction method to investigate the relationships. Cointegration tests results indicate a reliable long-run stationary relationship between the international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) and the stated explanatory variables across countries and sub-periods of fixed and clean float. The error correction results indicate causality from the explanatory variables to the reserves during both the short and long run. This is true during both the fixed and the floating periods.

Gibrat’s Law with Mild Nonrandom Growth

Gibrat’s Law (GL) has repeatedly failed to gain full empirical confirmation in specific industries. This study offers a deliberately favorable opportunity for full confirmation in the truckload sector of the U.S. trucking industry where firms are highly homogeneous. As such, most nonrandom determinants of growth remain very similar for all firms, so significant differences in growth rates are not expected. Still, there is only incomplete support: (1) long term growth rates are not equal for all firms, but the differences are small and not size-related except for the smallest firms, and (2) the size distributions better approximate lognormal when the smallest firms are excluded, but in no case does the variance rise over time. This suggests that for most other industries, where nonrandom growth should be much stronger, GL would seem unlikely to play more than a minor role in portraying actual firm growth or the evolution of market structure.     

Long-term forecast of Vologda oblast’s socioeconomic development

The article generalizes the experience in working out a long-term forecast of Vologda oblast’s socioeconomic development. Dynamic and structural characteristics of the oblast’s development are analyzed on the basis of statistical data. A set of models for forecasting regional economic development is presented. The main scenarios of the region’s long-term evolution are described. Quantitative characteristics of the development of Vologda oblast for the period up to 2020 are presented.     

Teaching the coase theorem: Are we getting it right?

The authors examine current textbook representations of Coase's analysis of negative externalities [Coase, 1960]. Standard treatments identify Coase's ideas with Stigler's Coase Theorem: a zero transaction cost world in which efficient solutions emerge automatically, regardless of legal rules and the initial allocation of rights. Yet Coase's seminal paper breaks from this mode of analysis. The authors use this intellectual history to distinguish two approaches to negative externalities: blackboard (Pigou, Stigler, Samuelson) and Coasean. They survey 45 microeconomics textbooks and find that 80 percent misrepresent Coase's arguments. They argue that a Coasean approach increases students' critical thinking skills by challenging them to move beyond simple laissez faire or interventionist solutions.