The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of the diversion of migration flows away from Germany towards the UK in the course of the EU's Eastern Enlargement. The EU has agreed transitional periods for the free movement of workers with the new member states from Central and Eastern Europe. The selective application of migration restrictions during the transitional periods has resulted in a reversal of the pre-enlargement allocation of migration flows from the new member states across the EU. Based on a forecast of the migration potential under the conditions of free movement and of the transitional arrangements, we employ a CGE model with imperfect labour markets to analyse the macroeconomic effects of this diversion process. We find that EU Eastern enlargement has increased in the GDP per capita in the UK substantially, but that the diversion of migration flows towards the UK has reduced wage gains and the decline in unemployment there. The effects of the EU Eastern enlargement are less favourable for Germany, but the diversion of migration flows has protected workers there against a detrimental impact on wages and unemployment.     

Productivity change and the effects of policy reform in China's agriculture since 1979

During China's rural reforms, policies were frequently adjusted. Most policies favoured the continuation and deepening of reform; but some were contradictory or even led to regression in the reform process. How have the rural reforms affected China's agricultural production over the past three decades; and what lessons can be learned to aid the future course of reform? To answer these questions, this study estimates productivity change in China's agriculture and evaluates the effects of policy on agricultural output during the reform period. Aggregated provincial‐level data for the 1979–2008 period are used in a translog production frontier model to estimate indices of total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components—technical change, technical efficiency change, and a scale effect—with a focus on explaining the variation in technical efficiency. The estimation results show that the impressive improvement of TFP change is dominated by the technical change component. However, technical efficiency change and scale effects have worked against the improvement in TFP change in most periods. To improve technical efficiency, social welfare policies designed to eliminate the rural–urban divide, and reform polices focusing on factor market reforms, such as reform of the household registration system (hukou) and reform of land rights, seem to hold some potential.     

Network Support and the Success of Newly Founded Business

The "network approach to entrepreneurship" is a prominent theoretical perspective within the literature on entrepreneurship. This literature assumes that network resources, networking activities and network support are heavily used to establish new firms (network founding hypothesis). Further, those entrepreneurs, who can refer to a broad and diverse social network and who receive much support from their network are more successful (network success hypothesis). Based on a study of 1,700 new business ventures in Upper Bavaria (Germany), the article gives an empirical test of the network success hypothesis. It is argued that one reason, why previous studies did not consistently find positive network effects, may be that social capital (network support) is used to compensate shortfalls of other types of capital (human capital and financial capital). This compensation hypothesis, however, does not find empirical confirmation. On the other hand, however, the network success hypothesis proves to be valid in our analyses, i.e. network support increases the probability of survival and growth of newly founded businesses.     

Konjunkturschlaglicht: Ungarn vor Herausforderungen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Fortgesetzter Aufschwung bei weltwirtschaftlichen Risiken

Der konjunkturelle Aufschwung setzt sich weltweit und auch in Deutschland fort. Wie hat sich die Immobilienkrise in den USA ausgewirkt? Welche Zins- und welche Rohstoffpreisentwicklung wird erwartet? Mit welchen Wachstumsraten wird in Deutschland gerechnet und welche Effekte hatte die Mehrwertsteuererh?hung? Wie wird sich die Situation auf dem Arbeitsmarkt entwickeln?     

Europe's Leading Cities – Success Factors and Policy Perspectives

In Europe, economic activity is concentrated more and more in the major urban centres. At the same time, these cities are in a competition with one another. Across Europe they are contending for investors and qualified workers and searching for the most successful path to a dynamic economic future. Which cities in Europe have made the greatest economic progress in the past? What are the factors that have made some cities more successful than others? And what action can cities take to achieve greater economic growth in the future?     

Kleine Schritte auf einem langen Weg

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

EU enlargement and governance of the Common Agricultural Policy

The requirements for the implementation, administration and control of the application of the current CAP are much higher than they were 15 years ago. The governance problems caused in the present EU by today’s higher regulation density are already severe. The new member countries are even less well equipped than the present ones to deal with these problems. What political consequences should be drawn?