Comparability: An analytic examination

Comparability is often invoked as an evaluative criterion in regulatory and financial reporting controversies. This article explores the issue by first developing a formal model of comparability that is consistent with the prior information economics literature regarding normative criteria. This model is then used in a restricted setting to explore how such criteria might eventually be used to establish preference relationships.     

HIV prevalence for New York State using Newborn Seroprevalence and AIDS Surveillance Data

The objective of this work is to estimate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in the adult populations of New York City, and of New York State (NYS) excluding New York City. Evidence is presented that not all HIV-infected persons live long enough to satisfy an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) diagnosis. The term preAIDS mortality refers to the mortality of HIV-infected persons, due to any cause, before they can be diagnosed with AIDS. The effect of preAIDS mortality on the estimate of HIV incidence, using back calculation of AIDS Surveillance Data, is to produce low-biased estimates of HIV incidence and prevalence.Estimates of HIV prevalence in women of childbearing age were obtained from the Newborn Seroprevalence Survey [Lessner L. The estimation of HIV prevalence for women of childbearing age in New York City, presently under review]. HIV-positive women in this population typically do not have an opportunistic infection. Thus estimates of HIV prevalence in this population occurred earlier in the spectrum of HIV disease then when they finally satisfied the definition of AIDS that depends on incidence of an opportunistic disease. These earlier estimates of HIV prevalence in women were found to be substantially larger then those obtained from back calculation using female AIDS Surveillance Data. This comparison was used to obtain a quantitative measure R of the effect of preAIDS mortality on HIV prevalence: where 1/R equals the proportion of HIV-infected intravenous drug users that become AIDS cases The preAIDS mortality adjustment factor R was used in the estimation of HIV prevalence and incidence for NYS. We believe that the use of the adjustment factor resulted in more accurate estimates. Using this factor, our estimated HIV incidence for New York City in 1991 was nearly 26% larger than without the adjustment while projected HIV prevalence for 1996 was nearly 27% larger. The paper estimates HIV prevalence. The AIDS Surveillance operation uses AIDS cases to back calculate HIV incidence and prevalence. Since many HIV-infected intravenous drug using (IDU) population die before they become an AIDS case, the estimates from the back calculation are low biased. Low biased because there were many HIV-infected people who died before they ever satisfied the AIDS protocol. The totals presented here adjust for preAIDS mortality and are necessarily larger than what was recorded by the NYS Dept. of Health. After the change in the definition of AIDS to simply HIV prevalence and the change to electronic reporting, the totals were mostly HIV cases reported in the given year and not AIDS. Thus there is no comparison. This paper represents the last best look at the natural history of AIDS in NYS.     

Incorporating contemporaneous residual relationships: A new approach

A direct (and easy to use) measure for capturing any information contained in the contemporaneous relationships among the residuals of different equations is derived herein from the moment generating function of the joint probability density function of the residuals.     

Has International Financial Integration Increased?

This paper compares the behavior of real interest rate differentials across the major countries under the Bretton Woods regime and the regime of floating exchanges that replaced it. The primary object is to investigate both the extent of market integration and its changes over time. For all fifteen possible country pairs real interest differentials are mean reverting, and in two-thirds of these cases indistinguishable from zero statistically. For all country pairs on average and for most such pairs individually, moreover, the estimated differentials are not appreciably different in absolute value than the differentials that we estimate for various money-market rates within the United States. Additional evidence points to a narrowing of differentials under floating rates over time and an increase in speeds of convergence.     

Global M&A: Still the chocolate industry sweetspot?

Like a dividing cell under the microscope, the American snack food market has split apart into two distinct cells, each with its own unique consumer DNA. The two market segments can best be defined as legacy consumers and next‐generation consumers. This tectonic shift in the confectionery industry may make global industry‐giant mergers more a battle between dinosaurs, lit by meteor light.     

Is Africa integrating? Evidence from product markets

This paper presents a price-based assessment of product market integration in Africa using disaggregated retail prices for 91 products and 12 African cities from 1991 to 2008. We find evidence of substantial deviations from the law of one price ? product price differences between the cities averaged 76% over the period – a result that is consistent with the presence of large barriers to trade in the continent. Mean price differences across cities fell by close to a quarter over the period, but the decline was concentrated in the early 1990s with little progress subsequently, despite the regional trade policies implemented by the countries. Gravity-style estimates reveal that reductions in external tariffs and global trends towards price convergence in the early 1990s are the key contributors to the trend in price integration amongst the African cities.     

The Effects of Food Color on Perceived Flavor: A Factorial Investigation in India

We extend research testing the effects of food color on flavor to a new cultural setting—India. We test color’s effect at three levels: flavor identification, perception, and preference. One hundred twenty-two graduate students at an Indian business school enrolling students from all parts of India were assigned the task of tasting and evaluating an orange-flavored carbonated water. Color at two levels (purple and orange) and label information at two levels (told orange flavor, told grape) were manipulated in a full factorial, between-subjects design. Results confirm that food color affects the consumer’s ability to correctly identify flavor as well as to form distinct flavor profiles and preferences. Food color dominates other flavor information including labeling and taste, though the strength of the effect is less pronounced in this setting. Strategic alternatives for the effective deployment of food color for promotional purposes are recommended.