Die Bewertung von Handelsrisiken eines Übertragungsnetzbetreibers anhand einer Monte-Carlo-Simulation

EnBW Transportnetze AG (TNG) is the transmission system operator (TSO) of Energie Baden-Württemberg AG. Due to the Renewable Energy Sources Act, the TSOs are obliged to take-up the (fluctuating) complete amount of electricity made of renewable resources. The TSOs have to transform this feeding into a constant output. Therefore, TNG has started trading on the European Power Exchange. The amount of electricity needed to be bought and sold respectively in order to create a constant output involves risks because of price volatility. As a result of the merit-order-effect, these risks increase. Due to this effect, procurement costs generally exceed sales revenues despite of well-balanced quantitative electricity tradings. For evaluating the procurement and merchandise risk at the intraday market, a Monte-Carlo-Simulation is executed on the basis of historical turnover data.     

Induced innovation and spillover effects of US and Canadian research expenditures in Canadian agriculture

This study examines the induced innovation hypothesis (IIH) from 1958 to 2015 for two Canadian agriculture regions: Central Canada (the provinces of Ontario and Quebec) and Western Canada (the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba). There is broadly consistent support for the IIH for Canadian agriculture, especially for Western Canadian agriculture. In addition, there is support for the notion that US, as well as Canadian, research expenditures are important to explain changes in the input ratio in Canadian agriculture in the long run. This indicates the existence of spillover effects from US agricultural research expenditures to Canadian agriculture.     

Should Commodity Exporters Peg to the Export Price?

To account for the specific situation of commodity exporters, pegging to export prices (PEP) has been proposed elsewhere as an alternative to other conventional monetary regimes such as an exchange rate peg or inflation targeting. PEP is supposed to deliver automatic accommodation to terms‐of‐trade shocks, while retaining the credibility gain from a nominal anchor. This paper analyzes the PEP proposal in a dynamic general‐equilibrium model and compares it with a standard Taylor rule, consumer price index (CPI)‐level targeting and a nominal exchange rate peg. Judged by the degree of output stabilization, PEP performs very similar to CPI targeting for export demand as well as domestic demand shocks and underperforms in the case of shocks to the export price. The results suggest that PEP is not superior to conventional CPI targeting from a macroeconomic stabilization perspective.     

Systemic scenarios of nanotechnology: Sustainable governance of emerging technologies

The economic and social promises of emerging technologies, especially nanotechnology, are assumed to be outstanding due to radical innovative features of materials, products and services. However, preliminary studies indicate that these very same features, e.g. high chemical reactivity, could entail adverse impacts on human health and the environment. Calls for appropriate regulation and societal formation of nanotechnology developments have been made, resulting in the concept of sustainable nanotechnology governance. The required anticipatory knowledge supporting these efforts seems so far to lack a sound methodological basis as well as an integrated perspective on nanotechnological applications. We present a scenario study on possible future developments of nanotechnology in Switzerland (reference year 2020). The study employed a formalized and functional scenario methodology, featuring system analysis, consistency analysis and transdisciplinary collaboration. The results indicate five different future constellations of contextual aspects, such as public awareness, profit potential and legal regulations, which are assumed to consistently correspond to five distinct market situations for nanotechnological applications. Going beyond the specific nanotechnology scenarios, the article argues for a rigorous scenario methodology as a valuable tool for the sustainable governance of emerging technologies.     

Wie soll die EZB aus ihrer unkonventionellen Geldpolitik aussteigen?

As economic conditions improve in the euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) has to decide how to sequence the normalisation of monetary policy. Phasing out asset purchases first would mainly increase long-term rates and help to mitigate some of the most negative side effects of the extremely expansionary monetary policy, such as misallocations in asset markets. In contrast, starting with an increase of the rate on the deposit facility would reduce the implicit tax on banks’ liquidity holdings at the ECB, which could improve financial stability. Forward guidance and clear communication from the ECB are crucial to safeguarding a smooth transition back to a more conventional monetary policy.     

An analysis of competing IMF reform proposals

In the wake of several major crises, in which it played a highly controversial role, the IMF has recently come under heavy fire from various quarters. A number of proposals for reform have been put forward, of which the report of the Meltzer Commission has attracted particularly widespread attention. The authors analyze this and some competing reform proposals using the “trilemma of economic integration”, which the US Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, suggested as a common framework for investigation.     

The Sources of Financing Constraints

Which financial frictions drive firms’ financing constraints? We structurally estimate dynamic firm financing models embedding many financial frictions, on panels of public firms and private firms. We focus on limited enforcement, moral hazard, and trade-off models and assess which models rationalize best observed corporate policies across various samples. Our tests, based on empirical policy function benchmarks, favor trade-off models for larger public firms, limited commitment models for smaller public firms, and moral hazard models for Private firms. Our estimates suggest significant financing constraints due to agency frictions and highlight the importance of identifying their sources for firm valuation.     

Subsidios a la contratación de personas con discapacidades. Resultados de un pequeño experimento de campo

La eficacia de los subsidios a la contratación de personas con discapacidades es dudosa debido a posibles efectos de peso muerto, sustitución y señalización. Para evaluarla, los autores proponen un experimento natural basado en candidaturas de empleo que revelan o no (aleatoriamente) el derecho al subsidio del candidato. Según la tasa de convocatorias a entrevista logradas, concluyen que el subsidio es ineficaz o contraproducente para un grupo de adolescentes con su formación profesional recién terminada, pero el efecto negativo de señalización resulta mucho más débil para los clientes de un servicio de orientación laboral que contrajeron su discapacidad durante su vida activa.