Forecasting with the almost ideal demand system: evidence from some alternative dynamic specifications

The almost ideal demand system is used as a representation of long run demands in discrete time and continuous time error correction models to produce forecasts of budget shares beyond the sample period. The estimated models are subjected to a battery of tests, and an analysis of the forecasts indicates that continuous time adjustment mechanisms, based around fully modified estimates of the long run preference parameters, provide a remarkably accurate method of forecasting budget shares.     

How a rapid modal convergence into a universal automated taxi service could be the future for local passenger transport

The world is changing rapidly. Yet a common assumption is that cars, buses, and taxis will remain the dominant local passenger transport modes in the coming decades. This concept paper draws on literature sources and on discussions with industry stakeholders to look anew at the local passenger transport sector in the light of broader societal trends to suggest an alternative future, and to offer insights to practitioners and policy-makers. The paper finds that the traditional modes of car, bus and taxi are slowly beginning to lose market share to intermediate modes such as shared taxis, lift-sharing schemes, demand-responsive transport services and car clubs whilst numerous technological and market trends are combining to accelerate this process of ‘modal convergence’. Taken together, these trends could revolutionise how we move about, with one possible outcome being the emergence of a single dominant passenger mode of an automated universal taxi system or dial-a-pod.     

Reel Geopolitics: Cinemato-graphing Political Space

Recent research has focused on the efforts of national leaders to legitimize and strengthen national identity through the construction of uncomplicated, linear national histories. Paralleling, and in some respects advancing, these efforts are initiatives aimed at staking national claims to particular territories. These claims are the product of 'regimes of territorial legitimation' that reflect the norms of the modern state system. They are fundamentally influenced by two geographic circumstances: the political-territorial status of states at the time of entry into the modern state system and prevailing ideas about the cultural-historical character of state territory. A comparative framework focused on the intersection of these two circumstances provides insights into some basic features of national senses of territory as articulated by those in power within existing states.     

Another Look at Effects of “Adults-Only” Age Restrictions on Housing Prices

This study reexamines the price effects of age restrictions on housing prices. Our data cover a period when the housing market is taking a steep downturn. We argue that, when housing prices are falling, seniors are more likely to avoid investing in housing for at least two reasons. First, seniors are relatively more sensitive to their immediate equity loss than younger homeowners, mainly due to the limited remaining lifetime over which they can afford to wait; second, age-restriction acts as a luxury good, with seniors not willing to pay for reduction in neighborhood uncertainty, eliminating buyer demand for this segment of the population. If this “larger demand loss” outweighs the positive externality of the reduction in neighborhood uncertainty during the market downturn, we would observe that age-restrictions reduce property values. Using data from Broward County, Florida for the years of 2005–2007, we find a significant discount in residential condominium prices due to age-restrictions. In particular, we find that imposing age-restriction on properties decreases housing prices by 17.9% during the period May 2005 to April 2006, while the discount is worse, 22.7%, during the later period May 2006 to May 2007.     

Assessing causal inference problems with Bayesian process tracing: the economic effects of proportional representation and the problem of endogeneity

ABSTRACT

In recent years, causal process tracing is becoming increasingly formalised as scholars have begun to follow Bayesian logic and thereby manage to combine the interpretative and contextual nuance of older forms of process tracing with the inferential rigours of Bayesian analysis. This paper illustrates the basic logic of Bayesian process tracing by drawing on the political economy literature that studies the social policy and economic effects of electoral systems. It compares and contrasts how each approach deals with the problem of endogeneity.     

Skills in South Africa: The journey towards credible planning

ABSTRACT

Since 1994 the state has instituted active labour market policies to redress the apartheid skills legacy. The skills planning challenge continues to be how to coordinate efforts for the provision of the right skills to support inclusive economic growth, ensuring an alignment is achieved between what is required in the labour market and the supply from the education and training system. This article traces the South African journey of skills planning from late apartheid until the current time period in 2014 through a historical analysis of the political economy. The analysis reflects on the relationship between state formation in South Africa and the role of the state in directing skills development, and in the more recent period how skills planning responds to both the demands of the economy and ameliorating the historical legacies of education and skills exclusion.     

A Note on the Incremental Validity of Integrity Tests beyond Standard Personality Inventories for the Criterion of Counterproductive Behaviour

Although the validity of integrity tests for predicting the focal criterion of counterproductive work behaviour (CWB) is well‐established, little research has yet addressed the incremental CWB‐related validity of integrity tests beyond basic personality traits. The present research addresses this issue by re‐analyzing data adopted from Marcus, Lee, and Ashton (2007), in which four different overt and personality‐based integrity tests and the HEXACO‐Personality Inventory (Lee & Ashton, 2004) were related to CWB. Integrity accounted for practically significant proportions of incremental variance beyond personality across all integrity tests, yet effect sizes of incremental validity dropped considerably if Honesty‐Humility was added to traditional Big Five dimensions. In addition, findings suggest that CWB is best predicted by a combination of integrity and personality tests. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Employee Reactions to Leader-Initiated Crisis Preparation: Core Dimensions

Crisis prevention plans are usually evaluated based on their effects in terms of preventing or limiting organizational crisis. In this survey-based study, the focus was instead on how such plans influence employees’ reactions in terms of risk perception and well-being. Five different organizations were addressed in the study. Hypothesis 1 tested the assumption that leadership crisis preparation would lead to lower perceived risk among the employees. Hypothesis 2 tested the conjecture that it would also lead to a higher degree of well-being. Both hypotheses were supported. The results and their implications are discussed.