ON THE EMERGENCE OF TOYBOYS: THE TIMING OF MARRIAGE WITH AGING AND UNCERTAIN CAREERS*

We explore how gender bias in career opportunities affects matching in a marriage market with search frictions and where an individual’s fitness decays with age. We document a “being left on the shelf” effect where young singles, who find the marriage market rapidly thins with age, rush into early partnership. Singles with stronger career opportunities, however, have a greater option value to defer marriage. More equal career opportunities for women (captured by greater schooling and better occupations) potentially explain the recent emergence of toyboy unions, in which the woman is at least 5 years older than her partner.     

Political disagreement in the classroom: testing cultural theory through structured observation

The cultural theory pioneered by Dame Mary Douglas has been tested with a range of research methods, but it has not yet been made subject to a ‘structured observation’. This method has been developed in psychology and management studies, and is especially useful for testing cultural theory’s prediction that fatalistic, hierarchical, egalitarian, and individualistic ways of perceiving and justifying tend to emerge in group debates about pressing social and environmental issues. We present the results of a structured observation of this prediction. Groups of high school students (aged 17–19) were asked for their opinions concerning three to five ‘wicked’ (i.e., highly complex) problems, and to discuss how to resolve them. Each utterance was coded according to the rationalities proposed by cultural theory. The results confirm cultural theory’s hypothesis that all four specific ways of defining, perceiving and resolving a wicked problem emerge when a number of people debate such an issue. We also discuss how Douglas’ cultural theory can be further developed and tested. Finally, we use our study to outline how the method of structured observation can contribute to political culture research in general.     

Expected benefits and perceived risks of cloud computing: an investigation within an Italian setting

Over the past several years, cloud computing has increasingly been regarded as able to improve efficiency within organisations. The aim of this study is to address under-investigated issues related to the implementation of cloud computing, with a particular focus on expected benefits and the perception of risks. Towards this aim, on the basis of an adapted version of the technology acceptance model, we carried out a semi-structured survey among first-time cloud computing users to identify expected benefits and perceived risks. The survey of this study included a sample of 130 individuals in 65 enterprises located within Italy. We chose an Italian setting because it is characterised by an increasing number of programmes that emphasise the importance of cloud computing and support its wide dissemination. The findings of this study identify possible areas for improvement within the implementation phases of cloud computing.     

Realized extreme quantile: A joint model for conditional quantiles and measures of volatility with EVT refinements

We propose a new framework exploiting realized measures of volatility to estimate and forecast extreme quantiles. Our realized extreme quantile (REQ) combines quantile regression with extreme value theory and uses a measurement equation that relates the realized measure to the latent conditional quantile. Model estimation is performed by quasi maximum likelihood, and a simulation experiment validates this estimator in finite samples. An extensive empirical analysis shows that high‐frequency measures are particularly informative of the dynamic quantiles. Finally, an out‐of‐sample forecast analysis of quantile‐based risk measures confirms the merit of the REQ.     

Optimal strategy for a fund manager with option compensation

I consider the problem of portfolio optimization for a manager whose compensation is given by the sum of a constant and a variable term. The constant term is a fixed percentage of the managed funds that is payed to the manager independently of his performance. The variable term is a premium that is proportional to the profit earned by the manager over a benchmark at a certain evaluation date. I find the optimal strategy and the optimal portfolio value in the Black–Scholes setting when the benchmark is a linear combination of the risky asset and the money market account.     

Does nonagricultural labor relax farmers’ credit constraints? Evidence from longitudinal data for Vietnam

We examine the relationship between participation in nonagricultural labor activities and farming production decisions, focusing on the use of inputs. Using longitudinal data for Vietnam from 1993 to 1998, we find that households engaged in nonagricultural labor spend significantly more on seeds, services, hired labor, and livestock inputs. This is consistent with the hypothesis that nonagricultural labor income relaxes credit constraints to farming.     

Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers*

Recent empirical findings attribute a central role to the degree of economic openness to determine the size of the fiscal multiplier. See, for instance, Ilzetzki et al. (2013) [How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239–254]. However, traditional macroeconomic models have difficulties to account for this evidence. By introducing ‘deep-habit’ formation into a New Keynesian small open economy model, this paper provides a theoretical framework which is able to attest for the new empirical evidence. Deep habits give rise to counter-cyclical firm markups, which are crucial to generate effects of openness on the fiscal multiplier as found in the data. We study three dimensions of economic openness: exchange rate flexibility, trade openness, and capital mobility. In line with the empirical findings, we report a negative relationship between measures of economic openness and the fiscal multiplier.     

Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis

In this paper we apply wavelet analysis to study the dynamics of long-term movements in wholesale prices for the USA, the UK and France over the period 1791–2012. The application of wavelet analysis to long-term historical price series allows us to detect long waves in prices whose periodization is remarkably similar to those provided in the literature for the pre-World War II period. Moreover, we find evidence on the existence of long waves in prices also after World War II, a period in which long waves are generally difficult to detect because of the positive trend displayed by prices. The comparison between the long wave components extracted through wavelets and the Christiano–Fitzgerald band-pass filter suggests that wavelets provide a reliable and straightforward technique for analyzing long waves dynamics in time series exhibiting quite complex patterns such as historical data.     

INFORMATION IN THE YIELD CURVE: A MACRO‐FINANCE APPROACH

We use a macro‐finance model, incorporating macroeconomic and financial factors, to study the term premium in the US bond market. Estimating the model using Bayesian techniques, we find that a single factor explains most of the variation in bond risk premiums. Furthermore, the model‐implied risk premiums account for up to 40% of the variability of one‐ and two‐year excess returns. Using the model to decompose yield spreads into an expectations and a term premium component, we find that, although this decomposition does not seem important to forecast economic activity, it is crucial to forecast inflation for most forecasting horizons. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.