基于VAR模型的山东省经济增长波动分析

本文通过建立向量自回归模型,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解的方法对山东省经济增长的波动情况进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:各变量对山东经济增长的影响均不太明显。这说明山东经济一直保持稳定快速发展的势头。     

中国农户经济:生命力及其佐证

中国农户不仅是基本的消费主体,更是基本的生产主体;不仅是独立的生产经营管理主体,还是独立的利益分配主体;不仅是经济主体,而且是农村几乎全部私人生活和一部分公共生活的主体。由此决定着中国农户经济内在的强大的生命力。历史和现实、国内和国外于此有多方面的佐证。     

Luft zum Atmen

Mehr Sicherheit im Umgang mit Trachealkanülen - Pflegende, die Patienten mit einer Trachealkanüle betreuen, müssen den Kanülenwechsel sicher beherrschen. Denn bei Komplikationen kann das Warten auf den Arzt katastrophale Folgen haben. Daher muss der Umgang mit den Kanülen zur Routine werden.     

The Chinese civil action sues present situation and solution

This paper is analysising the present of the Chinese civil action sue mainly and finding the specific method. Establishes the litigant principle the lawsuit pattern; Strengthens the related legislation and introducing legal precedent properly; Standard legal procedure. The fact evidents that the better we solve these problems the closer we go to the harmonious society for the problem which the Chinese civil action sues faced.     

建筑墙体裂缝防治技术分析

在房屋建筑工程领域,经常会遇到一些结构构件出现裂缝的工程问题.因此,对裂缝进行分析,究其产生的原因,如何采取防范措施、如何进行修复,是很有必要的.文章简要分析了房屋建筑工程砖砌体常见裂缝的主要原因,并提出了一些处理以及预防的措施及方法.     

Why is Inflation in China a Monetary Phenomenon？

This paper proposes that inflation in China during the post‐reform era (1978 onwards) is always a monetary phenomenon. We construct a multivariate dynamic model based on Friedman's quantity theory of money and use the standard Granger causality test to show that money growth contains significant predictive power for inflation during the underlying period. The finding is robust to alternative measures of monetary aggregates and both closed and open economy frameworks. The baseline finding of the paper indicates that quantitative tools remain the most important policy instruments for China to manage its inflation effectively.     

Not all trade restrictions are created equally

There has been great focus in the recent trade theory literature on the introduction of firm heterogeneity into trade models. This introduction has highlighted the importance of the entry/exit decision of firms in response to changes in trade barriers. However, it is typical in many of these models to use iceberg transport costs as a general form of trade barriers that can be interchangeable with ad valorem tariffs. I show that this is not always an appropriate conclusion. Specifically, I illustrate that profit for an exporter is more elastic in response to tariffs than iceberg transport costs, which affects the entry/exit decision of firms. This has implications for welfare analysis and empirical specifications.     

Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?

Most extant work on prediction of banking crises has utilised global samples, which are in turn dominated by observations from middle-income countries, and rely on a single estimator. However, economic and financial structures as well as the pattern of shocks may differ substantially across regions, while a range of specifications is desirable to check robustness. Accordingly, in this paper we test the implicit pooling assumption in earlier multivariate work on Early Warning Systems using both logit and binary recursive tree specifications separately for crises in Asia and Latin America, as well as the pooled sample. Results suggest markedly different crisis determinants across regions, implying global samples are inappropriate.