基于Nerlove模型的中国小麦供给反应研究

依据1981—2006年中国小麦播种面积、价格和生产成本的时间序列数据,应用Nerlove模型,测算了我国小麦播种面积对价格和成本的反应程度。研究结果表明:我国小麦播种面积对价格的反应程度短期较小,但长期较大,这说明小麦供给对价格的反应存在滞后性;与价格弹性相比,小麦的成本弹性要小得多。因此,制定小麦政策时,应在稳定小麦生产资料价格的同时,加大对小麦价格支持政策的连续性,以促使麦农形成对小麦价格增长的稳定预期。     

我国垄断行业收入与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于面板协整理论

基于1990—2008年我国垄断行业收入的面板数据,通过面板协整、Engle-Granger检验以及运用误差修正模型对我国垄断行业的收入水平与经济增长的长期关系进行分析。研究结果显示:与能源、交通相关的垄断行业的收入与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;与能源相关的垄断行业的收入对经济增长具有正向影响,而与交通相关的垄断行业的收入对经济增长的影响不太显著;金融保险业和房地产业的收入与经济增长之间并不存在长期稳定的面板协整关系。     

Forecasting the aggregate stock market volatility in a data-rich world

ABSTRACT

In this article, we utilize the basic lasso and elastic net models to revisit the predictive performance of aggregate stock market volatility in a data-rich world. Motivated by the existing literature, we determine several candidate predictors that have 22 technical indicators and 14 macroeconomic and financial variables. Our out-of-sample results reveal several noteworthy findings. First, few macroeconomic and financial variables and most of technical indicators have superior performance relative to the benchmark model. Second, combination forecasts are able to significantly beat the benchmark and some signal predictors Third, the lasso and elastic models with all predictors can generate more accurate forecasts than the benchmark and some other predictors in both the statistical and economic sense. Fourth, the lasso and elastic models exhibit higher forecast accuracy during periods of expansions and recessions. Finally, our findings are robust to several tests, such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, and forecasting evaluations.     

Market Sentiment and Investor Overreaction: Evidence from New York Listed Asian Country Exchange Traded Funds

This article investigates Asian Country Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) price deviation with underlying due to market sentiment. By implementing a dynamic contrarian trading strategy and a buy-and-hold strategy, this article finds that significant abnormal excess trading profit can be generated by capitalizing on the overnight price reversion. The excess return generated by the dynamic strategy over buy-and-hold separates the influence of market sentiment to ETF price deviation from fundamental movements. By studying the relations between variations of the excess returns and market sentiment, the article finds that the ETF price deviation is highly influenced by market sentiment and the effect exacerbates during financial crisis and distress.     

Integrating circular business models and development tools in the circular economy transition process: A firm‐level framework

Along with the concept of circular economy growing worldwide, circular business models (CBMs) have been receiving ever greater attention in both the business sector and academia. However, the existing literature on the CBM is scattered and fragmented; this study offers an integrated firm‐level framework to link CBM typologies, the circular economy transition process, and relevant tools for CBM development and clarifies the positioning and roles of those tools in the process. In response to the fragmentation issue, results of this study are presented in three subtopics: (a) CBM typologies and archetypes, (b) transition guidelines, and (c) major analytical tools for CBM research. The roles and functions of CBM typologies and tools were integrated in different stages of the transition process, and the challenges and shortfalls for CBM research in the various stages were identified. This work lays the foundation for future operational studies.     

Institutional investors,controlling shareholders and CEO pay‐performance relationship: evidence from China

Using a large sample of China’s listed firms between 2005 and 2015, we find that domestic mutual funds have a positive effect on the CEO pay‐performance relationship, and this effect becomes stronger when their ownership is higher and closer to the controlling shareholder’s ownership. This effect is stronger in non‐state‐owned enterprises (non‐SOEs), firms facing weaker industry competition incentives, and firms located in more developed regions. However, Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs) do not have such an influence. Overall, our study contends that the effectiveness of institutional investors’ monitoring role is subject to their identity, controlling shareholders and institutional environments.     

Metrisable assessment of the course of stream-systemic processes in vector form in industry 4.0

Quality & Quantity - The goal of this paper is to present an innovative conception how to use metrisable vector structure of a manufacturing process, based on quantitative relations between the...     

Toward sustainable corporate behavior: The effect of the critical mass of female directors on environmental,social, and governance disclosure

Boards of directors have recently become more attentive to their stakeholders' concerns, providing more transparent information and adopting more sustainable business strategies. This study investigates the influence of a critical mass of women on boards on the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure score and its three components separately. Using a sample of the FTSE-MIB listed companies in the 2005–2017 period, we show that reaching a critical mass of female board members—going from one or two women to at least three—enhances the level of ESG disclosure. The results also show that the critical mass of female board members has a positive influence on every component of the ESG score, with the highest contribution of women reaching the governance score. These findings provide insights to shareholders and policymakers and suggest that a critical mass of female board members is particularly effective in improving transparency, and it can be seen as a mechanism to transit to stakeholder governance, fostering more sustainable behavior in firms.     

Macroeconomic Effects of an Ageing Population in Mauritius

The economic literature focuses mostly on faster ageing of population among developed countries; however, many developing countries experience even more dramatic pace of this process. Mauritius, with the median age of population higher than the world average since 1990s, represents a prominent example of such a case. In this paper, we analyse demographic developments in Mauritius and discuss their macroeconomic implications using an open-economy OLG model with demographic shocks. We project that a decline in the Mauritian interest rate and net foreign assets to GDP resulting from ageing will be accompanied by a temporary increase in GDP, consumption and investment.