HOW ROBUST ARE ESTIMATES OF EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATES: THE CASE OF CHINA

Abstract.  Assessments of a country's real exchange rate relative to its 'equilibrium' value as suggested by 'fundamental' determinants have received increasing attention. Using China as an example, the present paper illustrates models commonly used to derive equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. The large variance in the estimates raises serious questions about the robustness of these results. The basic conclusion is that, at least for China, small changes in model specifications, explanatory variable definitions, and time periods used in estimation can lead to very substantial differences in equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Therefore, such estimates should be treated with great caution.     

An experimental approach to valuing new differentiated products

An experimental store was created to evaluate initial demand for locally produced and guaranteed tender steak products as a more realistic alternative to contingent valuation (CV) and dichotomous-choice experimental methods. Strengths of the approach are incentive compatibility, a realistic consumption set, and a familiar choice environment. Consumers selected among USDA Choice, premium quality, lean, guaranteed tender and locaily produced strip steaks. A double-hurdle count data model indicated initial willingness-to-pay (WTP) for locally produced steak comparable to prior CV results, but demand was highly elastic. Demand for premium quality steak crowded out demand for the guaranteed tender product, contrasting with prior dichotomous-choice experimental results.     

Dynamic estimation of volatility risk premia and investor risk aversion from option-implied and realized volatilities

This paper proposes a method for constructing a volatility risk premium, or investor risk aversion, index. The method is intuitive and simple to implement, relying on the sample moments of the recently popularized model-free realized and option-implied volatility measures. A small-scale Monte Carlo experiment confirms that the procedure works well in practice. Implementing the procedure with actual S&P500 option-implied volatilities and high-frequency five-minute-based realized volatilities indicates significant temporal dependencies in the estimated stochastic volatility risk premium, which we in turn relate to a set of macro-finance state variables. We also find that the extracted volatility risk premium helps predict future stock market returns.     

Improving Estimates of Inequality and Poverty from Urban China's Household Income and Expenditure Survey

In urban China the Household Income and Expenditure Survey requires respondents to keep a daily expenditure diary for a full 12-month period. This onerous reporting task makes it difficult to recruit respondents, compromising the sample. This article uses monthly expenditure data from two urban areas of China to see if data collection short-cuts, such as extrapolating to annual totals from expenditure reports in only some months of the year, would harm the accuracy of annual expenditure, inequality and poverty estimates. Replacing 12-month diaries with simple extrapolations from either one, two, four or six months would cause a sharp increase in estimates of annual inequality and poverty. This undermines international comparisons of inequality statistics because no country other than China uses such comprehensive 12-month expenditure records. But a corrected form of extrapolation, based on correlations between the same household's expenditures in different months of the year, gives much smaller errors in estimates of inequality and poverty.     

Ethical decision making in the medical profession: An application of the theory of planned behavior

The present study applied Ajzen's (1985) theory of planned behavior to the explanation of ethical decision making. Nurses in three hospitals were provided with scenarios that depicted inadequate patient care and asked if they would report health professionals responsible for the situation. Study results suggest that the theory of planned behavior can explain a significant amount of variation in the intent to report a colleague. Attitude toward performing the behavior explained a large portion of the variance; subjective norms explained a moderate amount of the variance; and, perceived behavioral control added little to the explanation of variance. Implications for research and practice are discussed. Donna M. Randall is an Associate Professor in Management and Systems at Washington State University. Her research interests include organizational commitment, media coverage of elite crime, and ethical issues in management. Her publications have appeared in such journals as Decision Sciences, Academy of Management Review, and Journal of Business Ethics. Annetta M. Gibson is a doctoral student in the Department of Accounting and Business Law at Washington State University and a CPA. Her research interests lie in the area of behavioral accounting and ethical issues in auditing, accounting, and management. She has published in the Journal of Business Ethics.     

Planning Behavior Variables in Small Firms

Much of the empirical data that identifies the incidence of planning in small firms and the variables associated with that planning is based on small samples subject to geographic and industry constraints. The intent of this article is to partially overcome those limitations by testing relationships using results from a large Australian-wide, multiple-period sample. For each of three years, the frequency with which firms maintained documented business plans was determined and tested for associations with a range of traditional "business structure" demographic variables and a group of "management structure" variables. Results support expectations that size, volume, training, intention to change operations, and the major decision-maker's education are positively associated with business planning. Results also indicate that a significant number of firms change planning behavior states over time.     

The impact of attributions about life events on perceptions of foreign products: Contrasts in individualism and collectivism

An event important to a consumer that occurred in a foreign country may serve to affect perceptions about the products from the country. Life events represent important experiences or circumstances that tend to exert a major influence on the individual. This article examines how consumer attributions made about a life event occurring in a foreign country vary across individuals from individualist and collectivist cultures, which serve to moderate the impact of the event on product perceptions. The research literature on life events, attribution theory, and cross‐cultural differences are used to formulate propositions regarding the relationship between life‐event attributions and subsequent perceptions of products from the foreign country. Implications and research directions are provided. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Cost‐ and Income‐based Measures of Human Capital

Human capital is increasingly believed to play an important role in the growth process, however, adequately measuring its stock remains controversial. In this paper three general approaches to measurement are identified; cost‐based, income‐based and educational stock‐based. This survey focuses on the first two approaches and provides a critical review of the theories and their applications to data from a range of countries. Particular emphasis is placed upon the work of Jorgenson and Fraumeni (1989, 1992) and some new results for New Zealand based upon their approach are also presented.