Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend

We estimate the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a panel of countries using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. We find that removing legal restrictions on abortion significantly reduces fertility and estimate that, on average, a birth reduces a woman’s labor supply by almost 2 years during her reproductive life. Our results imply that behavioral change, in the form of increased female labor supply, contributes significantly to economic growth during the demographic transition when fertility declines.      

Best fit,best practice,or stuck in the middle? The impact of unit ownership on unit HR performance in franchise systems

Franchising is an important form of entrepreneurial wealth creation in many retailing and service industries. Since Human Resource Management (HRM) is a critical factor in such industries, it is important to understand how franchisees—as semi-autonomous entrepreneurs—deal with HRM in their units and how this ultimately affects performance at the unit level. However, the very few studies linking franchisee HRM behaviors to performance have not included multi-unit franchising (MUF) as a type of unit ownership. Given the ever-increasing popularity of MUF and the unique characteristics of MUFs, this represents an important knowledge gap. We aim to fill this gap by building a theoretical framework on how the type of unit ownership affects unit HR performance within franchise systems. Building on agency, resource and entrepreneurship perspectives, we propose that units owned by single-unit franchisees (SUFs) and small MUFs (i.e., franchisees with a very small number of units) adopt a ‘best fit’ system regarding HRM, whereas company-owned units (COs) and units owned by larger MUFs (i.e., franchisees with a large number of units) typically adopt a ‘best practice’ system. Each system has its own advantages and disadvantages, which results in two contrasting propositions regarding their effects on unit performance. Moreover, we expect the units owned by medium-size MUFs to have the lowest performance since they are ‘stuck in the middle’ regarding their HRM system.     

Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms

Ensemble methods can be used to construct a forecast distribution from a collection of point forecasts. They are used extensively in meteorology, but have received little direct attention in economics. In a real-time analysis of the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, we compare ensemble methods to histogram-based forecast distributions of GDP growth and inflation in the Euro Area. We find that ensembles perform very similarly to histograms, while being simpler to handle in practice. Given the wide availability of surveys that collect point forecasts but not histograms, these results suggest that ensembles deserve further investigation in economics.     

The Interaction of Wage Bargaining Institutions and an Independent Central Bank – A Methodological Reflection on Current Theories

The paper analyses the increasingly popular literature on strategic interactions from a methodological viewpoint. These political economy approaches focusing on interactions between wage bargaining institutions and an independent central bank do not follow unified methodological rules and so cannot be categorised under a single particular paradigm. Moreover, the literature remains in a way circumscribed by the limits of our logical capacities and of mathematical tractability and therefore relates to the 'real world' of wage bargaining and economic policy institutions in a very limited way only. A consideration of the vast complexity of institutional conditions that impact economic performance in EMU reminds and cautions one that actual economic policy research is able to cover only very few of the numerous conditions responsible for the overall outcome.     

A note on the anti-herding instinct of interest rate forecasters

With regard to interest rate forecasts, earlier researchers have found mixed evidence of forecaster herding. Using the Livingston survey data, we reexamined the case for forecaster herding. We did not find evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, we found strong evidence of forecaster anti-herding.