DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY: ROBUST RULES IN MONETARY POLICY

We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first, Gul's approach of ‘disappointment’ aversion to describe policy makers' aversion to uncertainty and then define the properties the notion of ‘robustness’ entails. With these two tools we then link the desirability of such robust rules to the degree of policy makers' aversion to uncertainty. We thus show that provided such robust rules exist, a larger degree of disappointment aversion leads to a greater emphasis on robustness in policy implementation.     

Case statement: blueprint for fund raising success

The case statement is the primary document upon which an organization bases its appeal for financial and philosophical support. This author points out how a well-constructed case statement can impact on fund raising success.     

非正规经济中的女性权益保护

非正规经济作为与正规经济相对的概念,同样是整体经济的重要组成部分,并且是一种长期存在的经济活动.在我国转型时期,非正规经济处于增长态势,而在非正规经济中就业的人中,女性占有很大比例,她们所面临的主要困境是生存权利、劳动权利、社会保障权利易受到侵犯,因此,有必要通过修订相关法律、加强执法监督、完善司法救济程序等措施使女性得到相应救济,改善其生存和劳动条件,促进社会的可持续发展.     

Cost effectiveness of benralizumab for severe,uncontrolled oral corticosteroid–dependent asthma in Sweden

Abstract

Aim: We investigated cost effectiveness of benralizumab vs. standard of care (SOC) plus oral corticosteroids (OCS) for patients with severe, eosinophilic OCS-dependent asthma in Sweden.

Materials and methods: A three-state, cohort-based Markov model of data from three Phase III benralizumab clinical trials (ZONDA [NCT02075255], SIROCCO [NCT01928771], and CALIMA [NCT01914757]) was used to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of benralizumab vs. SOC plus OCS. Health outcomes were estimated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The model included costs and disutilities associated with extrapolated OCS-related adverse events. Patients with severe asthma were defined as those receiving OCS ≥5?mg/day.

Results: Benralizumab demonstrated a cost-effectiveness ratio vs. SOC plus OCS of 2018 Swedish Kronor (SEK) 366,855 (€34,127) per QALY gained, based on increases of 1.33 QALYs and SEK 488,742 (€45,344) per patient. Benralizumab treatment costs contributed most to incremental costs. The probability of benralizumab’s being cost-effective with willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds between SEK 429,972 (€40,000) and SEK 752,452 (€70,000) ranged from 75% to 99%.

Limitations: Potential limitations of these analyses include the use of combined data from three different clinical trials, a one-way sensitivity analysis that did not include mortality and transition estimates, and Observational & Pragmatic Research Institute (OPRI) data from the UK as a proxy of the Swedish health care system.

Conclusions: The results of these analyses demonstrate that benralizumab has a high probability of being cost-effective compared with SOC plus OCS for a subgroup of patients with severe, eosinophilic asthma receiving regular OCS treatment and may support clinicians, payers and patients in making treatment decisions.     

江西经济形势分析与展望

进入新世纪以来，继2003年江西经济发展呈现一些转折性变化之后，2004年又显现一些阶段性特征。2004年，江西主经济指标提前一年完成“十五”计划，工业化进入中期阶段，人均生产总值预计达到1千美元，国民经济呈现既快又好的良好发展态势。展望2005年，在国际、国内环境总体趋好的大背景下，江西有可能在新的起点上实现更快更好的发展。     

Financial Flows to Eastern Europe: Determinants,Volatility and Sustainability Issues

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Default Risk in Equity Returns

This is the first study that uses Merton's (1974) option pricing model to compute default measures for individual firms and assess the effect of default risk on equity returns. The size effect is a default effect, and this is also largely true for the book‐to‐market (BM) effect. Both exist only in segments of the market with high default risk. Default risk is systematic risk. The Fama–French (FF) factors SMB and HML contain some default‐related information, but this is not the main reason that the FF model can explain the cross section of equity returns.