为都市儿童留出玩乐空间

近来，中心城市儿童在公共空间受到伤亡的报道越来越多。据北京的一次调查表明，“坠楼”是儿童受伤的主要原因，数量甚至多于交通事故。其原由是学校、公园、住宅小区关闭了玩乐场所，交通和停车把儿童从原本属于他们的玩乐空间挤压出去。     

On the stability of value added indicators

This paper shows how relevant concepts in educational effectiveness can support public policy in order to improve the performance of educational systems. Specifically, value-added indicators and the property of their stability over time is addressed with reference to application to school/teacher improvement. Findings of a longitudinal study developed in Portugal concerning primary education in mathematics are presented. Variance component models are fitted in order to obtain those indicators yearly to class-school units. Results of this study reveal that value-added indicators can be a useful instrument for progressive improvement in education, particularly in countries with high rates of student retention and evasion. The novelty of this paper is to measure value added over a single year rather than all stage of schooling that refers to more than 1 year.     

Short- and long-run heterogeneous investment dynamics

In this paper, we model the dynamics of business investment taking into account asset-specific characteristics potentially affecting the reactivity of aggregate and disaggregate capital accumulation over the business cycle. We estimate Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and traditional investment (non-ICT) determinants within a Vector Error Correction Model testing the assumptions of the flexible accelerator and neoclassical model as well as the role of financial constraints and uncertainty. We evaluate our model on Italian data over the period 1980–2012, and we check our results also with Spanish and UK data. Our findings support the assumption that capital is heterogeneous since short- and long-run determinants are significantly different across the assets. Traditional assets experience stock adjustment costs while ICT investment incurs flow adjustment cost. In the short run, liquidity is a key determinant of investment independently of the asset type. In the long run, uncertainty significantly affects ICT. Finally, the results of the counterfactual exercises support the idea that ICT is a key policy variable to foster economic growth.     

Integrated bio-economic models as tools to support land-use decision making: a review of potential and limitations

Bio-economic modelling has become a useful tool for anticipating the outcomes of policies and technologies before their implementation. Advances in mathematical programming have made it possible to build more comprehensive models. In an overview of recent studies about bio-economic models applied to land-use problems in agriculture and forestry, we evaluated how aspects such as uncertainty, multiple objective functions, system dynamics and time have been incorporated into models. We found that single objective models were more frequently applied at the farm level, while multiple objective modelling has been applied to meet concerns at the landscape level. Among the objectives, social aspects are seldom represented in all models, when being compared to economic and environmental aspects. The integration of uncertainty is occasionally a topic, while stochastic approaches are more frequently applied than non-stochastic robust methods. Most multiple-objective models do not integrate uncertainty or sequential decision making. Static approaches continue to be more recurrent than truly dynamic models. Even though integrating multiple aspects may enhance our understanding of a system; it involves a tradeoff between complexity and robustness of the results obtained. Land-use models have to address this balance between complexity and robustness in order to evolve towards robust multiple-objective spatial optimization as a prerequisite to achieve sustainability goals.     

Macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns: the case of Korea

This study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables, including stock market returns in Korea, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We suggest a three-variable SVAR model incorporating inflation, output growth and stock returns. We adopt a nonzero z-ratio restriction for the long-run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables. While our results support the negative (positive) relation of demand (supply) shocks to stock returns, we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do. The sub-period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on Korean stock market performance. We also examine a generalized five-variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate, confirming the results from the three-variable case.     

Linking product modularity and innovativeness to supply chain management in the Italian furniture industry

Much of the literature on modularity assumes that firms with modular products adopt modular organization. In the realm of supply chain management, no consensus has been reached on the effects of product modularity on supply chains (SC). This paper investigates whether SC choices depend on product modularity and innovativeness, and how SC choices can be aligned to these product features to maximize performance. A medium scale survey has been performed in the Italian furniture industry. By means of factor and cluster analyses, the SC of firms that introduced products with different levels of modularity and innovativeness have been compared. The results show that both product features must be considered when designing the SC.     

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY: ROBUST RULES IN MONETARY POLICY

We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first, Gul's approach of ‘disappointment’ aversion to describe policy makers' aversion to uncertainty and then define the properties the notion of ‘robustness’ entails. With these two tools we then link the desirability of such robust rules to the degree of policy makers' aversion to uncertainty. We thus show that provided such robust rules exist, a larger degree of disappointment aversion leads to a greater emphasis on robustness in policy implementation.     

Identifying the scope effect on a meta-analysis of biodiversity valuation studies

Insensitivity to scope is an issue of much debate in contingent valuation (CV) even today. Although the literature about insensitivity to scope is abundant, the reasons for it are not yet well known. Through a meta-analysis of CV studies of biodiversity, the treatment of the different possible measures of the quantity of the good is explored in relation to scope sensitivity. Overall, the findings suggest that CV results are sensitive to the amount of the good being valued, although the result depends on how the environmental change is measured. Results support the use of absolute sizes when conducting CV studies.