A note on dependence between a venture and a current prospect

Some sufficient conditions that a random variable be positively correlated with every strictly decreasing function of a second random variable are developed and applied to the problem of choosing the optimal amount of an uncertain venture. Two of the conditions generalize conditions previously employed by Samuelson [5] and Scheffman [6].     

Mapping your innovation strategy

In the complex sport of American football, teams rely on playbooks as thick as the Manhattan phone directory. But when it comes to creating innovative growth businesses-which is at least as complicated as professional football--most companies have not developed detailed game plans. Indeed, many managers have concluded that a fog enshrouds the world of innovation, obscuring high-potential opportunities. The authors believe that companies can penetrate that fog by developing growth strategies based on disruptive innovations, as defined by Clayton Christensen. Such innovations conform to a pattern: They offer an entirely new solution; they perform adequately along traditional dimensions and much better along other dimensions that matter more to target customers; and they are not initially appealing to powerful incumbents. Companies can develop customized checklists, or playbooks, by combining this basic pattern with analysis of major innovations in their markets. The key early on is to focus not on detailed financial estimates--which will always guide companies toward the markets most hostile to disruptive innovations--but on how well the innovation fits the pattern of success. It's also crucial to encourage flexibility: Companies must be willing to kill projects that are going nowhere, exempt innovations from standard development processes, and avoid burdening project teams with extra financing, which can keep them heading in the wrong direction. Companies can create competitive advantage by becoming champions at defining the pattern of successful innovations and executing against it. But as that pattern becomes obvious--and others emerge-building a sustainable advantage on innovation competencies will again prove elusive.     

Health state utilities associated with caring for an individual with cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL)

Abstract

Aim

Cutaneous T-cell Lymphoma (CTCL) is a rare form of non-Hodgkin lymphoma characterized by skin lesions, which can negatively impact the quality of life of both patients and their caregivers. The Decision Support Unit (DSU) at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK recently outlined a rationale for the inclusion of caregiver burden in economic evaluations. This study aimed to estimate utilities for health states associated with being a caregiver for an individual with CTCL at different stages of treatment.     

Aggregate and distributional impacts of China’s household responsibility system

It is 40 years since China started to abandon collective farming, with initial rural reforms in 1978 that culminated in adoption of the household responsibility system (HRS). Existing studies of impacts of these reforms do not consider nonrandom spread of the HRS, spillovers from early adopters, or distributional effects. In this paper, the synthetic control method and spatial autoregressive panel models with autoregressive errors are used to estimate impacts of the HRS that account for these features. The HRS had a significant positive effect on grain output and food supply in China, while also helping to reduce regional inequality.     

Reconciling culturalist and rationalist approaches: leadership in the United States and Turkey

This article empirically investigated the invariance and discriminant validity of a six-factor leadership model across two very divergent cultures: the United States and Turkey. In conjunction with the rationalist approach to international management, it was hypothesized that the same range of six leadership styles would appear in both cultures. However, coinciding with the culturalist approach to international management, it was also hypothesized that managers would emphasize different styles in each culture. Turkish and US managers each completed the Leadership Effectiveness Questionnaire measuring degree of emphasis placed on six leadership styles. Results of the test of model invariance indicated that the six styles existed in both cultures; however, discriminant analysis demonstrated that the Autocratic and Consensus styles differentiated managers best. Turkish managers emphasized the Autocratic style to a greater extent and the Consensus style to a lesser extent than did US managers. Implications for international management are discussed. ©1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Do School Principals Respond to Increased Public Scrutiny? New Survey Evidence from Australia

We explore responses of Australian school principals to the introduction of test score reporting via the My School website in 2010. Theory suggests that heightened public scrutiny should motivate principals to adopt best practices for improving their schools' test results. We use responses from both public and private schools to a custom‐built questionnaire administered to principals before (2009) and after (2012) the My School website launch. We find scarce evidence of meaningful adjustments over time, but we do find evidence of significantly different policies and practices across school groups.     

Where can obesity management policy make the largest impact? Evaluating sub-populations through a microsimulation approach

Background: There is a critical need to focus limited resources on sub-groups of patients with obesity where we expect the largest return on investment. This paper identifies patient sub-groups where an investment may result in larger positive economic and health outcomes.

Methods: The baseline population with obesity was derived from a public survey database and divided into sub-populations defined by demographics and disease status. In 2016, a validated model was used to simulate the incidence of diabetes, absenteeism, and direct medical cost in five care settings. Research findings were derived from the difference in population outcomes with and without weight loss over 15 years. Modeled weight loss scenarios included initial 5% or 12% reduction in body mass index followed by a gradual weight regain. Additional simulations were conducted to show alternative outcomes from different time courses and maintenance scenarios.

Results: Univariate analyses showed that age 45–64, pre-diabetes, female, or obesity class III are independently predictive of larger savings. After considering the correlation between these factors, multivariate analyses projected young females with obesity class I as the optimal sub-group to control obesity-related medical expenditures. In contrast, the population aged 20–35 with obesity class III will yield the best health outcomes. Also, the sub-group aged 45–54 with obesity class I will produce the biggest productivity improvement. Each additional year of weight loss maintained showed increased financial benefits.

Conclusions: This paper studied the heterogeneity between many sub-populations affected by obesity and recommended different priorities for decision-makers in economic, productivity, and health realms.     

Modeling economic systems as locally-constructive sequential games

Real-world economies are open-ended dynamic systems consisting of heterogeneous interacting participants. Human participants are decision-makers who strategically take into account the past actions and potential future actions of other participants. All participants are forced to be locally constructive, meaning their actions at any given time must be based on their local states; and participant actions at any given time affect future local states. Taken together, these essential properties imply real-world economies are locally-constructive sequential games. This paper discusses a modeling approach, Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE), that permits researchers to study economic systems from this point of view. ACE modeling principles and objectives are first concisely presented and explained. The remainder of the paper then highlights challenging issues and edgier explorations that ACE researchers are currently pursuing.     

Diversification Bias and the Law of One Price: An Experiment on Index Mutual Funds

Individual investors select high-fee index mutual funds despite the fact that the future payouts are nearly identical. The authors offer an explanation for this violation of the law of one price based on investor desire to diversify. While diversification in some settings may be beneficial, in the case of assets with identical payouts, fee minimization is the only rational strategy. The evidence confirms that investors diversify by selecting multiple higher fee funds rather than minimizing fees when investing in index mutual funds.     

The determinants of retail petrol prices in Greece

The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between retail prices of petrol, international oil prices and tax rates in Greece. We examine not only the hypothesis that retail prices act asymmetrically to crude oil price changes and the pass-through rates of tax increases, but also use the cross-sectional dimension of the data to explore whether the existence or otherwise of market power affects retail prices. Our results provide little evidence for asymmetric behaviour. However, the degree to which prices overreact to tax changes and the significance of market power across the different regions suggests that the market for petrol/diesel is not very competitive.