Portfolio selection with commodities under conditional copulas and skew preferences

This article investigates the portfolio selection problem of an investor with three-moment preferences taking positions in commodity futures. To model the asset returns, we propose a conditional asymmetric t copula with skewed and fat-tailed marginal distributions, such that we can capture the impact on optimal portfolios of time-varying moments, state-dependent correlations, and tail and asymmetric dependence. In the empirical application with oil, gold and equity data from 1990 to 2010, the conditional t copulas portfolios achieve better performance than those based on more conventional strategies. The specification of higher moments in the marginal distributions and the type of tail dependence in the copula has significant implications for the out-of-sample portfolio performance.     

Durable goods,financial frictions,and business cycles in emerging economies

Business cycles in emerging economies display very volatile consumption and strongly countercyclical trade balance. We show that aggregate consumption in these economies is not more volatile than output once durables are accounted for. Then, we present and estimate a real business cycles model for a small open economy that accounts for this empirical observation. Our results show that the role of permanent shocks to aggregate productivity in explaining cyclical fluctuations in emerging economies is considerably lower than previously documented. Moreover, we find that financial frictions are crucial to explain some key business cycle properties of these economies.     

Marktwirtschaftliche Energiewende: Ein Wettbewerbsrahmen für die Stromversorgung mit alternativen Technologien

If the German energy transition is to succeed, environmental soundness should not be the only criterion on the agenda with respect to the restructuring of the energy system. It is rather the security of electricity supply and likewise the social sustainability during the transformation process that has to be ensured. The primary question is how to fulfill this challenge in the light of the legal obligation of a complete nuclear power phase-out in the most cost-effective way. The looming avalanche of costs triggered by record-breaking highs of the expanding solar power systems, promoted under the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), should have made it clear that cost efficiency has only played a minor role so far. According to this study, (real) additional costs for all solar power systems, which had been installed between 2000 and the end of 2011 in Germany, sum up to about 100 billion Euros (prices as of 2011). Since these resources are withdrawn from other societal uses, it is essential that costs for the energy transition in general and in particular the consumers’ costs due to an increased share in renewable energies have to be minimized. For this reason, a new, more cost-efficient and market-oriented promotion/funding system is needed to replace the current system based on the EEG. As suggested by the Monopoly Commission (Monopolkommission 2011), the German Council of Economic Experts (SVR 2011) and recently by acatech, Germany’s National Academy of Science and Engineering (acatech 2012), a market-based promotion system with quantity control in the form of quotas for “green” energy would be a more efficient system. If from 2013 onwards, the future expansion of renewable energies would be fostered by a national quota-based system instead of the EEG, the expansion could be more cost-effective, according to calculations of this study. If, for example, the future price for green electricity certificates exclusively accelerated the expansion of on-shore wind power, the overall subsidies for those wind power capacities that may be installed between 2013 and 2020 merely amount to EUR 6.8 billion (current prices) instead of subsidies in the amount of nearly 58.8 billion Euro (current prices) in the case of further sticking to the EEG. This alone should give sufficient reason to replace the EEG as quickly as possible by a market-based support system such as the quota system.     

Securitization and financial solvency: empirical evidence from Portugal

This paper analyses the effect of securitization issues on the solvency of Portuguese financial institutions. For this purpose, we use an unbalanced panel model estimated using GMM methods and find that securitization has a slightly positive impact on the soundness of the issuing entity. We study 35 financial entities and 60 traditional securitizations issued by 9 originators between 2001 and 2013. The analysis reveals that the financial entities’ soundness improved slightly, showing that securitization enhanced the quality of the originators’ portfolios and increased the regulatory capital requirements. We also found that efficiency and profitability improve the risk-adjusted ROAA and that efficiency increases regulatory capital requirements. The robustness analysis confirms the positive effect of securitization on solvency, where both credit quality and liquidity are shown to be significant variables.     

The determinants of cognitive and non-cognitive educational outcomes: empirical evidence in Spain using a Bayesian approach

This article aims to extend the literature about the role played by socio-economic and family background in educational outcomes by comparing the determinants of two different dimensions of educational output: academic achievement and non-cognitive traits. To do this, we explore the information provided by a self-report survey developed specifically for the purpose of this research. This will provide us with an innovative measure of non-cognitive performance based on particular personal traits, such as responsibility, effort, motivation and critical capacity, as well as a common measure of cognitive proficiency. We use a Bayesian approach to estimate the potential influence of multiple individual and family variables on both dimensions of educational output. From our results, we find that, despite some similarities, there are several important divergences with regard to some socio-economic variables that have been traditionally considered to be the most influential determinants of academic achievement which do not appear to have a significant impact on non-cognitive outcomes.     

Why progressive redistribution can hurt the poor

Recent macroeconomic research discusses credit market imperfections as a key channel through which inequality retards growth: With convex technologies, progressive transfers increase aggregate output because marginal returns become more equalized across investment opportunities. We argue that this reasoning may not hold in general equilibrium. Since the investment functions are concave in wealth, reducing inequality increases capital demand and the interest rate. Hence, through the impact on capital costs, shifting wealth from the rich to the middle class depletes the poorest investors' access to credit. But because the poor face the highest marginal returns, the net effect on output may be negative. We find, however, that redistributing towards the bottom-end of the distribution has a clear positive impact. Finally, we discuss the implications of our theoretical findings for future empirical research.     

Examining the stock performance of acquirers where the acquirer or target hold patents

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We investigate the stock returns for acquirers of firms holding registered patents (“innovative targets”). We find that acquiring...     

Improving value transfer through socio‐economic adjustments in a multicountry choice experiment of water conservation alternatives

This study tests the transferability of the nonmarket values of water conservation for domestic and environmental purposes across three south European countries and Australia applying a common choice experiment design. Different approaches are followed to test the transferability of the estimated values, aiming to minimise transfer errors for use in policy analysis, comparing both single‐ and multicountry transfers, with and without socio‐economic adjustments. Within Europe, significant differences are found between implicit prices for environmental water use, but not for domestic water use. In the Australian case study, alleviating restrictions on domestic water use has no significant value. Pooling the three European samples improves the transferability of the environmental flow values between Europe and Australia. Results show that a reduction in transfer error is achieved when controlling for unobserved and observed preference heterogeneity in the single‐ and multicountry transfers, providing additional support for the superiority of socio‐economic adjustment procedures in value transfer.     

Inequality and growth: the neglected time dimension

Inequality affects economic performance through many mechanisms, both beneficial and harmful. Moreover, some of these mechanisms tend to set in fast while others are rather slow. The present paper (i) introduces a simple theoretical model to study how changes in inequality affect economic growth over different time horizons; (ii) empirically investigates the inequality–growth relationship, thereby relying on specifications derived from the theory. Our empirical findings are in line with the theoretical predictions: Higher inequality helps economic performance in the short term but reduces the growth rate of GDP per capita farther in the future. The long-run (or total) effect of higher inequality tends to be negative.     

The associations between early life circumstances and later life health and employment in Europe

We use data from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe to estimate for thirteen European countries the associations of early life circumstances—measured by childhood health and socioeconomic status (SES)—with educational attainment, and later life health and employment (at ages 50–64). In all countries and for men and women, favorable early life circumstances, and in particular a higher childhood SES, are associated with a higher level of education. In most countries and in particular for women, favorable early life circumstances are associated with better later life health, also when education is controlled for. The significant associations of favorable early life circumstances with a higher incidence of later life employment are mostly transmitted through education and later life health.