Precommitment by central bank independence

The paper addresses the issue of central bank independence. The central argument is that government can precommit to the objective of price stability by providing a constitutional status of independence to the central bank. A sufficient set of institutional elements and the problem of incentive compatibility are discussed. It is argued that the solution is superior to a constitutional money rule as no rule can take adequately into account trend changes in output or velocity.     

The Kreps-Wilson monopoly-entrant game and cautiously rationalizable sequential equilibria

In this paper the α and β characteristic functions are reviewed and a new concept, the credible threat function, is introduced following some tentative remarks on the credibility of threats.     

The economic constitution of the European community: From Rome to Maastricht

The present paper analyzes the changes in the economic constitution of the European Community since its foundation in 1958. In order to identify the various changes, we start by developing a frame of reference. Our proposition is that theconstitutional charter of the European Economic Community (EEC)—the EEC Treaty—came closest to this frame of reference, being an economic constitution for a market system, whereas the subsequentprocess of European integration—including several modifications of the Treaty—was largely based on the introduction of non-market elements. Our argument is that as far as the economic constitution is concerned, the Treaty of Maastricht is dominated by traits which are characteristic of modern welfare states.     

A CYCLING METHOD FOR CONSTRUCTING INPUT–OUTPUT TABLE TIME SERIES FROM INCOMPLETE DATA

There are a number of approaches for constructing time series of input–output tables. Some authors generate an initial estimate for a base year, and then serially estimate tables for subsequent years using the balanced prior-year table as an initial estimate. Others first generate a series of initial estimates for the entire period, and then balance tables in parallel. Current serial methods are affected by sudden leaps in the magnitude of table elements, which occur straight after a period of data unavailability. Current parallel methods require two complete tables for base and final years in the same classification, and therefore do not work under misaligned or incomplete data. We present a new method for constructing input–output table time series that overcomes these problems by averaging over alternate forward and backward sweeps across the time series period. We also solve the problem of hysteresis causing forecast and backcast table estimates to differ.     

Bid Functions in Auctions and Fair Division Games: Experimental Evidence

In auctions a seller offers a commodity for sale and collects the revenue. In fair division games the object is collectively owned by the group of bidders who equally share the revenue. We run an experiment in which the participants face four types of allocation games (auctions and fair division game under two price rules, first– versus second–price rule). We collect entire bid functions rather than bids for single values and investigate price and efficiency of the different trading institutions. We find that the first–price auction is more efficient than the second–price auction, whereas economic rationality assuming heterogeneous bidders suggests the opposite. Furthermore, we study the structure of individual bid functions.     

Financial deepening,trade openness and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

This contribution investigates the causal interactions between financial deepening, trade openness and economic growth in 13 Latin American and Caribbean countries. We construct a composite indicator for financial deepening and use it to detect Granger causality within a modified Vector Autoregressive/Vector Error Correction Model (VAR/VECM) framework. We find almost no evidence for the popular hypothesis of finance-led growth. Evidence of bidirectional finance–growth causality is stronger but mostly instable in the long run. Most results indicate a demand following or insignificant causal relationship between finance and growth. There is also no evidence that finance indirectly induces growth via the channel of trade openness. Hence, policies that prioritize financial and trade sector development cannot be supported.     

Shared producer and consumer responsibility — Theory and practice

Over the past decade, an increasing number of authors have been examining the nexus of producer versus consumer responsibility, often dealing with the question of how to assign responsibility for internationally traded greenhouse gas emissions. Recently, a similar problem has appeared in drafting the standards for the Ecological Footprint: While the method traditionally assumes a full life-cycle perspective with full consumer responsibility, a large number of producers (businesses and industry sectors) have started to calculate their own footprints (see www.isa.org.usyd.edu.au). Adding any producer's footprint to other producers' footprints, or to population footprints, which all already cover the full upstream supply chain of their operating inputs, leads to double-counting: The sum of footprints of producers and consumers is larger than the total national footprint. The committee in charge of the Footprint standardisation process was hence faced with the decades-old non-additivity problem, posing the following dilemma for the accounting of footprints, or any other production factor: if one disallows double-counting, but wishes to be able to account for producers and consumers, then one cannot impose the requirement of full life-cycle coverage; the supply chains of actors have to be curtailed somehow in order to avoid double-counting. This work demonstrates and discusses a non-arbitrary method of consistently delineating these supply chains, into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive portions of responsibility to be shared by all actors in an economy.     

Water accounting in Australia

This paper introduces water accounting as produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). It provides information about the ABS Water Accounts and highlights the many other organisations involved in the provision and use of water related data in Australia. The ABS Water Accounts have built upon previous reports on Australian water resources and the System of Environment and Economic Accounting [UN (United Nations) 2003. Draft Handbook Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting. Studies in Methods, Series F, No. 61, Rev. 1. United Nations, European Commission, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, World Bank. New York.]. Information from the ABS Water Accounts is presented along with examples of their use in economic analyses designed to inform public debate and government decision-makers.A key feature of the Australian environment is that water is relatively scarce when compared with other inhabited continents. Rainfall displays a high level of spatial and temporal variability and droughts are common. In 2004 an Intergovernmental Agreement on a National Water Initiative (NWI) was reached by Australia's national and eight state and territory governments. The NWI aims to address environmental, economic and social concerns about the current and future state of Australia's water resources. The NWI specifically calls for the preparation of annual water accounts, which clearly indicates the expected usefulness of national and regional water accounts.     

General Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields

US yield curve dynamics are subject to time-variation, but there is ambiguity about its precise form. This paper develops a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, which treats the nature of parameter dynamics as unknown. Coefficients can evolve according to a random walk, a Markov switching process, observed predictors, or depend on a mixture of these. To decide which form is supported by the data and to carry out model selection, we adopt Bayesian shrinkage priors. Our framework is applied to model the US yield curve. We show that the model forecasts well, and focus on selected in-sample features to analyze determinants of structural breaks in US yield curve dynamics.