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81.
Miroslav Šimandl Tomáš Soukup 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》2002,11(2):109-117
A new technique for nonlinear state and parameter estimation of discrete time stochastic volatility models is developed. Algorithms of Gibbs sampler and simulation filters are used to construct a simulation tool that reflects both inherent model variability and parameter uncertainty. The proposed chain converges to equilibrium enabling the estimation of unobserved volatilities and unknown model parameter distributions. The estimation algorithm is illustrated using numerical examples. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
82.
The article presents a novel methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication using content analysis, illustrating the methodology with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB). The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear in about 85–95% of instances, which is comparable with, or better than, similar results available for other central banks. We also find that the additional information on risk to inflation and especially projection risk assessment contained in the ECB's Monthly Bulletins helps to improve communication clarity compared to ECB's press releases. In contrast, the bulletin's communication on monetary developments has a negative, albeit small, impact on clarity. 相似文献
83.
Estimating the effect of Federal Reserve's announcements of Large‐Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programs on corporate credit risk is complicated by the simultaneity of policy decisions and movements in prices of risky financial assets, as well as by the fact that both interest rates of assets targeted by the programs and indicators of credit risk reacted to other common shocks during the recent financial crisis. This paper employs a heteroskedasticity‐based approach to estimate the structural coefficient measuring the sensitivity of market‐based indicators of corporate credit risk to declines in the benchmark market interest rates prompted by the LSAP announcements. The results indicate that the LSAP announcements led to a significant reduction in the cost of insuring against default risk—as measured by the CDX indexes—for both investment‐ and speculative‐grade corporate credits. While the unconventional policy measures employed by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy have substantially lowered the overall level of credit risk in the economy, the LSAP announcements appear to have had no measurable effect on credit risk in the financial intermediary sector. 相似文献
84.
We empirically analyze the pricing of political uncertainty, guided by a theoretical model of government policy choice. To isolate political uncertainty, we exploit its variation around national elections and global summits. We find that political uncertainty is priced in the equity option market as predicted by theory. Options whose lives span political events tend to be more expensive. Such options provide valuable protection against the price, variance, and tail risks associated with political events. This protection is more valuable in a weaker economy and amid higher political uncertainty. The effects of political uncertainty spill over across countries. 相似文献
85.
Šafhalter Andrej Glodež Srečko Šorgo Andrej Ploj Virtič Mateja 《International Journal of Technology and Design Education》2022,32(1):167-184
International Journal of Technology and Design Education - Spatial visualization ability is an important factor in a child’s cognitive development. Its development is affected by numerous... 相似文献
86.
We introduce a general framework for Markov decision problems under model uncertainty in a discrete-time infinite horizon setting. By providing a dynamic programming principle, we obtain a local-to-global paradigm, namely solving a local, that is, a one time-step robust optimization problem leads to an optimizer of the global (i.e., infinite time-steps) robust stochastic optimal control problem, as well as to a corresponding worst-case measure. Moreover, we apply this framework to portfolio optimization involving data of the . We present two different types of ambiguity sets; one is fully data-driven given by a Wasserstein-ball around the empirical measure, the second one is described by a parametric set of multivariate normal distributions, where the corresponding uncertainty sets of the parameters are estimated from the data. It turns out that in scenarios where the market is volatile or bearish, the optimal portfolio strategies from the corresponding robust optimization problem outperforms the ones without model uncertainty, showcasing the importance of taking model uncertainty into account. 相似文献
87.
Erdinc Akyildirim Duc Khuong Nguyen Ahmet Sensoy Mario Šikić 《European Financial Management》2023,29(1):22-75
Borsa Istanbul introduced data analytics to present additional information about its market conditions. We examine whether this product can be utilized via various machine learning methods to predict intraday excess returns. Accordingly, these analytics provide significant prediction ratios above 50% with ideal profit ratios that can reach up to 33%. Among all the methods considered, XGBoost (logistic regression) performs better in predicting excess returns in the long-term analysis (short-term analysis). Results provide evidence for the benefits of both the analytics and the machine learning methods and raise further discussion on the semistrong market efficiency. 相似文献
88.
In interpretive research accounts, reflexivity has been understood primarily in terms of the researcher's reflexivity, while the respondent's reflexivity has been considered only marginally. We regard this gap as critical and therefore introduce a research design for the gradual stimulation of respondents' reflexivity (GSRR), which we propose as a methodological tool for strengthening research validity. First, to frame our argumentation in the contemporary socio-technological context, we emphasize the need to focus on the respondent's reflexivity in the onto-epistemological conditions of the hybrid space and posthuman consumer culture, which unprecedentedly eliminate actors' abilities to monitor their actions reflexively. Second, we present and methodologically examine the GSRR as a 3-phase sequential mixed-method research design for stimulating respondents' reflexivity. GSRR's logic is as follows: the questionnaire captures what respondents think they are doing; the digital self-tracking diary captures what they are doing and what they often do not acknowledge (unreflexivity); the interviews use the previous phases' data to elicit respondents' reflexivity. Third, we present examples from our research practice to demonstrate the strengthening of data validity elicited from respondents by stimulating their reflexivity. We conclude by outlining the GSRR's possible future applications and directions. 相似文献
89.
This paper focuses on the Czech economic transition and aims to identify the determinants of unusually high and long-lasting public support for market reforms. The study is based on a unique combination of statistical analysis of survey data and oral history (interviews with reformers, managers etc.), which has enabled us to depict the views of the general public as well as of many people involved in decision-making processes on both macro and micro levels. These findings allow us to propose recommendations on how to gain and maintain public support for economic reforms. Above all, reformers must utilize the period of euphoria and communicate the individual steps of reform with the public. 相似文献