Do Newspaper Articles Predict Aggregate Stock Returns?

We analyze whether newspaper content can predict aggregate future stock returns. Our study is based on articles published in the Handelsblatt, a leading German financial newspaper, from July 1989 to March 2011. We summarize newspaper content in a systematic way by constructing word-count indices for a large number of words. Word-count indices are instantly available and potentially valuable financial indicators. Our main finding is that newspaper articles have provided information valuable for predicting future DAX returns in and out of sample. We find evidence that the predictive power of newspaper content has increased over time, particularly since 2000. Our results suggest that a cluster analysis approach increases the predictive power of newspaper articles substantially.     

Geographical and cognitive proximity effects on innovation performance in SMEs: a way through knowledge acquisition

This study explores the relative influence of geographical and cognitive proximity to explain innovation performance. This paper deepens the controversy between the significance of both types of proximity, contributing to a better understand their interconnections. The study further analyzes to what extent knowledge acquisition provides a congruent explanation of the effectiveness of innovation in proximity contexts. The paper has tested a structural model based on a sample of 224 Spanish footwear firms. Footwear industry is a mature and traditional industry with a significant presence of the territorial agglomeration of firms all over Spain. Findings suggest both a direct and indirect effect of cognitive proximity on innovation performance. However, an excess of geographical proximity produces spatial lock-in, thus limiting the access to new knowledge and lowering innovations. By contrast, proximity in terms of goals and culture leads firms belonging to a territorial cluster to achieve knowledge acquisition resulting in relevant innovation. Findings suggest that although transferable valuable knowledge exists in clustered contexts firms should adopt a proactive behavior to have access common knowledge and in order to generate effective innovations.     

A non-parametric independence test using permutation entropy

In the present paper we construct a new, simple, consistent and powerful test for independence by using symbolic dynamics and permutation entropy as a measure of serial dependence. We also give a standard asymptotic distribution of an affine transformation of the permutation entropy under the null hypothesis of independence. The test statistic and its standard limit distribution are invariant to any monotonic transformation. The test applies to time series with discrete or continuous distributions. Eventhough the test is based on entropy measures, it avoids smoothed non-parametric estimation. An application to several daily financial time series illustrates our approach.     

AHP-Group Decision Making: A Bayesian Approach Based on Mixtures for Group Pattern Identification

This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation procedure to determine the priorities of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in group decision making when there are a large number of actors and a prior consensus among them is not required. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach based on mixtures to describe the prior distribution of the priorities in the multiplicative model traditionally used in the stochastic AHP, this methodology allows us to identify homogeneous groups of actors with different patterns of behaviour for the rankings of priorities. The proposed procedure consists of a two-step estimation algorithm: the first step carries out a global exploration of the model space by using birth and death processes, the second concerns a local exploration by means of Gibbs sampling. The methodology has been illustrated by the analysis of a case study adapted from a real experiment on e-democracy developed for the City Council of Zaragoza (Spain). Partially funded under the research project Electronic Government. Internet-based Complex Decision Making: e-democracy and e-cognocracy (Ref. PM2004-052) approved by the Regional Government of Aragon (Spain) as part of the multi-disciplinary projects programme.     

Family firms’ identity communication and consumers’ product involvement impact on consumer response

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the image transfer theory and the elaboration likelihood model can provide a theoretical framework capable of assessing the influence of consumers’ product involvement and family firms’ identity communication through websites on consumer responses. This research conducted an experiment using an eye‐tracking technique measuring attention to family and nonfamily corporate websites. The procedure involved 120 participants. Consistent with the image transfer theory, family firms’ identity through websites positively impacts attitude toward the website and intention to buy. Additionally, the attitude toward the website affects the relationship between family firms’ identity through websites and the intention to buy. In line with the elaboration likelihood model, consumers’ product involvement negatively impacts the relationship between family firms’ identity through websites and intention to buy.     

Loving Outside the Neighborhood: The Conflicting Effects of External Linkages on Incremental Innovation in Clusters

The present study assesses the explanatory capacity of three levels of factors, namely, internal to the company, and internal and external to the cluster, in predicting firms' incremental innovative performance in cluster contexts. The empirical research conducted here focuses on a sample of 92 companies from the Spanish textile industrial cluster in Valencia. Findings reveal that the significant role played by firms' interorganizational ties as a moderating factor between absorptive capacity and their incremental innovative performance. Additionally, results reflect the differentiated roles developed by intra‐ and extra‐cluster linkages in these interaction processes.     

A resource-based view of human resource management and organizational capabilities development

The aim of this research work was to analyse the role of human resource management in the development of organizational capabilities and its influence on the firm's performance from a resource-based view. Our results, from empirical research on a nation-wide sample of Spanish savings banks, suggest that human resource decisions, integrated in a human resource system, have an important influence on the development of organizational capabilities and on the firm's performance.