Productivity measurement for a distribution firm

The paper derives a consistent accounting framework for the treatment of inventories when measuring the productivity of a distribution firm. The average purchase price of an inventory item during an accounting period must be distinguished from its average selling price and these two average prices should be distinguished from the corresponding balance sheet prices. The accounting framework is implemented for a distribution firm which sold 76,000 separate items. The firm achieved a 9.6 percent per quarter total factor productivity growth rate over 6 quarters.The first author is a Professor of Economics at the University of British Columbia and a research associate of the NBER. He thanks the SSHRC of Canada for research support. The second author is a recent graduate of the University of British Columbia.     

Seasonality in industry specific indices

This study examines seaonality in three industry specific stock market indices; the Standard and Poor's (S&P) 20 Transportation, the S&P 40 Utilities, and the S&P 40 Financial. The results support the existence of a weekend effect in the transportation index. There is no evidence of a weekend effect in the utilities and financial indices. Both the transportation and financial indices exhibit the January effect. The utilities index, however, shows no evidence of a January effect. The finding of a weekend and a January effect at the industry level is significant because select mutual funds enhance the ability of investors to capitalize on such anomalies.     

A random coefficient autoregressive Markov regime switching model for dynamic futures hedging

The random coefficient autoregressive Markov regime switching model (RCARRS) for estimating optimal hedge ratios, which generalizes the random coefficient autoregressive (RCAR) and Markov regime switching (MRS) models, is introduced. RCARRS, RCAR, MRS, BEKK‐GARCH, CC‐GARCH, and OLS are compared with the use of aluminum and lead futures data. RCARRS outperforms all models out‐of‐sample for lead and is second only to BEKK‐GARCH for aluminum in terms of variancereduction point estimates. White's data‐snooping reality check null hypothesis of no superiority is rejected for BEKK‐GARCH and RCARRS for aluminum, but not for lead. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:103–129, 2006     

Improving lattice schemes through bias reduction

Lattice schemes for option pricing, such as tree or grid/partial differential equation (p.d.e.) methods, are usually designed as a discrete version of an underlying continuous model of stock prices. The parameters of such schemes are chosen so that the discrete version “best” matches the continuous one. Only in the limit does the lattice option price model converge to the continuous one. Otherwise, a discretization bias remains. A simple modification of lattice schemes which reduces the discretization bias is proposed. The modification can, in theory, be applied to any lattice scheme. The main idea is to adjust the lattice parameters in such a way that the option price bias, not the stock price bias, is minimized. European options are used, for which the option price bias can be evaluated precisely, as a template to modify and improve American option methods. A numerical study is provided. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:733–757, 2006     

Comecon, trade and the west :

This is a modified version of a paper presented to the ‘Seminario Internacional sobre Tecnología para el Pequeño Agricultor’, held under the auspices of the IICA-lnstituto Interamericano de Ciências Agrícolas da OEA, Asuncion, Paraguay, 2–6 May 1977. The author wishes to thank Denisard C.O. Alves and Fernando B. Homem de Mello for their constructive comments.     

Subsistence agriculture and technological options

This is a modified version of a paper presented to the ‘Seminario Internacional sobre Tecnología para el Pequeño Agricultor’, held under the auspices of the IICA-lnstituto Interamericano de Ciências Agrícolas da OEA, Asuncion, Paraguay, 2–6 May 1977. The author wishes to thank Denisard C.O. Alves and Fernando B. Homem de Mello for their constructive comments.     

Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract. Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the US are found to share some common long‐term and short‐term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger‐caused by the other two economies, local factors account for a large proportion of output growth variability and uncertainty. On the transmission mechanism, the selected trade and financial variables have incremental explanatory power but do not lessen the ability of lagged output variables to explain Hong Kong growth dynamics. Interestingly, the US does not appear to exert undue influences on Hong Kong.