“Speculative Influence Network” during financial bubbles: application to Chinese stock markets

We introduce the Speculative Influence Network (SIN) to decipher the causal relationships between sectors (and/or firms) during financial bubbles. The SIN is constructed in two steps. First, we develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of regime-switching between a normal market phase represented by a geometric Brownian motion and a bubble regime represented by the stochastic super-exponential Sornette and Andersen (Int J Mod Phys C 13(2):171–188, 2002) bubble model. The calibration of the HMM provides the probability at each time for a given security to be in the bubble regime. Conditional on two assets being qualified in the bubble regime, we then use the transfer entropy to quantify the influence of the returns of one asset i onto another asset j, from which we introduce the adjacency matrix of the SIN among securities. We apply our technology to the Chinese stock market during the period 2005–2008, during which a normal phase was followed by a spectacular bubble ending in a massive correction. We introduce the Net Speculative Influence Intensity variable as the difference between the transfer entropies from i to j and from j to i, which is used in a series of rank ordered regressions to predict the maximum loss (%MaxLoss) endured during the crash. The sectors that influenced other sectors the most are found to have the largest losses. There is some predictability obtained by using the transfer entropy involving industrial sectors to explain the %MaxLoss of financial institutions but not vice versa. We also show that the bubble state variable calibrated on the Chinese market data corresponds well to the regimes when the market exhibits a strong price acceleration followed by clear change of price regimes. Our results suggest that SIN may contribute significant skill to the development of general linkage-based systemic risks measures and early warning metrics.     

A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm for analyzing electronic word-of-mouth

This study evaluates tourism experiences shared through electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) across four Chinese attractions. The objective is to develop a framework for evaluating eWOM by constructing an indicator system and implementing an analytic hierarchy process with the use of a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm. This framework is achieved by mapping more than 6000 websites related to Chinese tourism attractions and filtering over 200,000 useful reviews to measure service performance. Results indicate that ecological–biological attractions failed to make tourists feel “very satisfied” in various aspects, such as overall evaluation, infrastructure, traffic, natural environment, and social environment. Overall, the study contributes by presenting a framework that can be adopted by tourism researchers and industry practitioners to understand tourist preferences and evaluate service performance to improve service quality.     

Transnationalizing industrial heritage valorizations in Germany and China – and addressing inherent dark sides

ABSTRACT

Industrial heritage valorizations are usually characterized by two pervasive trends: Firstly, there is an understandable, but extremely narrow, focus on national histories of industrialization, thus excluding what has always been a constitutive element of any industrialization path after the initial industrial revolution in England: transboundary flows of hardware, capital, knowledge, people or power. Secondly, there is an almost exclusive concentration on the individual achievements of entrepreneurs, engineers and architects in times of peace and industrial progress. Current industrial heritage valorizations only rarely adequately reflect the other side of industrialization phases or patterns, that is, their disquieting stories of war, occupation, other forms of imposed foreign influence, disasters, social unrest and the suffering of individuals or groups triggered by, or leading to, crises, failures, relocations and destruction. Taking these blind spots as its starting point, this paper explores more inclusive ways of representing industrial heritage. Based on the concept of geo-historically entangled processes of transnationalization and case studies from Germany and China, the authors argue that the industrial landscapes reflect both former and current transboundary industrialization processes representing two or more nations’ painful and dissonant, but common, heritage. This should be mirrored more appropriately and consistently in industrial heritage tourism approaches and interpretation strategies.     

The impact of CSR on relationship quality and relationship outcomes: A perspective of service employees

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has gained increasing attention over the past decade. While many studies examined an impact of CSR on consumers, only dearth of research is found that attempts to understand the impact of CSR on employees from the relationship marketing perspective. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of CSR in predicting relationship quality and relationship outcomes. The four dimensions of CSR used in the study include economic, legal, ethical, and philanthropic aspects. Data were collected via survey from employees of franchised foodservice enterprises located in South Korea. The findings of the study show that not all dimensions of CSR have the same effect on relationship quality. While economic and philanthropic dimensions have a significant influence on organizational trust, only ethical dimension has a positive effect on job satisfaction. As expected, relationship quality has a significant impact on relationship outcomes.     

Consumers’ responses to ambivalent online hotel reviews: The role of perceived source credibility and pre-decisional disposition

Electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) is prevalent in today's lodging market and has potential to influence consumers’ decision making. This study investigated how the presence of online reviewers’ personal identifying information (PII) may affect consumers’ processing of ambivalent online hotel reviews and hotel booking intentions. The results of an experiment with a sample of 274 undergraduate students indicate that the presence of PII positively affects the perceived credibility of the online reviews. When coupled with ambivalent online reviews, the presence of PII significantly lowers consumers’ hotel booking intentions.     

Identifying changes and trends in Hong Kong outbound tourism

Despite the numerous research endeavors aimed at investigating tourists’ preferences and motivations, it remains very difficult for practitioners to utilize the results of traditional association rule mining methods in tourism management. This research presents a new approach that extends the capability of the association rules technique to contrast targeted association rules with the aim of capturing the changes and trends in outbound tourism. Using datasets collected from five large-scale domestic tourism surveys of Hong Kong residents on outbound pleasure travel, both positive and negative contrasts are identified, thus enabling practitioners and policymakers to make appropriate decisions and develop more appropriate tourism products.     

Other consumers in service encounters: A script theoretical perspective

Hospitality service consumptions often involve sharing the service environment with other consumers. Drawing upon the Script Theory, this research provides a theoretical perspective of consumer responses to behaviors of other consumers in service encounters. The results from an experimental study provide strong support for the dual-mode consumer responses (felt emotions and displayed emotions) and for the moderating effect of psychological closeness on consumer responses. Managerial implications for training, service management and service design in hospitality businesses are also discussed.     

倒边盖挖逆作法基坑支护结构可靠性分析

为了解决采用标准Monte Carlo法计算复杂基坑工程上常见小概率失效,导致计算效率低的问题,以南京市湖南路地下商业街工程为工程背景,首先,将随机响应面法与基坑工程三维模型相结合,求解极限功能函数的响应面方程,并用标准Monte Carlo法计算失效概率和可靠指标,探讨采用倒边盖挖逆作法作为基坑支护结构施工方法的可行性;其次,基于该响应面方程,以土体的弹性模量为随机变量参数,采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗子集模拟法(MCMC子集模拟法)计算基坑支护结构的失效概率,并与标准Monte Carlo法结果进行对比分析。结果表明：当支护结构最大侧移控制指标为25 mm时,计算得到的可靠指标均大于4.6,即采用倒边盖挖逆作法施工过程中基坑是安全的;10万次和50万次标准Monte Carlo法计算得到的失效概率均为零,说明对于标准Monte Carlo法,在计算小概率失效问题时10万与50万的样本量是不足的;而MCMC子集模拟法用2.98万个样本计算出的结果与标准Monte Carlo法采用100万个样本计算的结果相对误差仅为1.7%,表明MCMC子集模拟法对于小概率失效问题求解的优势。所提算法在一定...     

基于主成分分析的区域可持续发展能力评价——以江苏省为例

科学评价江苏省区域可持续发展能力是制定其发展战略的基础。通过建立江苏省区域可持续发展指标体系,主成分分析法对江苏13个地级市的34个统计指标进行了分析,并在综合评价和空间差异分析的基础上提出了江苏区域可持续发展的对策建议。     

可拆换式减压井技术在阳新长江干堤整险工程中的应用

2016年汛期,阳新长江干堤堤内发生管涌险情,汛后为整治险情提升堤基抗渗性能,新建了一批减压井消减堤基承压水头.结合在阳新长江干堤整险工程中实施的新型可拆换式减压井工程,讨论其关键技术和施工工艺,持续跟踪监测2017年、2020年汛期减压井排水量.监测结果表明,汛期减压井工程排水减压效果明显,该减压井历经4个洪水年未见...