PRIOR UNCERTAINTY,ANALYST BIAS,AND SUBSEQUENT ABNORMAL RETURNS

In this paper we examine the relation between analysts' overoptimism and uncertainty as proxied by the standard deviation of earnings forecasts. We find a positive relation between overoptimism and uncertainty, but very little or no optimism when uncertainty is low. If the uncertainty surrounding a firm is high, analysts have fewer reputational concerns when they act on their inclinations to issue optimistic forecasts. Portfolio strategies based on these findings generate abnormal returns. The results suggest that greater prior uncertainty leads to higher analyst optimism, which in turn causes market overvaluation and profitable portfolio strategies.     

What's in a Name? An Experimental Examination of Investment Behavior

A fundamental unresolved issue is whether information asymmetries underlie investors predisposition to invest close to home (i.e., domestically or locally). We conduct experiments in the United States and Canada to investigate agents portfolio allocation decisions, controlling for the availability of information. Providing participants with information about a firms home base, without disclosing its specific identity, is not sufficient to change investment behavior. Rather, participants need to know a firms name and home base. Additional evidence indicates that participants have a greater perceived familiarity with local and domestic securities and, in turn, invest more in such securities.The authors thank Ann Gillette, Josef Zechner (the editor), and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and acknowledge the financial support of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Georgia Tech, and Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. The views expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta or the Federal Reserve System.     

Achieving financial success for owned physician practices

Techniques that have helped turn around the financial performance of individual physician practices can also be used by hospitals and physicians to stem losses from owned practices: Strengthening collections processes. Setting performance targets and incentives. Instituting monthly meetings that keep providers and staff focused on financial success.     

The cost-effectiveness of dulaglutide versus insulin glargine for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Japan

Aims: Dulaglutide is a new once weekly glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist administered via a disposable auto-injection pen for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dulaglutide vs insulin glargine for the management of T2DM from a Japanese healthcare perspective, in accordance with recently approved Japanese Cost-Effectiveness Guidelines.

Methods: The IQVIA CORE Diabetes Model (version 9) was used to estimate the long-term costs and effects of treatment with dulaglutide and insulin glargine. Direct comparative data from the Araki 2015 trial (NCT01584232) was used to inform the analysis. Costs associated with treatment and complications were derived from Japanese sources wherever possible and inflated to 2015 Japanese Yen (JPY). Utilities were based upon a European systematic review of diabetes utilities and adjusted for use in a Japanese population. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (OWSA and PSA) were conducted on all inputs and key modeling assumptions.

Results: Dulaglutide 0.75?mg was associated with higher quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), life years (LYs), and total costs, compared to insulin glargine, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 416,280 JPY/QALY gained. Treatment with dulaglutide increased the time alive and free from diabetes-related complications by 4 months. OWSA and PSA indicated that results were robust to plausible variations in input parameters and modeling assumptions.

Limitations: Key limitations of this study are similar to other cost-utility analyses of diabetes, including the extrapolation of short-term clinical trial data into lifelong durations. In addition, due to the lack of robust published Japanese data, some values were derived from non-Japanese sources.

Conclusions: This analysis suggests that dulaglutide 0.75?mg may be a cost-effective treatment alternative to insulin glargine for patients with T2DM in Japan.     

An Assessment of Consumer Protection and Consumer Empowerment in Costa Rica

The present exploratory study aims to describe and assess Costa Rica’s regime for protecting and empowering consumers. As the general framework, this study used research conducted in the USA, in Europe—specifically studies conducted by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) partners—and studies sponsored by the European Union (EU) in Central America. This paper, however, is not intended to provide an exhaustive analysis or to answer all questions and issues related to consumer protection in Costa Rica; rather, it is to identify the main components of the consumer protection framework, its strategies, consumer redress mechanisms, remedies, and consumer protection challenges faced by the country. The last section outlines a conclusion and presents recommendations for improvement.     

Are benevolent dictators altruistic in groups? A within-subject design

We use a within-subject experimental design to investigate whether systematic relationships exist across distinct features of individual preferences: altruism in a two-person context, risk aversion in monetary outcomes, and social preferences in a group context. We find that altruism is related to demographic variables, including years of education, gender, and age. Perhaps most importantly, self allocation in a two-person dictator game is related to social preferences in a group context. Participants who are more generous in a dictator game are more likely to vote against their self-interest in a group tax redistribution game which we interpret to be an expression of social preferences.     

Linkages between minority business characteristics and minority banks’ locations

This study presents evidence regarding differences in the financial characteristics of minority business enterprises (MBEs), contingent upon whether or not they are currently located in markets which contain minority banks. We employed Dun and Bradstreet financial data for the period 1975–83. We concluded that, on average, MBES not located in markets with minority banks were larger than the bank-related MBES, laid greater emphasis on fixed assets, and financed their businesses with more equity. The bank-related MBES apparently had greater access to debt financing and operated with greater liquidity.     

The effect of circuit breakers on expected volatility: Tests using implied volatilities

Following the 1987 stock market crash, trading controls or circuit breakers were implemented in financial markets to moderate extreme volatility. However, the effectiveness of circuit breakers on the operation of these markets is disputed. While some argue that circuit breakers curb the effects of overreaction in markets and restore confidence, others argue that these trading interruptions merely delay price movements to later periods or to other markets. This paper examines the effect of changes in circuit breaker rules on the market's expectation of future volatility. The results have policy implications and suggest that the circuit breaker rule changes have no effect on expected volatility.