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11.
We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first, Gul's approach of ‘disappointment’ aversion to describe policy makers' aversion to uncertainty and then define the properties the notion of ‘robustness’ entails. With these two tools we then link the desirability of such robust rules to the degree of policy makers' aversion to uncertainty. We thus show that provided such robust rules exist, a larger degree of disappointment aversion leads to a greater emphasis on robustness in policy implementation. 相似文献
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Europe and global imbalances 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
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Maria Andersson Christer Janson Thomas Kristensen Agota Szende Sarowar Golam 《Journal of medical economics》2020,23(8):877-884
AbstractAim: We investigated cost effectiveness of benralizumab vs. standard of care (SOC) plus oral corticosteroids (OCS) for patients with severe, eosinophilic OCS-dependent asthma in Sweden.Materials and methods: A three-state, cohort-based Markov model of data from three Phase III benralizumab clinical trials (ZONDA [NCT02075255], SIROCCO [NCT01928771], and CALIMA [NCT01914757]) was used to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of benralizumab vs. SOC plus OCS. Health outcomes were estimated in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The model included costs and disutilities associated with extrapolated OCS-related adverse events. Patients with severe asthma were defined as those receiving OCS ≥5?mg/day.Results: Benralizumab demonstrated a cost-effectiveness ratio vs. SOC plus OCS of 2018 Swedish Kronor (SEK) 366,855 (€34,127) per QALY gained, based on increases of 1.33 QALYs and SEK 488,742 (€45,344) per patient. Benralizumab treatment costs contributed most to incremental costs. The probability of benralizumab’s being cost-effective with willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds between SEK 429,972 (€40,000) and SEK 752,452 (€70,000) ranged from 75% to 99%.Limitations: Potential limitations of these analyses include the use of combined data from three different clinical trials, a one-way sensitivity analysis that did not include mortality and transition estimates, and Observational & Pragmatic Research Institute (OPRI) data from the UK as a proxy of the Swedish health care system.Conclusions: The results of these analyses demonstrate that benralizumab has a high probability of being cost-effective compared with SOC plus OCS for a subgroup of patients with severe, eosinophilic asthma receiving regular OCS treatment and may support clinicians, payers and patients in making treatment decisions. 相似文献
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Fischbach Mireille Scattaglia Maria 《MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies》1997,7(3):67-99
MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies - 相似文献
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Default Risk in Equity Returns 总被引:17,自引:0,他引:17
This is the first study that uses Merton's (1974) option pricing model to compute default measures for individual firms and assess the effect of default risk on equity returns. The size effect is a default effect, and this is also largely true for the book‐to‐market (BM) effect. Both exist only in segments of the market with high default risk. Default risk is systematic risk. The Fama–French (FF) factors SMB and HML contain some default‐related information, but this is not the main reason that the FF model can explain the cross section of equity returns. 相似文献
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How past becomes prologue: a sensemaking interpretation of the hindsight-foresight relationship given the circumstances of crisis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Maria L Nathan 《Futures》2004,36(2):181-199
Foresight is rooted in deep understanding [A.N. Whitehead. Lecture notes from address to the Harvard Business School, 1931]. Such understanding requires that we shall have first looked back to the past before venturing forward into the future. This paper uses Weick’s and colleagues’ sense making perspective in order to explore this critical relationship between the past and the future [[2], [3], [4], [5], [6] and [7]]. In particular, key sense making properties will be applied to a crisis, an occurrence of school-place violence that occurred in the United States in 1999. We shall then ask how this organization and its diverse external stakeholders used their understanding of this event to learn how to prevent such crises from occurring in the future. In other words, how capably was hindsight constructed and then how was it used to strengthen foresight into the future? This paper will conduct a theory-based empirical examination of a crisis event and its aftermath to understand how hindsight can be sharpened and then used to improve organizational foresight. 相似文献
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Quality & Quantity - Compositional data with a tridimensional structure are not uncommon in social sciences. The CANDECOMP/PARAFAC model is one of the most adequate techniques for modeling... 相似文献
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Brand managers strive to achieve an outstanding position in the psyche of the user by differentiating the product and service. In order to do so, brands are now often promoted by communications that focus on a trivial attribute difference. The current study tests both how the use of such an irrelevant attribute affects the perceptions of the consumer and how they rate the brand when the irrelevance of the attribute is previously revealed. The results of a controlled experiment (n = 894) show that the use of irrelevant attributes generally has a positive effect on buying behavior and that this effect is obtained even when the actual irrelevance is previously proven to the consumer. Further, the results are consistent across a variety of outcome variables, including attention, perceived uniqueness, price fairness, attitude toward the brand, and intention to buy the brand. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 相似文献