Do Newspaper Articles Predict Aggregate Stock Returns?

We analyze whether newspaper content can predict aggregate future stock returns. Our study is based on articles published in the Handelsblatt, a leading German financial newspaper, from July 1989 to March 2011. We summarize newspaper content in a systematic way by constructing word-count indices for a large number of words. Word-count indices are instantly available and potentially valuable financial indicators. Our main finding is that newspaper articles have provided information valuable for predicting future DAX returns in and out of sample. We find evidence that the predictive power of newspaper content has increased over time, particularly since 2000. Our results suggest that a cluster analysis approach increases the predictive power of newspaper articles substantially.     

Compliance with Mandatory Environmental Reporting in Financial Statements: The Case of Spain (2001–2003)

Corporate, Social, Ethical and Environmental Reporting (SEER) should ideally discharge the accountability of an organisation to its stakeholders. Voluntary reporting has been characterised by a dearth of neutral and objective information such that the advocates of SEER recommend that it be made compulsory. Their underlying rationale is that legally specified disclosure requirements and enforcement mechanisms will enhance the quality of such reporting. This paper sets out to explore how realistic this scenario actually is, in view of the conflicting interpretations in the literature on this subject. To that end, a survey of the reporting patterns of 78 of the largest Spanish companies between 2001 and 2003 examines the extent of their compliance with the ICAC-2002 standard, which obliged them to make environmental disclosures in their financial statements. The results suggest that progressive and improved regulation could increase the volume and quality of SEER disclosures. They also suggest, however, that persistent non-compliance means that the problems associated with voluntary disclosure still exist. Finally, through an impression management perspective, the study reveals, the diverse strategies, ranging from dismissal to concealment, that are employed by companies to avoid transparency. As regulation improves and enforcement expectations rise, it becomes more difficult to dismiss compulsory reporting norms. As a result, some firms engage in more complex concealment strategies to attain corporate legitimacy, depriving stakeholders of regulatory information. The latter point serves to reconcile apparently contradictory explanations in the literature as to whether legitimacy theory might explain partial compliance with SEER regulation. Irene Criado-Jiménez is a Doctoral Candidate at the Departamento de Economía y Administración de Empresas, Universidad de Burgos. Her research interests include accounting for sustainable development and corporate accountability. Manuel Fernández-Chulián is a Doctoral Candidate at the Departamento de Economía y Administración de Empresas, Universidad de Burgos. His research interests include sustainability reporting and full cost accounting. Francisco Javier Husillos-Carqués is Assistant at the Departamento de Gestión de Empresas, Universidad Pública de Navarra and a Doctoral Candidate at the Universidad de Burgos. His research interests include social and environmental reporting and environmental management. Carlos Larrinage-González is Associate Professor at the Departamento de Economía y Administración de Empresas, Universidad de Burgos. His research interests include social and environmental accounting. He writes for interdisciplinary journals in accounting. He has co-edited special issues in European Accounting Review and Accounting, Auditing and Accountability Journal and currently is an Associate Editor of the Revista de Contabilidad-Spanish Accounting Review.     

AHP-Group Decision Making: A Bayesian Approach Based on Mixtures for Group Pattern Identification

This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation procedure to determine the priorities of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in group decision making when there are a large number of actors and a prior consensus among them is not required. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach based on mixtures to describe the prior distribution of the priorities in the multiplicative model traditionally used in the stochastic AHP, this methodology allows us to identify homogeneous groups of actors with different patterns of behaviour for the rankings of priorities. The proposed procedure consists of a two-step estimation algorithm: the first step carries out a global exploration of the model space by using birth and death processes, the second concerns a local exploration by means of Gibbs sampling. The methodology has been illustrated by the analysis of a case study adapted from a real experiment on e-democracy developed for the City Council of Zaragoza (Spain). Partially funded under the research project Electronic Government. Internet-based Complex Decision Making: e-democracy and e-cognocracy (Ref. PM2004-052) approved by the Regional Government of Aragon (Spain) as part of the multi-disciplinary projects programme.     

The Great Forgotten Issue: Vindicating Ethics in the European Qualifications Framework (EQF)

Various international authorities have insisted on the importance of ethical learning in higher education for would-be professionals, including students of Business Administration. As the process of creating the European Higher Education Area gathers pace, first steps have been taken to explicitly incorporate ethics in the common European Qualifications Framework (EQF). However, the authors of this study show how in the course of the EQF development process, the consideration given to ethical qualifications has been curtailed and subjected to serious limitations. In this article, the authors review the historical development and the main elements of the EQF. Then, they analyze the gradual elimination of ethics within the EQF. Finally, they highlight the implications of this gradual elimination and propose avenues for further research. Manuel Guillén is Senior Lecturer in Management, at the University of Valencia (Spain). Prof. Guillén earned his PhD in Management with a specialization in ethics and strategic management integration. He has been a Visiting Scholar at the University of St. Thomas, Minnesota (USA), at the University of Notre Dame, Indiana, USA, and guest Visiting Student at IESE Business School doctoral program, in Barcelona. He has presented some of his research at the top conferences in the field and has published in business ethics and management journals. Since 1997 he has taught Business Ethics courses in different business schools, institutions, and companies. Joan Fontrodona is an Associate Professor of Business Ethics and Academic Director of the Center for Business in Society at IESE Business School. He is member of the Academic Board of EABIS, Chairman of EBEN-Spain, and Member of the Executive Committee of ASEPAM, the Spanish Local Network of the Global Compact. He has published several books and papers on business ethics, corporate social responsibility, philosophy, and management. Alfredo Rodríguez-Sedano holds a PhD in Philosophy and a PhD in Business Administration. He is Professor of Sociology at the Education Department of the University of Navarre (Spain). He is also Visiting Professor at the Catholic University of the West (El Salvador). He has been Visiting Professor at the University of Andes (Chile) and Regular Professor at the Catholic University of Sacred Conception (Chile). He has published 16 books, 12 book chapters, and 15 articles on different subjects in the fields of management, philosophy, and education.     

Managing complexity： A problem of chaos in fisheries policy

This work intends to present chaos theory （and dynamical systems such as the theories of complexity）, in terms of interpretation of ecological phenomena. The chaos theory applied in the context of ecological systems, especially in the context of fisheries has allowed the recognition of the relevance of this kind of theories to explain fishing phenomena and fisheries policies. It has permitted new advances in the study of marine systems, contributing to the preservation of fish stocks. This paper deals with the way how to manage fisheries taking chaos in account of the problem.     

Learning from private and public observations of othersʼ actions

We study the diffusion of dispersed private information in a large economy, where agents learn from the actions of others through two channels: a public channel, such as equilibrium market prices, and a private channel, for example local interactions. We show that, when agents learn only from the public channel, an initial release of public information increases agents? total knowledge at all times and increases welfare. When a private learning channel is present, this result is reversed: more initial public information reduces agents asymptotic knowledge by an amount in order of $\log (t)$ units of precision. When agents are sufficiently patient, this reduces welfare.     

Explaining the US–EU productivity growth gap: Structural change vs. intra-sectoral effect

This paper proposes a decomposition of labour productivity growth in the EU15 and the the US since the mid 1990s. The results suggest that the EU's relative slowdown is due to modest “pure” gains of productivity within sectors.     

Commodity tail risks

In this study, we investigate the cross-section of option-implied tail risks in commodity markets. In contrast to findings from equity markets, left and right tail risks implied by option markets are both large. Commodity-specific variables exert the largest influence on tail risk, while there is no evidence of systematic commodity factors that are linked to tail risk. Additionally, we find strong links to the equity markets, but also comovements to macroeconomic factors. Left or right tail risks are largely independent of variance risk premiums. Finally, both left and right tail risks are priced in the cross-section of commodity futures returns.