On the Transmission Mechanism of Policy Shocks in Developing Countries

The debate over the effectiveness of demand-side stabilizing policies has often centred over the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies. Demand- and supply-side constraints are both relevant. On the supply side, price flexibility may be the result of structural and/or institutional constraints that warrant a larger degree of price adjustment in the face of demand fluctuations. On the demand side, structural constraints may hinder the transmission mechanism of demand fluctuations, resulting in an inelastic aggregate demand in the face of policy adjustments. Using data for 50 developing countries, supply-side constraints do not differentiate the transmission mechanism of policy shocks to price inflation and output growth. In contrast, a larger demand shift in the face of monetary and government spending shocks increases the real and inflationary effects of policy shocks. The pronounced evidence of upward price flexibility points to the importance of addressing supply-side capacity constraints to counter inflationary pressures in developing countries. Equally important is to analyse determinants of private spending to identify channels for influencing aggregate spending and maximizing the effectiveness of stabilization policies.     

Demand Shift across US Industries and the Stabilizing Function of Nominal Wage and Price Flexibility.

Nominal wage and price adjustments in response to demand shocks are likely to determine industrial output variability. The direction of this relationship is complicated, however, by demand and supply factors. The empirical investigation across a sample of private industries in the United States produces the following evidence. Price flexibility moderates the response of the output supplied to a given shift in industrial demand. Similarly, nominal wage flexibility moderates, although insignificantly, the output response to a given shift in industrial demand. The size of industrial demand shifts dominates, however, supply-side constraints in differentiating output fluctuations across industries. While price flexibility moderates shifts in industrial demand in response to aggregate demand shocks, these shifts are larger the higher the nominal wage flexibility across industries. The combined supply and demand effects differentiate the stabilizing function of nominal wage and price flexibility. Nominal wage flexibility increases output fluctuations in response to aggregate demand shocks. In contrast, output fluctuations are smaller the larger the price adjustment to demand shocks across industries. Given the endogeneity of price flexibility, it is necessary to control for variation in demand variability in order to reveal the stabilizing effect of price flexibility on output across industries.     

SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk

This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk that incorporates the structural characteristics of the financial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain financial stress using both public and proprietary supervisory data from systemically important institutions, regressing institutional imbalances using an optimal lag method. The Systemic Assessment of Financial Environment (SAFE) EWS monitors microprudential information from the largest bank holding companies to anticipate the buildup of macroeconomic stresses in the financial markets. To mitigate inherent uncertainty, SAFE develops a set of medium-term forecasting specifications that gives policymakers enough time to take ex-ante policy action and a set of short-term forecasting specifications for verification and adjustment of supervisory actions. This paper highlights the application of these models to stress testing and policy.     

On the relationship between public and private spending in developing and developed countries

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the effectiveness of government spending. The emphasis is on the relationship between public spending and private spending. The objective is to identify whether the effects of public spending on macro variables are reinforced or mitigated through the spillover effects on private spending. The evidence attests to the importance of stimulating private spending to maximize the positive effect of an increase in public spending on real growth. Concerns about the crowding out effects of higher public spending on private demand are more dominant in developing countries. Moreover, the scope for government spending to determine aggregate uncertainty is much larger in developing countries. Overall, the evidence attests to the importance of managing trends and variability of government spending towards maximizing the fiscal multiplier. The paper's evidence spells out potential to maximize the fiscal multiplier via private spending and concerns about the ineffectiveness of fiscal policy where crowding out concerns dominate.     

Wage differentials across sectors in Europe

Using a unique harmonized linked employer–employee dataset, this paper analyses the structure and determinants of inter‐industry wage differentials in Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) and compares them to those observed in Western European states. Findings show substantial differences in earnings across sectors in all countries, even when controlling for a wide range of employee, job and employer characteristics. The hierarchy of sectors in terms of wages appears to be quite similar in Eastern and Western European countries, although the former tend to have higher levels of dispersion of inter‐industry wage differentials.     

Consumption,Credit, and Macroeconomic Policies: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Abstract

The paper examines determinants of private consumption in the USA. The empirical model includes disposable income, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the interest rate, and the real effective exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these determinants are likely to affect planned consumption, while unanticipated changes determine cyclical consumption. Fluctuations in private consumption are mostly cyclical with respect to changes in disposable income and the consumers’ sentiment index. In contrast, an increase in the interest rate decreases both planned and cyclical consumption. Fiscal policy has a direct negative effect on cyclical consumption, which is not dependent on the interest rate. Monetary growth, in contrast, increases liquidity to finance both planned and cyclical private consumption.     

Oil dependency and exchange rate regimes in Arab oil economies: time to rethink the paradigm

This study examines implications of the current exchange rate regimes on the macroeconomic and growth performance of five Arab oil-producing countries: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Sudan, Algeria and Yemen. The study evaluates alternative exchange rate regime policy options towards exploring an optimal exit strategy to ensure successful transition to more sustainable exchange rate regime, especially in the fixed regime economies of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This study proposes the adoption of a transparent broad basket, band and crawl (BBC) regime by the Arab oil economies in order to provide a better alternative to the existing fixed pegs or dirty floats. However, it is imperative to note that, the timing of the exit from the current regime and the extent of institutional development and market sophistications are very critical to successful transition to more sustainable regime that would provide a larger scope for counter-cyclical policies and diversification in these economies.     

Variation in the fiscal multiplier with the method of financing: evidence across industrial countries

Government spending has often varied with the business cycle to stimulate the economy and to revive economic conditions. However, the state of public finances has often necessitated higher borrowing to finance widening fiscal deficits. Indeed, recent austerity packages around the globe have crystalized the importance of fiscal consolidation against the backdrop of rising public debt. To shed light on recent debates regarding fiscal multipliers, the article estimates variation in these multipliers with the method of financing, using annual data for a sample of industrial countries. There is a large variation in the effects of expansionary and contractinary government spending shocks on economic variables within and across countries. The significant effects of negative government spending shocks (fiscal contraction) appear more prevalent than those of expansionary shocks on real output growth, price inflation and nominal wage inflation. Consistent with theory’s predictions, the fiscal multiplier is more likely to be negative when government spending is financed by issuing debt and less likely in the case of monetization. The evidence confirms concerns about the negative effect of higher debt and more expensive financing on private activity, countering the effectiveness of fiscal policy.     

Family firms’ investments, uncertainty and opacity

This paper contributes to the literature on family firms in two ways. First, it focuses on a largely neglected but important issue of family firms’ investment decisions. Second, it uses a novel and rich data set about Italian private firms; this complements the literature, which typically focuses on publicly traded companies, in an important way, given that most family firms are private and relatively little information is available on their behaviour. Our results suggest that family firms’ investments are significantly more sensitive to uncertainty than nonfamily firms. We find evidence that the greater sensitivity to uncertainty is basically due to the greater opacity of family firms and to their higher risk aversion, rather than to the degree of sunk fixed capital as is typical in the literature on investment decisions.