The serial correlation structure for a random process with steps

Summary We derive the detailed correlation structure for the simple “staircase model”: a process where white noise is superimposed on a deterministic step function that has equal rises and equal treads. It turns out that this structure is an immediate generalisation of that for a linear trend (which, for discrete data, can be alternatively considered as a step function with equal rises and unit treads). We compare the structure obtained with that for a random walk, and those for a subset of other ARIMA(p, 1,q) models, and those of general ARIMA(p, d, q) processes withd>1.     

Utility and economics

Summary Although utility has been the central concept in economics, economists have paid relatively little attention to its measurement. Generally, utility is measured indirectly via the revealed preference approach. We discuss problems with this approach and next introduce alternative direct measurement methods. The direct measurement methods are seen to spawn a so-called theory of preference formation, which explains differences in utility functions of different individuals. The similarities of this theory with related theories in sociology and psychology, and various sorts of empirical evidence, are reviewed. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for economic theories.This is a slightly adapted version of my inaugural address at Tilburg University. I thank Tom Wansbeek for his helpful comments.     

Agency in a market setting

This paper examines a market in which a continuum of principals and agents interact in a game. Principals offer contracts while agents decide on sets of acceptable contracts. A mechanism from a class satisfying efficiency, unbiasedness, and continuity properties then matches principals and agents. With risk neutral agents, when the contribution of principals and agents to the total gains from trade in a pairing are additively separable, the equilibria of the game coincide with the competitive equilibria for the market. In particular, all contracts used in Nash equilibrium induce first-best effort levels. Both principals and agents have exogenous opportunities outside this market. In equilibrium, agents have endogenously determined outside opportunities available from employment by another principal, and this may be the binding participation constraint in a principal-agent pairing. The results are extended to special non-separable cases and to the case of identical risk averse agents.We are grateful to seminar participants at Indiana University, the University of Kentucky, and Vanderbilt University for comments on earlier versions of this work. Referees' comments led us to generalize the model and to more clearly specify the point of the paper.     

The work of leadership

More and more companies today are facing adaptive challenges: changes in societies, markets, and technology around the globe are forcing them to clarify their values, develop new strategies, and learn new ways of operating. And the most important task for leaders in the face of such challenges is mobilizing people throughout the organization to do adaptive work. Yet for many senior executives, providing such leadership is difficult. Why? One reason is that they are accustomed to solving problems themselves. Another is that adaptive change is distressing for the people going through it. They need to take on new roles, relationships, values, and approaches to work. Many employees are ambivalent about the sacrifices required of them and look to senior executives to take problems off their shoulders. But both sets of expectations have to be unlearned. Rather than providing answers, leaders have to ask tough questions. Rather than protecting people from outside threats, leaders should let the pinch of reality stimulate them to adapt. Instead of orienting people to their current roles, leaders must disorient them so that new relationships can develop. Instead of quelling conflict, leaders should draw the issues out. Instead of maintaining norms, leaders must challenge "the way we do business" and help others distinguish immutable values from the historical practices that have become obsolete. The authors offer six principles for leading adaptive work: "getting on the balcony," identifying the adaptive challenge, regulating distress, maintaining disciplined attention, giving the work back to people, and protecting voices of leadership from below.     

Simultaneous estimation after selection and ranking and other procedures: The negative exponential case

We considerk (≥2) independent negative exponential populations with unknown location parameters and unknown but equal scale parameter. We incorporate the existing purely sequential and three-stage sampling procedures for selecting the “best” population and study the asymptotic second-order characteristics of the proposed fixed-size simultaneous confidence regions for the location parameters constructed after selection and ranking. Some direct estimation procedures have also been discussed.