Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?

This paper develops large-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, based on 268 quarterly series, for forecasting annualized real house price growth rates for large-, medium- and small-middle-segment housing for the South African economy. Given the in-sample period of 1980:01–2000:04, the large-scale BVARs, estimated under alternative hyperparameter values specifying the priors, are used to forecast real house price growth rates over a 24-quarter out-of-sample horizon of 2001:01–2006:04. The forecast performance of the large-scale BVARs are then compared with classical and Bayesian versions of univariate and multivariate Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, merely comprising of the real growth rates of the large-, medium- and small-middle-segment houses, and a large-scale Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), which comprises of the same 268 variables included in the large-scale BVARs. Based on the one- to four-quarters-ahead Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) over the out-of-sample horizon, we find the large-scale BVARs to not only outperform all the other alternative models, but to also predict the recent downturn in the real house price growth rates for the three categories of the middle-segment-housing over the period of 2003:01–2008:02.     

帮助贫困人口

在贫困国家，用于教育与卫生保健的支出能促进人力资本的发展，并帮助它们实现千年发展目标，不过政府必须敢于承担责任。     

Foreign capital and technology transfer in a dynamic model

We consider a dynamic three-sector dual-economy model when the technology transfer takes place from the foreign enclave to the labor-intensive domestic enclave. The long-run equilibrium and the comparative steady-state effects are analyzed. It is shown that the policy of subsidization to the foreign enclave may satisfy the conflicting tasks of raising national income and lowering unemployment simulataneously in the long run. Subsidization to a domestic enclave does not satisfy both the objectives.     

Estimation of the precision matrix of multivariate Pearson type II model

In this paper, the problem of estimating the precision matrix of a multivariate Pearson type II-model is considered. A new class of estimators is proposed. Moreover, the risk functions of the usual and the proposed estimators are explicitly derived. It is shown that the proposed estimator dominates the MLE and the unbiased estimator, under the quadratic loss function. A simulation study is carried out and confirms these results. Improved estimator of tr (Σ ⁻¹) is also obtained.     

Gender Characterizations in Entrepreneurship: A Multi‐Level Investigation of Sex‐Role Stereotypes about High‐Growth,Commercial, and Social Entrepreneurs

The purpose of this study is to cast new light on possible gender biases in implicit theories people hold about various forms of entrepreneurial activity. Using social role theory, we delve into sex‐role stereotypes associated with high‐ and low‐growth entrepreneurship and commercial and social entrepreneurship. Predictions were tested with an experimental design using both a between‐subject design to capture group‐level stereotypes and a within‐subject design to capture individual‐level stereotypes. Findings reveal that commercial and high‐growth entrepreneurs are perceived as more similar to men than to women and higher on agency than communality. Conversely, low‐growth entrepreneurs are perceived as more similar to women than men, and higher on communality than agency. Social entrepreneurs are uniquely perceived as similar to both men and women, though they are also considered higher on agency than communality. Interestingly, female, but not male respondents, perceive some overlap between the feminine gender role and high‐growth and commercial entrepreneurship. Notably, those higher on modern sexism perceive less overlap between entrepreneurship and femininity. Taken together, our results suggest that commercial high‐growth entrepreneurship is most strongly male‐typed, which is likely to be problematic for women (and non‐traditional men) wanting to start growth‐oriented ventures. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

How Task-Facilitative Interactive Tools Foster Buyers’ Trust in Online Retailers: A Process View of Trust Development in the Electronic Marketplace

While there is a sustained interest in research focusing on issues relating to trust development in the electronic marketplace, significant gaps remain in the literature. In particular, little is known of the underlying processes that may be occurring in online trust development. For example, research suggests that factors such as site design and navigability are among the factors that impact trust perceptions. Extant literature, however, is largely silent about why certain trust-related effects are observed in online environments. In this paper, we propose a new process-centric perspective for understanding the formation of online trust—through buyer's assessment of the e-retailer's assistive intent, implicitly embedded in task-facilitative interactive tools. Specifically, we develop and test a model delineating the relationship between seller's provision of interactive product information management and product information comprehension tools, buyer's perceptions of seller's assistive intent, and buyer's initial trust in the seller. The results of two studies provide support for the trust-enhancing effects of task-facilitative informational tools and the mediating role of buyer's perceptions of seller's assistive intent. Importantly, these effects occur without any explicit expressions of seller's intentions. The results also suggest that the efficacy of interactive informational tools in engendering perceptions of seller's assistive intent, and hence trust, varies with the buyer's level of involvement with and knowledge of the product category.     

External validation of the use of vignettes in cross-country health studies

Cross-country comparisons of subjective assessments are rendered difficult if not impossible because of sub-population specific response style. To correct for this, the use of vignettes has become increasingly popular, notably within cross-country health studies. However, the validity of vignettes as a means to re-scale across sample sub-populations critically rests on the assumption of “response consistency” (RC): that vignettes and self-assessments are evaluated on the same scale. In this paper, we seek to test this assumption by applying objective measures of health along with subjective measures and vignettes. Our results indicate that the assumption of RC is not innocuous and that our extended model relaxing this assumption improves the fit and significantly changes the cross-country rankings of health vis-á-vis the standard Chopit model.     

The behavioral responses to perceived scarcity – the case of fast fashion

The literature on scarcity has generally examined consumers’ attitudes towards scarce products and suggested that scarcity messages have a positive effect on the evaluation of and attitude toward the scarce object. However, literature has largely failed to explain consumers’ feelings or reactions to human-controlled scarce environments. This study examines how deliberate product scarcity influences the consumers’ behavioral responses, and provides an understanding of consumers’ reactions to conditions of scarcity that are strategically created by marketers. The context of this study is fast fashion retailers, as they are known to create extreme human-induced scarcity. We conducted 21 face-to-face interviews with fast fashion store managers, consumers, and an industry expert. Further, observational research was also conducted to observe the consumer buying behavior across 10 different fast fashion stores. The objectives were to (1) help the interviewees think about the various strategies adopted to induce scarcity within the stores (from retailer’s perspective), (2) understanding of scarcity in these stores (from consumer’s perspective), and (3) consumers’ responses to such deliberate manipulations. All the interviewees agreed that fast fashion stores were successful in creating perceived scarcity which reflected both limited merchandise supply as well as deliberate manipulation of merchandise availability by the retailer. The findings also suggest that consumers in these perceived scarcity conditions exhibit buying behavior like urgency to buy, which further leads to deviant and competitive behaviors like in-store hoarding and in-store hiding. Though perceived scarcity, urgency to buy, and in-store hoarding was consistent across the interviews with store managers and consumers, surprisingly, the phenomenon of in-store hiding behavior did not emerge from any of the interviews conducted with store managers, but was a consistent theme across most consumer interviews.     

Forecasting South African macroeconomic variables with a Markov-switching small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

This paper seeks to identify evidence of regime-switching behaviour in the monetary policy response function and the variance of the shocks. It makes use of various specifications of a small open-economy Markov-switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that is applied to South African data from 1989 to 2014. While the in-sample statistics suggest that some of the regime-switching models may provide superior results, the out-of-sample statistics suggest that the inclusion of various forms of regime-switching does not significantly improve upon the forecasting performance of the model. The results also suggest that the central bank response function has been consistently applied over the sample period.