Persistence in Portuguese mutual fund performance

Recent evidence suggests that future performance is predictable from past performance, that is, funds with superior (inferior) performance in the past are likely to remain good (bad) performers in the future. This research addresses the persistence of mutual fund performance in a European regional market (the Portuguese equity fund market). Some of the problems in evaluating fund persistence are identified in the context of limited sample size and using the peer group median as a benchmark for contingency table analysis of performance persistence. The criteria for assessing performance persistence based on the contingency table methodology of repeated winners and losers are presented in terms of significance statistics, adjusted for small sample bias. The adjustments are accomplished through the Yates continuity correction and Fisher's exact p-value. The appropriateness of each criteria under different circumstances is also discussed. The analysis of the returns of all Portuguese domestic equity funds, since a representative number was established, shows some performance persistence (on a quarterly basis). The persistence, however, is reduced when the returns are controlled for the various dimensions of risk. Significant risk persistence has been documented. Furthermore, for more or less frequent intervals of measurement, the industry persistence is rejected, although individual funds exhibit superior/inferior performance.     

Social vulnerability indexes as planning tools: beyond the preparedness paradigm

This article draws from the experience of the ongoing drafting of the Regional Plan of the Centre Region of Portugal, and the empirical application of the Social Vulnerability Index proposed by Susan Cutter. It consists in the construction of an index of social vulnerability to natural and technological hazards and to social risks for all the municipalities of the region. Methodologically, it extends the vulnerability analysis to technological hazards and social risks, as a more encompassing view is necessary for the elaboration of prevention and civil protection policies. The results confirm the interactive nature of social vulnerability, and they also reflect the diffuse urbanisation and industrialisation patterns that characterise Portugal. The scattered nature of social facilities and security and health infrastructures pose specific challenges to planners concerning risk prevention and mitigation, and the elaboration of effective risk communication strategies adapted to specific hazards and risks in the studied municipalities. The article concludes with some reflections on the need to revise established paradigms of disaster analysis and emphasise the importance of pre‐event planning and the social cartography of vulnerable populations for effective prevention and security policies that take into account social inequalities and citizenship rights.     

Why don't Lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults,self-cures and securitization

A leading explanation for the lack of widespread mortgage renegotiation is the existence of frictions in the mortgage securitization process. This paper finds similarly small renegotiation rates for securitized loans and loans held on banks' balance sheets that become seriously delinquent, in particular during the early part of the financial crisis. We argue that information issues endemic to home mortgages, where lenders negotiate with large numbers of borrowers, lead to barriers in renegotiation. Consistent with the theory, renegotiation rates are strongly negatively correlated with the degree of informational asymmetries between borrowers and lenders over the course of the crisis.     

On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world

We study the dynamics of inflation persistence in 45 countries for the period 1960–2008 using a recently developed test for multiple changes in persistence, which decomposes the sample information between adjacent I (0) and I (1) periods. We find that: (i) inflation persistence and average inflation tend to fall and rise at the same time; (ii) in some countries there are changes in the level of inflation which do not seem to be related to changes in inflation persistence; (iii) around half of the countries analyzed do not present any burst of I (1) behavior, and hence have stationary inflation throughout; (iv) for the other half, we detect switches of the type I (0) ? I (1) ? I (0), hence, inflation persistence, when it has occurred, has been temporal; and, (v) for about half of the countries in which inflation has presented I (1) behavior, persistent inflation lasted more than a decade. In addition, we find that in the last 50 years there have been mainly two episodes where long bursts of I (1) inflation took place simultaneously among groups of countries. In general, the “Great Inflation” occurred during the seventies and eighties in advanced economies, whereas it occurred during the eighties and nineties in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America.     

Ugo Broggi: a precursor in mathematical economics

The concern for the existence of solution to the Walras - Cassel model is usually dated at the beginning of the 1930s, and one decade later the proof of existence of utility function. Ugo Broggi, however, posed both issues in 1923 and 1919, respectively, and even hinted at modern ways of solving them. He was an outstanding mathematician, a former disciple of David Hilbert and collaborator with the Giornale degli Economisti. Broggi's achievements are also linked to a critical reading of Osorio's treatise on Paretian economics.     

Bentham and Owen on entrepreneurship and social reform

Abstract

Jeremy Bentham invested an important amount of money in New Lanark's cotton mills, which at that time were run by Robert Owen. However, apparently Bentham never took a serious interest in the organisation of such a successful entrepreneurship and new model society, although it seemed to fit in with Bentham's ideas of the entrepreneur (‘projector’) and also with Bentham's ideas on social reform, seeking the greatest happiness of the greatest number. This article explains how Bentham's share in New Lanark came about. It tries to ascertain whether the New Lanark experiment and Owen's ideas fit Bentham's managerial theory and ideas on social reform so as to understand why Bentham did not pay more attention to Robert Owen's practice.     

The evolving role of organisational and personal networks in international market venturing

In a study of 1304 Australian manufacturing industry SMEs, we investigate the relationships among networking (i.e., inter-personal and inter-organisational networks), international market venturing (i.e., export intensity), and family ownership. We find evidence that (1) inter-personal networking and inter-organisational networking positively influence SME international market venturing, but this relationship is contingent on a time lag effect, and (2) family ownership negatively moderates the effect of inter-organisational networking on international market venturing. Implications for managerial practice and public policy are discussed.     

Unbundling tolls from contracts: a new road PPP model

Considerable evidence from different countries has revealed important shortcomings in most road public–private partnership (PPP) models. In this paper a new PPP model is presented that overcomes some of the problems found in PPP road contracts. The new model is based on separating user tolls from the fees paid to PPP contractors and setting up new institutional arrangements to oversee PPPs.     

Developing an alert system for local governments in financial crisis

This article presents a new model which will show whether a local authority is heading for financial trouble. The model is simple for national audit bodies to use and provides an early warning of financial tensions allowing corrective action to be taken before there is a crisis.     

Enterprise Web Accessibility Levels Amongst the Forbes 250: Where Art Thou O Virtuous Leader?

The research team measured the enterprise web accessibility levels of the Forbes 250 largest enterprises using the fully automatic accessibility evaluation tool Sortsite, and presented the compliance of the evaluated websites to WCAG 1.0, WCAG 2.0 and Section 508 accessibility levels. Given the recent attention to organizational leaders having ethical duties towards their dedicated employees, we propose that ‘societal citizenship behaviour’ concerns ethical duties of organizational leaders towards society in general and in particular to those who have less means to assert their needs. In effect, we found enterprise website accessibility levels to be in need of significant improvement. An interpretation of a positive path forward to better enterprise website accessibility levels is put forth based on a focus-group interaction and using BNML—a novel Business Narrative Modelling Language.