Determinants of corporate borrowing: A note

In his article Determinants of Corporate Borrowing, Myers (1977) says that it is not guaranteed that the maximum value of the firm is reached before the maximum value of the debt is utilized in the case in which the interest payment is fully tax deductible, but the tax shield is lost if the firm goes bankrupt. I have shown here that even in such a case the maximum value of the firm will always be achieved before the maximum available debt is utilized.     

On testing the dimensionality of regression coefficients

In this paper, the distribution of a statistic based on the likelihood ratio method for testing the dimensionality of regression coefficients has been derived. The method of integration over alternate variables has been used to derive the results.     

MNE executive insights into international advertising programme standardisation

The standardisation/adaptation debate in international advertising has been a key topic of discussion among practitioners and academics for over 40 years (Agarwal 1995). The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors that influence executive decisions to standardise or adapt as determined by experienced international marketing executives working for large multinational enterprises (MNEs). The investigation initially provides a review of existing literature about the constructs under investigation and then, through in-depth qualitative interviews, it aims to develop an understanding of the factors executives consider important in the standardisation/adaptation decision in order to develop their international advertising strategies. This paper suggests that recognition of the impact of competition, culture, education, marketing institution and consumer related determinants have increased in importance over the years, affecting decisions of advertising theme, creative expression and media mix. Of these, advertising theme is the easiest and most appropriately standardised theme, whereas, creative expression and media mix are most susceptible to adaptation as per the requirement of the MNEs. The paper concludes by highlighting managerial and academic implications.     

Forecasting house prices for the four census regions and the aggregate US economy in a data-rich environment

This article considers the ability of large-scale (involving 145 fundamental variables) time-series models, estimated by dynamic factor analysis and Bayesian shrinkage, to forecast real house price growth rates of the four US census regions and the aggregate US economy. Besides the standard Minnesota prior, we also use additional priors that constrain the sum of coefficients of the VAR models. We compare 1- to 24-months-ahead forecasts of the large-scale models over an out-of-sample horizon of 1995:01–2009:03, based on an in-sample of 1968:02–1994:12, relative to a random walk model, a small-scale VAR model comprising just the five real house price growth rates and a medium-scale VAR model containing 36 of the 145 fundamental variables besides the five real house price growth rates. In addition to the forecast comparison exercise across small-, medium- and large-scale models, we also look at the ability of the ‘optimal’ model (i.e. the model that produces the minimum average mean squared forecast error) for a specific region in predicting ex ante real house prices (in levels) over the period of 2009:04 till 2012:02. Factor-based models (classical or Bayesian) perform the best for the North East, Mid-West, West census regions and the aggregate US economy and equally well to a small-scale VAR for the South region. The ‘optimal’ factor models also tend to predict the downward trend in the data when we conduct an ex ante forecasting exercise. Our results highlight the importance of information content in large number of fundamentals in predicting house prices accurately.     

DSGE model-based forecasting of modelled and nonmodelled inflation variables in South Africa

Inflation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policy-making – especially in an inflation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables, for example alternative measures of inflation that might be of interest to policy-makers, do not feature in the model. Given this, we implement a closed-economy New Keynesian DSGE model-based procedure which includes variables that do not explicitly appear in the model. We estimate such a model using an in-sample covering 1971Q2 to 1999Q4 and generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1 to 2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting inflation variables (both core and nonmodelled) in comparison with forecasts reported by other models such as AR(1). In addition, based on ex-ante forecasts over the period 2012Q1–2013Q4, we find that the DSGE model performs better than the AR(1) counterpart in forecasting actual GDP deflator inflation.     

Factors influencing ‘missing girls’ in South Korea

Despite the massive attention drawn to ‘missing girls,’ there has been no study that specifically focuses on the association between childlessness and the daughter deficit. Using a bivariate probit selection model, this article analysed the data for 6475 married women aged 15–49 years collected from the 2003 Korea National Fertility and Family Health Survey. The results showed that a couple's decision to have a child exerted a significant influence on its daughter deficit. This study also found that the effect of a woman's education on daughter deficit did not correspond to that of her husband's level of education. Additionally, a prediction was made that if a one child family norm were prevailing in South Korea, the probability of a couple's having a daughter deficit would increase by as much as 63.9%.     

Divisional Informativeness Gap and Value Creation from Asset Sales

Nanda and Narayanan (1999) show that the information asymmetry between the managers and market participants regarding divisional cash flows helps explain the value creation on asset sales. Based on their theoretical framework, the divisional informativeness gap hypothesis predicts that the announcement‐period return increases with the difference in cash‐flow informativeness of retained and divested divisions prior to the divestiture. Our results, using industry‐average earnings response coefficient as a proxy for cash‐flow informativeness of a division, support this prediction. The effect is stronger when a conglomerate retains the division with relatively greater growth opportunities.     

Reconsidering the welfare cost of inflation in the US: a nonparametric estimation of the nonlinear long-run money-demand equation using projection pursuit regressions

This paper, first, estimates the appropriate, log–log or semi-log, linear long-run money-demand relationship capturing the behavior US money demand over the period of 1980:Q1–2010:Q4, using the standard linear cointegration procedures found in the literature, and the corresponding nonparametric version of the same based on projection pursuit regression (PPR) methods. We then, compare the resulting welfare costs of inflation obtained from the linear and nonlinear money-demand cointegrating equations. We make the following observations: (i) the appropriate money-demand relationship for the period of 1980:Q1–2010:Q4 is captured by a semi-log function; (ii) based on the estimation of semi-log cointegrating equations, the welfare cost of inflation was found to at the most lie between 0.0131 % of GDP and 0.2186 % of GDP for inflation rates between 0 and 10 %, and; (iii) in comparison, the welfare cost of inflation obtained from the semi-log non-linear long-run money-demand function, derived using the PPR method, for 0–10 % of inflation ranges between 0.4930 and 1.9468 % of GDP. However, the standard errors associated with the welfare cost estimates obtained from PPR relative to the linear models tend to indicate that the nonlinear money demand provides more precise estimates of the welfare costs primarily for higher rates of inflation.