美国对华出口管制与美对华贸易逆差:实质与对策

本文运用实证分析方法,对美国对华技术出口管制的历史和现状进行较为系统、深入的分析研究．指出美国对华技术出口管制是造成美对华贸易逆差的主要原因;并就促进美国对华技术出口、实现中美贸易平衡问题,提出了对策和建议。     

中资银行海外拓展战略的实例研究——以工行、中行和招行为例

顺应我国商业银行资产规模日益扩大的现实需要,及经济金融全球化的外部趋势,当前中资银行纷纷加入海外拓展的行列,并根据自身特点,实施各有特色的发展战略。文章以工商银行、中国银行、招商银行为典型代表,结合其海外拓展实例,从战略目标、战略路径、战略重点等层面剖析及比较了中资银行的海外发展战略,并提出进一步发展建议。     

Consideration of the social context of auditors’ reliance on expert system output during evaluation of loan loss reserves

Auditors are accountable for judgments made within the social context of the accounting firm. Tetlock (1985) states that decision makers often use the acceptability heuristic to cope with accountability. According to this heuristic, individuals make decisions which they are reasonably confident will be acceptable by others to whom they are accountable. When auditors form judgments with the aid of expert system output, they must determine the appropriate level of reliance on the expert system output. Since the expert system output is based on the input of experts, auditors may decide the output is ‘acceptable‘ and overrely on the output. In addition, because of the conservative nature of the accounting firm, expert system output which is negative may be viewed as more acceptable than positive output leading to greater overreliance. The results indicate that auditors do overrely on expert system output and rely to a greater degree on output which is negative versus output which is positive. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Paradigm Shifts in Economic Theory and Policy

In most countries, mainstream economic policy has not yet undergone any significant change, and there is little consensus on what, if anything, ought to replace it. However, there are some signs of an emerging transition, at several levels.     

The Role of Central Government in Tax Competition Between Heterogenous Regions

This paper analyzes the role of central government in a Nash tax competition between two heterogenous regions, which differ in their endowments of two production factors. Regional governments use a source-based unit tax on mobile capital to finance their public service expenditures. The central government employs excise subsidies and lump-sum taxes to induce the two regions to efficient resource allocations. We answer to the question that whether the central government can induce an efficient equilibrium, and investigate the effects of endowments difference on the optimum subsidy rates. We find that there exists a unique tax rate under which the efficiency is achieved. We identify the set of endowment allocations for which the subsidy rate to one region is higher (or lower) than the subsidy rate to the rival. The large poor region receives a higher subsidy than the small rich region, but the subsidy to the small poor region may be higher or lower than that to the large rich region. [H2]     

Financial Factors and the Empirical Behavior of Money Demand: A Case Study of Malaysia

The paper analyses the roles of financial factors in the behavior of M1 and M2 demands for Malaysia. The focus is on the possible changes in the elasticities of the M1 and M2 money demands in the environment of financial innovations and on the influence of real stock prices on the holdings of monetary assets. Our results reinforce existing studies that find the presence of the long-run M1 and M2 money demands and structural instability in the dynamic specification of the M1 demand. However, we are able to identify stable error-correction model for the post-1986 M1 demand and for the M2 demand. Our results also indicate the reduction in the Long run income and exchange rate elasticities of the money demands. Meanwhile, the interest rate sensitivity of the demands becomes more inelastic. Lastly, we document the significance of real stock prices in influencing the demand behavior, indicating the dominance of the wealth effect over the substitution effect. [E41, E44]     

Trade Policy and Productivity Growth in OECD Manufacturing *

Trade liberalization may promote economic growth in a number of ways, including by accelerating the rate of technological change. Firms that face more intense import competition may be spurred to greater rates of innovation; firms which export may absorb new technologies through their contact with international markets. This paper examines evidence on trade policy and productivity growth for a sample of thirteen OECD countries and including eighteen manufacturing sectors, using data primarily from the 1980s. Within individual sectors, there are strong productivity convergence effects within the OECD. After controlling for convergence, we find a positive association between high rates of productivity growth and low tariffs, and between high productivity growth and strong export performance. We found no particular association between high productivity growth and import penetration. The results are consistent with the possibility of positive linkages between trade liberalization and accelerated productivity growth. [F1, O4]     

Foreign Ownership,Equity Arbitrage and Strategic Trade Policy *

This paper investigates whether the cost of environmental regulation influences the international location of polluting industries. Industries that operate production facilities in developing countries are identified through their use of the offshore assembly provisions in the U.S. tariff Code. Pollutions Intensity of industry output is found to significantly reduce the probability of conducting offshore assembly in developing countries. This finding contradicts the arguments that developing countries are becoming pollution havens as a result of offshore assembly independent of their general disregard for the environment. Integrating production across national boundaries might actually enhance worldwide environmental quality. Relatively clean stages of the production process are being transferred to developing countries with lax environmental regulations, while polluting segments remain in the U.S. where strict environmental controls are enforced. [F1, Q2]     

Interest Rates and Wage Indexation

The growth effects of European economic and monetary intergration and the progress of

regional convergence across Europe depend on whether economic in Europe is consistent with a neoclassical or an endogenous growth model. Using annual data from the 1950-1992 period for each of 20 European economies, the paper finds that steady-state real growth rates are generally unaffected by changes in the investment rate, population growth, and government consumption, evidence consistent with neoclassical growth theories. This Strengthens the likelihood of regional (perhaps conditional) convergence, and suggests that the effects of greater monetary and economic unification will be in terms of higher incomes per capita, but not in terms of permanently higher growth rates.[O40,F43]     

Purchasing Power Parity By sectors From Selected European Countries: Cointegration and Structural Breaks

In this paper we study the long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis by traded and non-traded sectors using cointegration techniques in the presence of structural breaks, for a set of European countries during the period 1975:1-1995:12. This approach is complementary to many existing approaches to investigate the PPP Hypothesis. We find evidence in favor of long-run PPP hypothesis when commodity prices and used in the presence of structural breaks. This result lends support to the integration process in the European Union. [C22, F30]