The courage to choose! Primogeniture and leadership succession in family firms

Research Summary : Building on a unique data set with information on the nuclear structure of entrepreneurial families, we integrate leadership succession into a socioemotional wealth (SEW) logic to test the antecedents and consequences of primogeniture vis‐à‐vis second‐ or subsequent‐born selection in family firm succession. Our findings suggest that appointing a family firstborn sibling is more likely when there is a high degree of SEW endowment and the family firm has pre‐succession performance below aspiration levels. Next, we find that appointing a second‐ or subsequent‐born sibling has a positive and significant effect on post‐succession firm profitability, particularly when the firm is in its second generation or later. Managerial Summary : What drives succession choices in family firms? What are the performance implications of each succession choice? These are questions of vital relevance for every business owner. Focusing on the pool of potential family heirs at the time of succession, our study adds to the debate on the drivers of succession choices by suggesting that having a family intensive governance structure fosters primogeniture as the main succession logic, even when the family firm is experiencing lower profitability. Our study informs business owners on the implications of different succession policies, suggesting that family firms that have the courage to disregard primogeniture and choose more wisely the family successor are also the ones experiencing higher post‐succession performance.     

Which Vested Interests Do Central Banks Really Serve? Understanding Central Bank Policy Since the Global Financial Crisis

Inspired by Thorstein Veblen’s ideas, I analyze the behavior of central banks from the perspective of how institutions are captured by vested interests. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, there has been a shift in the conduct of monetary policy. Much like the behavior of asset holders themselves, who, in times of crisis, sought to trade off lower returns with more stable asset values, monetary policy changed from a de facto policy of stabilizing rentier income to one of preserving asset prices or rentier wealth. I analyze this particularly through the lenses of what happened with quantitative easing (QE) in the US, which coincided with a collapse of real interest rates, while asset prices were stabilized. This can also be seen in the way the banking sector was supported by QE where the market for mortgage-backed securities was sustained even as it actually meant a lower profitability for the overall U.S. banking sector during the QE interventions.     

Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage

This article analyzes announcement effects of the new statutory minimum wage on employment expectations and uncertainties in Germany. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach applied to the IAB Establishment Panel, employers affected by the minimum wage show an increased employment uncertainty and a 0.9% points drop in their expected employment growth. Using the same identification strategy with data from 2015, the treatment effect on actual employment growth of affected employers matches the employers' expectation. Hence, an analysis of employer expectations seems to be promising to detect employment effects of policy changes before they come into force.     

Electoral Competition as a Determinant of Fiscal Decentralisation*

This paper estimates the effect of government electoral strength on fiscal decentralisation. Using a panel of democracies, we find that greater government electoral strength at the central level, measured by the share of seats held by the governing party in the legislature, reduces expenditure centralisation. Revenue centralisation is less affected by electoral strength.     

Markov decision processes under model uncertainty

We introduce a general framework for Markov decision problems under model uncertainty in a discrete-time infinite horizon setting. By providing a dynamic programming principle, we obtain a local-to-global paradigm, namely solving a local, that is, a one time-step robust optimization problem leads to an optimizer of the global (i.e., infinite time-steps) robust stochastic optimal control problem, as well as to a corresponding worst-case measure. Moreover, we apply this framework to portfolio optimization involving data of the . We present two different types of ambiguity sets; one is fully data-driven given by a Wasserstein-ball around the empirical measure, the second one is described by a parametric set of multivariate normal distributions, where the corresponding uncertainty sets of the parameters are estimated from the data. It turns out that in scenarios where the market is volatile or bearish, the optimal portfolio strategies from the corresponding robust optimization problem outperforms the ones without model uncertainty, showcasing the importance of taking model uncertainty into account.     

Optimal insurance under maxmin expected utility

We examine a problem of demand for insurance indemnification, when the insured is sensitive to ambiguity and behaves according to the maxmin expected utility model of Gilboa and Schmeidler (J. Math. Econ. 18:141–153, 1989), whereas the insurer is a (risk-averse or risk-neutral) expected-utility maximiser. We characterise optimal indemnity functions both with and without the customary ex ante no-sabotage requirement on feasible indemnities, and for both concave and linear utility functions for the two agents. This allows us to provide a unifying framework in which we examine the effects of the no-sabotage condition, of marginal utility of wealth, of belief heterogeneity, as well as of ambiguity (multiplicity of priors) on the structure of optimal indemnity functions. In particular, we show how a singularity in beliefs leads to an optimal indemnity function that involves full insurance on an event to which the insurer assigns zero probability, while the decision maker assigns a positive probability. We examine several illustrative examples, and we provide numerical studies for the case of a Wasserstein and a Rényi ambiguity set.