Forward-Looking Disclosures,Financial Verifiability and Analysts' Forecasts: A Study of Cross-Listed European Firms

Forward-looking disclosures are a crucial source of information when valuing a company. We study the effect of forward-looking disclosures on analysts' forecast properties, in particular accuracy and dispersion. Our sample includes all the non-financial firms from Italy, Germany, France and Switzerland that in year 2002 were cross-listed on local stock exchanges and on the New York Stock Exchange. We conduct a content analysis on the Annual Report and the 20F form of these companies for the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. We differentiate between forward-looking information on the basis of the disclosure of expected effects on future financial performance and the disclosure of a measure of this impact. We define forward-looking information disclosed with the characteristics of being quantified and directed (and financial) as financially verifiable as it facilitates the comparison with its subsequent realisation in relation to expected future financial performance. Our analysis finds support for the theoretical prediction that verifiable disclosures are more effective than unverifiable disclosures at improving accuracy and reducing dispersion of analysts' forecasts. Our sample also allows us to explore the effects of the difference between the degrees of verifiability between forward-looking disclosures of the 20F form versus those of the domestic annual report. Our analysis provides empirical support for the hypotheses that these differences are significant and have a significant effect on forecast properties.     

A cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of apremilast in patients with psoriasis in the Italian setting

Abstract

Aims: The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis, as well as a budget impact analysis, on the use of apremilast for the treatment of adult patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (defined as a psoriasis area severity index [PASI]?≥?10), who failed to respond to, had a contraindication to, or were intolerant to other systemic therapies, within the Italian National Health Service (NHS).

Materials and methods: A Markov state-transition cohort model adapted to the Italian context was used to compare the costs of the currently available treatments and of the patients’ quality of life with two alternative treatment sequences, with or without apremilast as pre-biologic therapy. Moreover, a budget impact model was developed based on the population of patients treated for psoriasis in Italy, who would be eligible for treatment with apremilast.

Results: Over 5?years, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the strategy of using apremilast before biologic therapy was dominant compared with the sequence of biologic treatments without apremilast. In addition, it is important to underline that the use of apremilast slightly increases the quality-adjusted life years gained over 5?years. Furthermore, within the budget impact analysis, the strategy including apremilast would lead to a saving of €16 million within 3?years. Savings would mainly be related to a reduction in pharmaceutical spending, hospital admissions and other drug administration-related costs.

Conclusion: These models proved to be robust to variation in parameters and it suggested that the use of apremilast would lead to savings to the Italian healthcare system with potential benefits in terms of patients’ quality of life.     

Product Differentiation by Competing Vertical Hierarchies

We revisit the choice of product differentiation in the Hotelling model, by assuming that competing firms are vertically separated, and that retailers choose products' characteristics. The “principle of differentiation” does not hold because retailers with private information about their marginal costs produce less differentiated products in order to increase their information rents. Hence, information asymmetry within vertical hierarchies may increase social welfare by inducing them to sell products that appeal to a larger number of consumers. We show that the socially optimal level of transparency between manufacturers and retailers depends on the weight assigned to consumers' surplus and trades off two effects: higher transparency reduces price distortion but induces retailers to produce excessively similar products.     

Candidates’ Education and Turnout: Evidence from Italian Municipal Elections

We analyze the impact that the educational level of candidates running for the position of mayor has on electoral turnout by using a large dataset for Italian municipal elections held between 1993 and 2011. We firstly estimate a municipality fixed effects model and show that the median education of candidates standing in an election is positively correlated with turnout. To handle endogeneity issues arising from the unobservable time variant features of electoral races, we build on the literature which shows that politicians’ educational level is positively affected by their wage and apply a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design on the basis of the fact that the wages of mayors in Italy increase non‐monotonically at different thresholds. Results show that an exogenous increase in the median educational level of candidates, induced by a higher wage, leads to an increase in turnout of about 1 percentage point.     

Patent citations reexamined

Many studies rely on patent citations to measure intellectual heritage and impact. In this article, we show that the nature of patent citations has changed dramatically in recent years. Today, a small minority of patent applications are generating a large majority of patent citations, and the mean technological similarity between citing and cited patents has fallen considerably. We replicate several well-known studies in industrial organization and innovation economics and demonstrate how generalized assumptions about the nature of patent citations have misled the field.     

DYNAMICS OF PRODUCTIVITY AND COST OF LABOUR IN ITALIAN MANUFACTURING FIRMS

This paper studies the impact of size on labour cost and productivity for Italian manufacturing firms. The distributions of both labour cost and productivity display a wide support, even when disaggregated by sector of industrial activity. Further, both labour cost and productivity, when considered alone, are growing with the size of the firm. We investigate this relationship on a new set of data and we are able to show that once productivity differences among firms have been accounted for, size still retains a positive effect on cost of labour in most of the sectors considered.     

International Trade and Unemployment—the Worker‐selection Effect

This paper investigates the labor market effects of trade liberalization. We incorporate trade unions and heterogeneous workers into the Melitz framework. Workers differ with respect to their abilities. Our main findings are: (i) trade liberalization harms low‐ability workers, they lose their job and switch to long‐term unemployment (worker‐selection effect); (ii) high‐ability workers are better off in terms of both higher wages and higher employment; (iii) if a country is endowed with a large fraction of low‐ability workers, trade liberalization leads to a rise in aggregate unemployment—in this case, trade liberalization may harm a country's welfare; (iv) the overall employment and welfare effect crucially hinges on the characteristics of the wage bargain.     

Entropy martingale optimal transport and nonlinear pricing–hedging duality

The objective of this paper is to develop a duality between a novel entropy martingale optimal transport (EMOT) problem and an associated optimisation problem. In EMOT, we follow the approach taken in the entropy optimal transport (EOT) problem developed in Liero et al. (Invent. Math. 211:969–1117, 2018), but we add the constraint, typical of martingale optimal transport (MOT) theory, that the infimum of the cost functional is taken over martingale probability measures. In the associated problem, the objective functional, related via Fenchel conjugacy to the entropic term in EMOT, is no longer linear as in (martingale) optimal transport. This leads to a novel optimisation problem which also has a clear financial interpretation as a nonlinear subhedging problem. Our theory allows us to establish a nonlinear robust pricing–hedging duality which also covers a wide range of known robust results. We also focus on Wasserstein-induced penalisations and study how the duality is affected by variations in the penalty terms, with a special focus on the convergence of EMOT to the extreme case of MOT.

     

Local volatility under rough volatility

Several asymptotic results for the implied volatility generated by a rough volatility model have been obtained in recent years (notably in the small-maturity regime), providing a better understanding of the shapes of the volatility surface induced by rough volatility models, supporting their calibration power to SP500 option data. Rough volatility models also generate a local volatility surface, via the so-called Markovian projection of the stochastic volatility. We complement the existing results on implied volatility by studying the asymptotic behavior of the local volatility surface generated by a class of rough stochastic volatility models, encompassing the rough Bergomi model. Notably, we observe that the celebrated “1/2 skew rule” linking the short-term at-the-money skew of the implied volatility to the short-term at-the-money skew of the local volatility, a consequence of the celebrated “harmonic mean formula” of [Berestycki et al. (2002). Quantitative Finance, 2, 61–69], is replaced by a new rule: the ratio of the at-the-money implied and local volatility skews tends to the constant $1/(H+3/2)$ (as opposed to the constant 1/2), where H is the regularity index of the underlying instantaneous volatility process.