Background Risk and the Performance of Insurance Markets under Adverse Selection

Background risk can influence the performance of insurance markets that must deal with adverse selection when applicants are risk vulnerable, since they are more averse to bearing the insurable risk as a result of their exposures to background risk. We show that background risk always results in a lower deductible for the incentive constrained contract, and that a broader range of markets attains the stable sequential equilibrium cross-subsidized pair of separating contracts. We conclude that background risk always improves the performance of markets for coverage against (insurable) foreground risks that must deal with adverse selection. We also find, however, that these improvements are never sufficient to offset the cost to insureds of bearing the background risk.     

Effects of adjustment of the green drachma to its current exchange rate

Between 1981 and 1988, the drachma has devalued by 62.5% against the ECU. Until mid-1985 any devaluation of the drachma was followed by a corresponding devaluation of the ‘green drachma‘. After that period, the green rate either remained unchanged or changed by a substantially smaller percentage, resulting in farmers' income loss and consumers' gain. The aim of this paper is to investigate the welfare effects on production/producer, consumption/consumer and budgetary flows from and to FEOGA assuming that an adjustment of the green drachma to its current exchange rate was realized. For this purpose partial analysis methodology is employed. The main findings are that, following a simultaneous adjustment of both rates, the gains to producers and in exchange flows more than make up for the corresponding consumers' losses for all products except beef.     

石油价格进入更加波动的新时期

通过对油价波动的历史原因、市场内在因素和人为因素的分析可以看出，石油市场已进入一个新时期，油价将变得更加动荡，而且在波动中呈上升趋势。预计新的平均价位大体为每桶20美元。为此，石油公司应积极研究贸易策略，一方面设法使自身免受损失，另一方面还要寻求从价格波动中赢利。只有准备充分，才能够抗御油价的剧烈波动和周期性变化，进而获得生存与发展。     

Speculative attack against the Hungarian forint

In mid-January 2003 a severe speculative attack was launched against the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint. The attack was very unusual in the history of foreign exchange speculations, since it was aimed at enforcing the appreciation — and not the depreciation — of the currency targeted. The specific nature of this kind of speculation is closely related to Hungary’s accession to the European Union in general and to EMU in particular. Since the other Central and Eastern European acceding countries face similar problems and challenges, the Hungarian experience may involve some instructive lessons on monetary and economic policy for them too.     

Costs and benefits of EU enlargement

While the political benefits of the coming EU enlargement are relatively easy to identify, its economic and financial consequences are less unequivocal. The following article examines the likely costs and benefits of enlargement to both existing and future Members, and in particular how it will affect Germany, one of the few present EU Member States which has direct borders with acceding states. The article expresses the personal opinions of the author.