The fourth première of the Human Development Index

The United Nations Development Program has published its Human Development Index values for most countries of the world for the past five years. It claims the index provides information that goes beyond the widely-used GDP data and is relevant for policy-making. Critical examination shows that the index does not yet live up to this claim.     

Einsparpotenziale bei Verwaltungs- und Verfahrenskosten durch die Fusion von gewerblichen Berufsgenossenschaften — eine empirische Analyse für Deutschland

We analyze the cost savings potential with regard to administration and management costs by merging Commercial Employment Accident Insurance Funds (Berufsgenossenschaften) in Germany. We use data from the German Federation of institutions for statutory accident insurance and prevention (HVBG) for 1999 to 2004. Large Berufsgenossenschaften (BGs) have lower administration and management costs per insured person. However, costs per insured person are negatively correlated with insured risk of the BGs which in turn is an important source of administration and management costs.Results of a multivariate regression analysis help to identify cost drivers and the existence of economies of scale. Notifiable accidents, occupational diseases and risk explain administration and management costs. All estimation results are highly significant and allow to conclude that remarkable economies of scale are likely to be present in the organization of the BGs. Our results are robust to alternative specifications. Also, risk turns out to be an important cost driver with regard to management costs.A hypothetical policy reform is considered that reduces the number of BGs from formerly 35 to 18. We come up with an estimate of expected cost savings (without cutting benefits) of 83 million euros, about 10 % of the current management costs of the BGs under consideration.     

The macroeconomic effects of the ECB’s evolving QE programme: a model-based analysis

This paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s asset purchase programme in its initial version and subsequent modifications under the lens of a dynamic macroeconomic model, which includes assets of different types and maturity, and explicitly introduces asset purchases of long-term bonds (held by euro area and non-euro area residents) by the central bank. With imperfect substitutability between asset classes, portfolio rebalancing in the context of quantitative easing (QE) affects bond yields, stock prices, the exchange rate and the private sector’s saving decision. QE as announced in January 2015 generates 0.4% effective euro depreciation and raises real GDP in the euro area by 0.2% and prices by 0.3% by 2017 in the model. The subsequent extensions of the QE programme (extension in time and increase in volume) more than double the medium-term output and inflation effects according to the simulations.     

Reforms,Exchange Rates and Monetary Commitment: A Panel Analysis for OECD Countries

The paper investigates the link between monetary policy and structural reforms in open economies. We test three hypotheses: (a) the Calmfors hypothesis that the degree of reforms is higher in the case of autonomous policy and lower in the case of commitment, (b) the TINA hypothesis which implies a positive impact of a monetary policy rule on the extent of reforms, and (c) a third factors hypothesis. In our empirical analysis on panel data of 23 OECD countries from 1980–2000 we find little evidence for the Calmfors hypothesis, but evidence in favor of the TINA argument for labor market and regulatory reform.

A note on testing instrument validity for the identification of LATE

In this paper, we show that the testable implications derived in Huber and Mellace (Rev Econ Stat 97:398, 2015) are the best possible to detect invalid instruments in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects and endogeneity. We also provide formal proof of the fact that those testable implications are only necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for instrument validity.     

Estimating stochastic volatility: the rough side to equity returns

Decisions in Economics and Finance - This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a Brownian semi-stationary (BSS) process in modelling the volatility of 21 equity indices. We implement a...     

Interacting nominal and real labour market rigidities

The note analyses interactions between nominal wage stickiness and costly employment adjustment under rule-based and optimal monetary policy. Policy regimes affect and optimal policy lowers the welfare cost of rigidities. No quantitatively important second-best interaction between both rigidities is found.     

Are momentum traders different? Implications for the momentum puzzle

This article examines the puzzlingly high unexploited momentum returns from a new perspective. We analyse characteristics of momentum traders in a sample of 692 fund managers. We find that momentum traders are ‘defined’ by their short-term horizon, by a behavioural view on the market and by a somewhat lower degree of risk aversion, whereas they are like other fund managers with respect to sophistication. This is consistent with the interpretation that momentum returns may compensate for the risk of momentum trading on short-term horizons and that the short-term oriented momentum traders are not in a position to perform long-term arbitrage.     

When do Heuristics Matter in Global Capital Markets? The Case of the BRIC Acronym

ABSTRACT

Several recent publications have argued that the use of heuristics by financial investors can distort global capital flows, but scholars have paid little attention to the scope conditions that determine when heuristics become influential (and when they don’t). Building on work in economic sociology and behavioural finance we suggest that the degree to which investment heuristics can bias aggregate capital flows depends on the levels of uncertainty and self-referentiality that structure the environments under which investment decisions are being made. Applying these insights to the two principal global markets for corporate investment, we argue that the institutional structure of markets for short-term portfolio equity investments (PEI) is far more conducive to trigger the mimetic adoption of a specific heuristic than in markets for long-term foreign direct investments (FDI). To test this hypothesis, we leverage the high level of arbitrariness of the selection of Brazil, Russia, India and China into the BRIC acronym and empirically examine the impact of its remarkable rise to prominence among communities of financial investors in the mid-2000s on global capital flows to emerging economies. In line with the theoretical argument, we find robust evidence of a strong BRIC-bias in markets for PEI but not FDI.