Time–frequency relationship between US inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from historical data

We provide new evidence on the relationship between inflation and its uncertainty in the United States on an historical basis, covering the period from 1775 to 2014. First, we use a bounded approach for measuring inflation uncertainty, as proposed by Chan et al. (2013), and compare the results with the Stock and Watson (2007) and Chan (2015) methods. Second, we employ the wavelet methodology to analyze the comovements and causal effects between the two series. Our results provide evidence of a relationship between inflation and its uncertainty that varies across time and frequency. First, we show that in the medium and long runs, the Freidman–Ball hypothesis holds with a bounded measure of uncertainty, while if the Stock and Watson (2007) measure of uncertainty is used, the Cukierman–Meltzer reasoning prevails. Therefore, the findings are sensitive to the way inflation uncertainty is computed. Second, we discover mixed evidence about the inflation–uncertainty nexus in the short run, findings that explain the mixed results reported to date in the empirical literature.     

Dynamic Comovements Between Housing and Oil Markets in the US over 1859 to 2013: a Note

In this study, we examine the dynamic comovements between housing and oil market returns in the United States over the period 1859–2013, while controlling for real gross domestic product growth, inflation, interest rates, and real stock, gold and silver returns that are known to affect both these markets. As such, we provide a bird’s-eye view on the interdependencies between these two markets from a historical perspective. The results of our empirical analysis reveal that comovements between housing and oil market returns are consistently negative over time, apart from several recessions the U.S. economy experienced in the 19th century, wherein correlations were positive.     

Where have all the brides gone? Son preference and marriage in India over the twentieth century

Marriage is universal for women in India, but the marriage rate for men varies across regions, where the region is a proxy for shared cultural norms. A preference for sons results in a biased sex ratio towards men and creates a shortage of brides in the marriage market. Using the Indian census of 1931, the article finds that son preference was a regional phenomenon and led to a low marriage rate for men. Using caste‐level information, the article finds no evidence that men from the upper castes enjoyed an advantage in the marriage market as the theoretical literature predicts. The regional differences in gender bias and marriage market outcomes have persisted over the twentieth century and indicate the persistence of cultural values. The long‐run changes show that the marriage squeeze has reduced the surplus of men in all regions; however, the regional differences in son preference and marriage outcomes were still the same in 2001.     

Investigation of adolescent accident predictive variables in hilly regions

The study aims to determine the significant personal and environmental factors in predicting the adolescent accidents in the hilly regions taking into account two cities Hamirpur and Dharamshala, which lie at an average elevation of 700--1000 metres above the mean sea level (MSL). Detailed comparisons between the results of 2 cities are also studied. The results are analyzed to provide the list of most significant factors responsible for adolescent accidents. Data were collected from different schools and colleges of the city with the help of a questionnaire survey. Around 690 responses from Hamirpur and 460 responses from Dharamshala were taken for study and analysis. Standard deviations (SD) of various factors affecting accidents were calculated and factors with relatively very low SD were discarded and other variables were considered for correlations. Correlation was developed using Kendall's-tau and chi-square tests and factors those were found significant were used for modelling. They were – the victim's age, the character of road, the speed of vehicle, and the use of helmet for Hamirpur and for Dharamshala, the kind of vehicle involved was an added variable found responsible for adolescent accidents. A logistic regression was performed to know the effect of each category present in a variable on the occurrence of accidents. Though the age and the speed of vehicle were considered to be important factors for accident occurrence according to Indian accident data records, even the use of helmet comes out as a major concern. The age group of 15–18 and 18–21 years were found to be more susceptible to accidents than the higher age groups. Due to the presence of hilly area, the character of road becomes a major concern for cause of accidents and the topography of the area makes the kind of vehicle involved as a major variable for determining the severity of accidents.     

Do investments in intangible customer assets affect firm value?

This paper develops a simple model of investment by service firms in intangible customer assets, and tests whether the model identifies some critical drivers of firms’ stock returns. Similar to firms with significant research and development (R&D) expenditures, we argue that firms in fast-growing service industries with few tangible assets can increase firm value by investing in customer acquisition and service (A&S) expenditure. Using a unique hand-collected data set, we show that per-customer changes in firms’ revenues, customer acquisition costs, and customer service costs help to explain their abnormal stock returns.     

Non-cognitive child outcomes and universal high quality child care

Exploiting a rich panel data child survey merged with administrative records along with a pseudo-experiment generating variation in the take-up of preschool across municipalities, we provide evidence of the effects on non-cognitive child outcomes of participating in large scale publicly provided universal preschool programs and family day care vis-à-vis home care. We find that, compared to home care, being enrolled in preschool at age three does not lead to significant differences in child outcomes at age seven no matter the gender or the mother's level of education. Family day care, on the other hand, seems to significantly deteriorate outcomes for boys whose mothers have a lower level of education. Finally, longer hours in non-parental care lead to poorer child outcomes.     

An evolving science-society contract in India: The search for legitimacy in anticipatory risk governance

This article analyzes evolving institutions and practices of anticipatory risk governance in India, through the lens of two recent and highly controversial developments in governing genetically modified crops in Indian agriculture. These developments include, first, conflicts over approving (or not) the very first genetically modified food crop in India and a related experiment in participatory decision-making; and second, proposals to revamp the existing biosafety regulatory system (with its checks and balances across diverse sources of authority) with one that elevates scientists and scientific expertise to the pinnacle of decision-making power. The article analyzes the distinct means by which legitimacy is sought to be conferred upon the means and ends of anticipatory risk governance, as reflected in these two examples. I contrast claims to legitimacy deriving from innovative experiments in participatory democracy with legitimacy claims based upon “objective” science, showing that despite acknowledged need for the former, the latter is still being prioritized. The article concludes by identifying the contours of an evolving science-society contract in India, as revealed by these cases.     

Institutional environment for entrepreneurship in rapidly emerging major economies: the case of Brazil,China, India,and Korea

The country institutional profile (CIP) construct has become the most widely used conceptualization of institutional environment for entrepreneurship. This construct is frequently employed to study institutional forces influencing entrepreneurial activity at the national level. However, relatively little is known about the cross-national equivalence of the construct. Moreover, the institutional environment for entrepreneurship in emerging economies remains largely under-explored. To address these issues, in the current study, we used the most frequently utilized CIP scale to collect data from 809 young adults in four rapidly emerging countries: Brazil, China, India, and South Korea. We examined the invariance of the CIP construct and unraveled differences in perceived institutional profiles among these rapidly emerging economies. Results support the CIP construct as largely invariant in the four REME countries and revealed important differences in specific aspects of institutional environments in these countries. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.