THE PREDICTABILITY OF AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN OECD COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

We examine aggregate consumption growth predictability. We derive a dynamic consumption equation which encompasses relevant predictability factors: habit formation, intertemporal substitution, current income consumption and non‐separabilities between private consumption and both hours worked and government consumption. We estimate this equation for a panel of 15 OECD countries over the period 1972–2007, taking into account parameter heterogeneity, endogeneity and error cross‐sectional dependence using a GMM version of the common correlated effects mean group estimator. Small‐sample properties are demonstrated using Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results support income growth as the only variable with significant predictive power for aggregate consumption growth. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earnings Instability and Tenure

We study the effect of tenure on earnings instability in Italy using the reforms of temporary employment contracts, which affected the average tenure of workers differentially across cohorts. We develop a model of earnings dynamics, and we exploit the variation of tenure and instability over time and across birth cohorts to estimate policy‐relevant parameters. Our results indicate that each year of tenure on the job reduces earnings instability by 11 percent; the drop is faster in the first three years of the match. Workers on a temporary contract have an earnings instability up to 100 percent higher than workers on a permanent contract.     

Convergence in OECD countries: technical change,efficiency and productivity

The aim of this study is to analyse labour productivity convergence in the OECD countries over the period 1975-90. A nonparametric frontier approach is used to calculate the Malmquist productivity index. By breaking it down, the contribution in the growth of labour productivity of technical progress, of changes in efficiency, and of the accumulation of inputs per worker are quantified. Unlike other studies, the results obtained show that technical change has worked against labour productivity convergence, since it has always been greater in the countries with higher labour productivity.     

The problem of employees' network centrality and supervisors' error in performance appraisal: A multilevel theory

This article reveals an unexplored paradox for HR managers: the centrality of an employee in the social network benefits performance but hampers performance appraisal because it affects supervisors' rating errors. Central employees can be erroneously rated high on performance even when they are not high performers because supervisors tend to overappraise their performance. A distinction is made between rating precision, which depends on supervisors' uncertainty regarding employees' performance, and rating accuracy, which depends on supervisors' bias in favor of employees. Employee centrality is posited to be beneficial to precision but deleterious to accuracy because it regulates the diffusion of positive information, status, and power, all of which distort supervisors' capacity and motivation to accurately appraise performance. It is then argued that rating errors caused by network centrality affect aggregate perceptions of justice in organizations. When employees are highly connected to each other in a dense network, organizations have a strong and positive justice climate. Yet when some employees are more central than others in a centralized network, organizations have a negative and weak justice climate. The article contributes to the literature because it identifies an unexplored dark side of network centrality and offers recommendations for HR managers to cope with its deleterious consequences and for scholars to study them.     

Relative export prices and firm size in imperfect markets

This paper contributes to the rising field in international trade and industrial organization. A vast sample of Italian micro data is used to study the behavior of relative export prices in imperfect markets. It is shown that relative export prices, the relation of prices a firm charges on export and domestic markets, are, in general, downward biased. Moreover, relative export prices depend negatively on firm size and market concentration, but positively on the average export share of the industry. This indicates that markets are segmented and firms are able to discriminate prices.     

Reducing the mean supply delay of spare parts using lateral transshipments policies

Lateral transshipment has been studied lately as a promising policy for increasing the performances of multi-echelon spare parts inventory system. By lateral transshipment spare parts can be moved from one location with excess inventory to another location, at the same echelon, in shortage, with the aim of reducing supply delays of spare parts. This paper will examine the relative effectiveness of two lateral shipments approaches in reducing the mean supply delay (MSD) of a non-repairable item, with respect to a classical policy of no lateral shipments. A simulation model of a two echelon supply network has been implemented and an experiment has been performed by varying different parameters of the supply network, such as the number of warehouses (locations at the lower echelon), the supply lead time from the central depot, the spare parts demand uncertainty, and the size variability of the warehouses. Results show appreciable reductions of MSD when lateral shipments are allowed with respect to the classical policy, in almost every network configuration.     

The time-varying integration of euro area government bond markets

We derive a model in which a standard international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) for government bonds is nested within an ICAPM with impediments to invest in the local government bond markets. Excess returns or risk premiums are then driven by a country-specific or idiosyncratic stochastic factor on top of the common factor which has a time-varying idiosyncratic impact on the premiums. With this model we investigate the financial integration of government bond markets over time through two channels. First, we allow for gradual convergence from the full ICAPM with impediments to the standard model through the vanishing of the idiosyncratic factors. Second, we allow for gradual equalization of the country-specific impacts of the common factor. State space methods are used to estimate the model with weekly government bond risk premiums for Belgium, France, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands over the period 1995–2009. Our results suggest, first, that the idiosyncratic factors were almost eliminated by 2006 in all countries but Italy but then reappeared due to the financial crisis that started in 2007. Second, the country-specific exposures to the common international risk factor have converged across countries, with no setback during the crisis.     

Strategic accessibility competition

We analyze the effect of competition in market-accessibility enhancement among quality-differentiated firms. Firms are located in regions with different ex-ante transport costs to reach the final market. We characterize the equilibrium of the two-stage game in which firms first invest to improve market accessibility and then compete in prices. Efforts in accessibility improvement crucially depend on the interplay between the willingness to pay for the quality premium of the median consumer and the ex-ante difference in accessibility between regions. From the social standpoint, also the accessibility investment depends on such a comparison. Finally, we endogenize quality choice and check the robustness of the result to some natural modifications of our assumptions.     

Multifactor productivity and its determinants: an empirical analysis for Mexican manufacturing

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we estimate production functions for the Mexican manufacturing sector and for 14 comprehensive groups, allowing us to construct various measures of multifactor productivity. Second, we analyse some of the determinants of productivity growth. We find that, on the one hand, there is a positive relationship between market concentration and technology adoption; on the other hand, both technology adoption and human capital promote productivity, whilst market concentration exerts a negative influence on it. Our results suggest that, once controlling for the effect on technology adoption, more concentration impacts negatively productivity growth.     

Studying processes in and around networks

The industrial marketing literature on business networks has drawn attention to the importance and yet the complexities of managing in a context of fluid and dynamic inter-organizational relationships. This context also poses significant challenges to researchers who wish to better understand the evolution of networks and the processes occurring in and around them in order to generate valuable theoretical insight and actionable knowledge for practitioners. After reviewing the nature of process research, this paper considers the key methodological choices and tradeoffs faced by process researchers interested in studying network dynamics. These choices and tradeoffs are illustrated by drawing on a series of exemplary process studies of networks derived from the entrepreneurship, strategic management, organization theory and industrial marketing literatures. The paper concludes by proposing that future studies might benefit from focusing on key network transformations and from mobilizing programmatic investments.