A parsimonious model to forecast financial distress,based on audit evidence

This paper provides evidence that audit reports convey relevant evidence for inferring the existence of underlying, unrevealed, financial imbalances. Unlike previous works, which studied US listed-firms bankruptcy, our research deals with Spanish non-financial SMEs under financial stress. Our results indicate that the audit of distressed SMEs has several distinctive features: higher auditor rotation, more qualified reports, and non-compliance with deadlines to approve and file the annual financial statements. We use this evidence to build and test a parsimonious and reliable forecast model. Several implications for auditors’ independence, information quality, and failure forecast are discussed.     

Evolving China Strategies: How the Japanese Compare

Taking a sceptical view of the ‘Asian miracles’ proposition that government failure is the main culprit behind development failure, this article reviews the Philippine development experience. The Philippine configuration consists of a weak state carrying out industrial promotion and a large private sector whose dynamics depend heavily on state-managed privileges. In the final section, the article proposes an alternative to the rent-seeking model, in which rents defined as returns contingent on political position and rivalry over political position determine private investment behaviour. In such a society, there is limited internal basis for structural change and growth is accidental to external developments.     

GENERAL AND PARTIAL EQUILIBRIA IN A CONSUMPTION ECONOMY

We consider a simple aggregative consumption economy, where there is a market for commodities and four financial markets: for bonds, deposits, credits and some speculative asset. There is a Wicksellian central bank. The existence of temporary equilibrium is discussed by considering partial equilibria in the different markets.     

Local water markets for irrigation in southern Spain: A multicriteria approach

Spanish authorities have recently approved a new legislative framework for the creation of local water markets to improve allocative efficiency for this scarce resource. This paper analyses the potential impacts of the policy. A utility function for three groups of farmers was elicited, using a method that does not require interaction with the decision-makers. Utility was measured as a function of the first two moments of the distribution of total gross margin. The utility functions were then used to simulate farmers' responses to changes in the price of water.     

Technical efficiency in the Spanish agrofood industry

This study estimates frontier production functions with cross-section data lor the Spanish agrofood industry by using deterministic and stochastic parameuic approaches. We compute the individual technical efficiency for each firm, compare the results and explain the relationship between technical efficiency and other relevant quantitative variables. The results indicate that the Spanish agrofood industry has a level of efficiency between 68% and 93%; which means that it is potentially capable of increasing production without increasing its Consumption of inputs. This efficiency level is positively related to factor productivity and unitary labour costs.     

Die Kosten des Klimaschutzes am Beispiel der Strompreise für private Haushalte

Power prices in Germany have been surging since the outset of the new millennium. Among the major reasons for this tendency are newly raised taxes and levies on electricity prices, whose introduction is primarily motivated by climate concerns. Without these taxes and levies, net electricity prices would have remained constant for private households. This article discusses these taxes and levies that have been responsible for the cost increases in private households’ electricity consumption. Most influential have been the feed-in tariffs for renewable energies, above all photovoltaics. According to our calculations, the levy for renewables will further increase in the up-coming years, thereby pushing consumers’ electricity cost once again. Our calculations also show that within the next couple of years, there will be a fierce competition among renewable energy technologies, most notably between photovoltaics and wind power. Politics would be well-advised, therefore, to limit the annual capacity of newly installed solar modules in order to avoid both the explosion of consumers’ electricity bills and strong competition among renewables.     

Do stable strategic time periods exist? Towards new methodological and theoretical insights

This paper investigates a fundamental issue in the current research on strategic groups: the existence or non‐existence of the so‐called ‘stable strategic time periods’ (SSTPs). Our study provides new evidence by adding new methodological and theoretical insights. The research setting is the Spanish banking industry over a 15‐year period, 1983–1997. Unlike all prior longitudinal research that found SSTPs, the multi‐method procedure that we used in this study (i.e. equality of variance and covariance matrix and mean vector of strategic variables and a subsequent grouping analysis performed through the MCLUST) has led us to reject the existence of SSTPs in the industry under study. Based on these original findings, we conclude by suggesting a proposition which should be corroborated in future empirical studies on strategic groups. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.