Integrated data-driven analytics to identify instability signatures in nonstationary financial time series

With the objective of identifying instability signatures of the financial system, this article integrates two classes of data-driven techniques. The first class of techniques is utilized to investigate macroeconomic behaviour by aggregating an ensemble of heterogeneous nonstationary time-series data and the second class of techniques examines the local dynamics of the microstructures in each time series. Moving window principal component analysis (PCA) and functional PCA (fPCA) are shown to extract collective signatures of the financial system for understanding macroeconomic behaviour, and the Synchrosqueezing and Markov switching techniques are used to study local dynamics within each individual time series. The integrated data analytics successfully identifies the diverse events from 1986 to 2012. All events, both major and minor, have been identified by fPCA. The major economic events, especially the 2008 Great Recession, along with several minor events, showed a strong leading indicator in the density index derived from Synchrosqueezing. The capability of this integrated analytics suite is demonstrated in this article, and it motivates further studies encompassing data sets from broader sectors. As a complement to existing model-driven approach, this would lead to achieving a robust and reliable method that can help in taking measures to avoid catastrophic collapse in the constantly evolving financial system.     

Exploring career advantages of highly skilled migrants: a study of Indian academics in the UK

We draw on Bourdieu's theory of practice to examine a group of Indian academics' accounts of their careers in a research-intensive university. Using the concepts of habitus and capital, we argue that international staff are very well placed to craft a career in the increasingly market driven UK academic context, challenging the discourse of disadvantage associated with the careers of international academics as well as other highly skilled migrants. Central in our analysis is the transferability of capitals between different fields and the importance of understanding capital as part of the multiple fields that agents belong to. However, drawing attention to the changing rules of the research-intensive university system, we also suggest that these academics' career trajectory may not continue to yield positive results.     

Managing decision-making with certainty of threat

Several factors, such as emotion and uncertainty of the outcome, influence decision-making. We assessed decision-making during a risky event (natural hazard, focusing here on two types of volcanic threats) by manipulating the certainty of lethal threat in an information campaign. We hypothesized that the reduction of uncertainty of lethal threat in an information campaign would improve behavior through more suitable choices by reducing the use of emotional choices. In the scenario that occurred in a familiar place, participants who received information with uncertainty of lethal threat presented more emotional and comfortable choices, such as staying at home, rather than detached ones, such as leaving the area. These were either appropriate (for volcanic ash cloud) or inappropriate (for pyroclastic flow). The certainty hypothesis was partially validated, as certainty influenced the quality of choice in the scenarios that took place at home. Furthermore, participants in the volcanic disaster context presented less suitable decisions compared to those in the neutral context, which was discussed in terms of the presence of emotions, such as fear of volcanic eruption. Our results highlight the importance of controlling the comforting emotional aspect of the home environment in any information communication.     

To Avenge or Not to Avenge? Exploring the Interactive Effects of Moral Identity and the Negative Reciprocity Norm

Across three studies, the authors examine the interactive effects of moral identity and the negative reciprocity norm in predicting revenge. The general argument is that moral identity provides the motivational impetus for individuals’ responses, whereas the normative framework that people adopt as a basis for guiding moral action (e.g., negative reciprocity norm) influences the direction of the response. Results indicated that moral identity and the negative reciprocity norm significantly interacted to predict revenge. More specifically, the symbolization dimension of moral identity interacted with the negative reciprocity norm to predict revenge when individuals were the targets of mistreatment, whereas the internalization dimension of moral identity interacted with the negative reciprocity norm to predict revenge when individuals were the observers of mistreatment. Theoretical implications related to the differences between the symbolization and internalization dimensions of moral identity, the importance of examining normative frameworks, and the functionality of revenge are discussed.     

What is holding back housing?

There are two major factors constraining the homeownership rate today: limited supply relative to net household formation and restricted credit availability. In this paper, we carefully document each of these factors, arguing that is is very difficult to fix the supply issues, as so much of the problem is local zoning laws, while steps can be taken to fix the credit availability issues. The supply/demand imbalance is currently the more significant of the two problems, as it places upward pressure on both home prices and rents.     

Market efficiency, discount-rate changes, and stock returns: A long-term perspective

This paper examines the market efficiency issue by analyzing stock returns surrounding Fed announcements of discount-rate changes. Based on an analysis ofex post returns over a 58-year period, the results provide evidence of long-term market efficiency. Consistent with recent literature, the findings also reveal some predictability in return patterns where an active trading strategy based on directional reversals in the pattern of discount rate changes outperforms a passive buy-and-hold approach. The results indicate that the proposed active trading produces substantially higher risk-adjusted returns than the buy-and-hold strategy.     

Workplace Flexibilities,Job Satisfaction and Union Membership in the US Workforce

Using individual‐level data from the 2008 National Study of the Changing Workforce, we quantify how workers' job satisfaction levels correlate with five schedule‐based workplace flexibilities. The data permit us to control for numerous variables that might otherwise explain variation in the probability of job satisfaction, including, but not limited to, income, benefits, stress, depression, job control and individual preferences over flexibilities. Conditional on this control set, we find that workplace flexibilities correlate with an 8.1 per cent increase in job satisfaction. The relationship between job satisfaction and workplace flexibilities prevails through several sensitivity analyses, bias assessments and a propensity score matching analysis. We also explore how job satisfaction, union membership and workplace flexibilities intermix; we find that workplace flexibilities may function as a partial substitute for union membership.