Modelling driver propensity for traffic accidents: a comparison of multiple regression analysis and fuzzy approach

Abstract

This research proposes an assessment and decision support model to use when a driver should be examined about their propensity for traffic accidents, based on an estimation of the driver’s psychological traits. The proposed model was tested on a sample of 305 drivers. Each participant completed four psychological tests: the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11), the Aggressive Driving Behaviour Questionnaire (ADBQ), the Manchester Driver Attitude Questionnaire (DAQ) and the Questionnaire for Self-assessment of Driving Ability. In addition, participants completed an extensive demographic and driving survey. Various fuzzy inference systems were tested and each was defined using the well-known Wang-Mendel method for rule-base definition based on empirical data. For this purpose, a programming code was designed and utilized. Based on the obtained results, it was determined which combination of the considered psychological tests provides the best prediction of a driver’s propensity for traffic accidents. The best of the considered fuzzy inference systems might be used as a decision support tool in various situations, such as in recruitment procedures for professional drivers. The validity of the proposed fuzzy approach was confirmed as its implementation provided better results than from statistics, in this case multiple regression analysis.     

New development: Between politics and strategic planning—the management of government priorities in Lithuania

ABSTRACT

How do political agendas impact on strategic planning practices? This article shows that recent changes to the framework for managing government priorities have made Lithuania’s strategic planning system more politically responsive by mobilizing political attention, leadership and state funding to major government commitments. However, these changes have not yet translated into any longer term outcomes because policy implementation practices did not change very much.     

A study on the competitive strategy of the universal postal service provider

We analysed how the universal postal service providers could employ their specificities to achieve an advantage over the growing competition. The basic input for the model is expert opinions. We interviewed 18 experts in five stages. As a multiple criteria decision support method, we used an analytic hierarchy process. Further, we proposed a geometric method for determining the business area where a company should focus its biggest attention to achieve the best result. By implementing the proposed model, a company should obtain two types of business directions, the first related to the proposed activities and the second to the business areas. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology, we tested and verified it in the case of the Serbian universal postal service provider which is a state-owned company called the Post of Serbia.     

The Role and Current Status of IFRS in the Completion of National Accounting Rules – Evidence from Croatia

Abstract

We examine the changes in Croatian accounting regulation, in the context of 2013/34/EU Directive implementation and analyse indirect effects of IFRS on national reporting regulation for non-listed companies. The main goal is to determine the level of conformity between Croatian accounting rules and IFRS as adopted by EU. Analysis shows that IFRS are used in the great extent as a source for provisions in Croatian Financial Reporting Standards (CFRS). There are only a few major differences between Croatian financial reporting standards and IFRS. However, there are a number of IFRS standards that are considered not to be relevant in the context of CFRS, as CFRS are intended to be used only by SMEs. Nevertheless, the management is permitted to use provisions and guidance from IFRS, if CFRS provisions are not applicable to a certain transaction or event.     

Uhljeb – a post-socialist homo croaticus: a personification of the economy of favours in Croatia?

Party patronage combined with a collectivist culture appears to present a very resistant socialist legacy in Croatia. In-group favouritism and an overly bureaucratised system provide a fertile soil for uhljebs. An uhljeb is a public sector employee whose main ‘competence’ is membership of a political party or a nepotistic relationship. They now already count in the thousands, and often contribute to the further multiplication of uhljebs, and to an increase in clientelist arrangements. The practice of employing uhljebs both undermines and underpins the existing system. That ambivalence is one of the characteristics of the Russian sistema, and that is one of the important links to compare blat users and uhljebs, in addition to the practice of ‘pulling strings’. As key protagonists, uhljebs and blat users illustrate their own and society’s modus operandi: an intense ‘economy of favours’. Recent studies increasingly show that cultural variables influence economic outcomes and this article presents an extension of the ‘economy of favours’ into Croatia’s paradigm. Based on primary sources and international benchmarks, it provides a comparison of the cultural contexts of Eastern and Western European countries, and portrays a rising informal practice that, despite its omnipresence, has been under-researched in the academic literature.     

The influence of the political environment and destination governance on sustainable tourism development: a study of Bled,Slovenia

In the context of sustainable tourism development, there are many studies about the exchange process between residents and tourism, yet this issue is practically unexplored with respect to the political environment of tourism. Therefore, this paper introduces and posits that the political environment is a necessary enabler for implementing sustainable tourism. The authors extend the established three-pillar sustainability concept by adding in the political dimension. Then they surveyed how residents' positive and negative perceptions of tourism impacts determine their satisfaction with life in the tourism destination and thus their support for tourism in their community. The model was empirically tested within the context of the long-established Alpine destination of Bled in Slovenia. The findings confirm the importance of the political environment and question the sustainability of Bled's tourism development. It is suggested that the community has relatively weak destination governance due to the underdeveloped political environment. The survey expands and deepens the tourism sustainability debate by adding in the political environment and how it relates to the emerging growth of research on destination governance. The proposed model can be adapted and applied to any destination in order to improve its governance, including the implementation of sustainable tourism development.     

Banking Reform in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Banking Reform in South East European Transitional Economies: An Overview

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -