A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

Financing New Farm Entrants: The Long-term Leasing Option

The financing of agriculture has received much attention in recent years, with particular emphases on the financing of new farm entrants. This has been brought about by the underlying economic conditions of the agricultural production system and the policy responses to these conditions. Canadian agriculture has experienced an almost complete boom-and-bust cycle in commodity prices since 1971. This led to a cycle in real estate values, causing financial stress on farms that resulted in an increase in farm failures. In response to this situation, various financial instruments have been proposed to alleviate this financial stress. Unfortunately, these have had no appreciable effect on the financial well-being of Canadian farms. Most of these responses take as a given that Canadian farms should be owned and operated by the same economic unit. This paper suggests that long-term leasing of real estate would reduce the financial stress for these farms by removing the cost-of-ownership component of a farm purchase and thus reduce the cash flow required to enter farming. A cash flow analysis is used to support these arguments, using a Saskatchewan grain farm case example. Le financement agricole a reçu beaucoup d'attention depuis ces derniéres années, tout particuliérement en ce qui attrait au financement de la reléve agricole. Ceci faisait suite aux conditions économiques actuelles du systéme de production agricole et des réformes politiques qui en découlent. L'agriculture canadienne a vu son prix des denrées soumis à un cycle presque complet de «boom and bust» depuis 1971. Le cycle des valeurs immobiliéres qui s'en est suivit a crée un stress financier qui entraîna une augmentation des faillites agricoles. Pour remédier au probléme, plusieurs outils financiers ont été proposés. Malheureusement, leur impact sur le bien-être financier des fermes canadiennes n'a pas eu l'effet escompté. La plupart de ces réponses prennent pour acquis que les fermes canadiennes devraient être possédées et opérées par la même unité économique. Ce papier suggére que la location à long terme des propriétés agricoles devrait réduire le stress financier, en éliminant le coût à la propriété lors de l'achat d'une ferme permettant ainsi de réduire le fond de roulement requis pour débuter en agriculture. L'analyse du fond de roulement est utilisé pour supporter ces arguments en employant comme example le cas d'une ferme cére Aaliére en Saskatchewan.     

中国对美直接投资现状分析与发展对策建议

中国对美直接投资（FDI）在过去近10年时间里保持着快速增长态势,并拥有良好的发展前景。文章归纳了中国对美FDI所表现出的基本特征,全面分析了近年来促进中国对美FDI增长的驱动因素,以及国内企业在对美FDI中遇到的制约因素,指出为继续推动中国对美FDI的快速发展,需要中美两国加强政治上的互信与理解,也需要中国企业充分熟知美国的投资规则,提高自身投资管理技能。     

关于后危机时代我国商业银行可持续发展策略的思考

银行业的可持续发展,就是在保持银行业与实体经济协调发展的前提下,自身资源配置不断趋于均衡合理、金融风险得到有效控制、金融生态环境持续优化、经济效益和竞争力不断增强的过程。文章从内外部环境分析了我国商业银行可持续发展的推动因素,并从顺应结构调整要求完善信贷业务经营模式,健全资本管理体制,强化全面风险管理机制以及坚持可持续金融创新战略等角度,提出＂十二五＂时期商业银行可持续发展策略建议。     

Police Pay and Bargaining in the UK, 1978–2000

Police pay and conditions in the UK are governed by a unique mechanism, the Police Negotiating Board. This paper reviews the circumstances in which it was set up and examines the outcomes, relative to other public service workers, over the first twenty years of its operation. Recent developments highlight the role of ministerial intervention and raise questions about the relationship between the PNB negotiating system and working practice at police force level.