Exploring Ambiguity and Familiarity Effects in The “Earnings Game” Between Managers and Investors

Prior evidence suggests that managers and investors play an earnings game in which managers bias their earnings forecasts downward as the earnings announcement date approaches. Knowing managers’ incentives to provide biased guidance, investors still revise their expectations downward helping to create “positive earnings surprises.” Using a 2 (ambiguity) × 2 (familiarity) between subject randomized experimental design where MBA students playing the roles of manager and investor answer a series of questions related to earnings guidance, we investigate whether earnings environment ambiguity and manager-investor familiarity influence behavior during the “earnings game.” In general, results from this study suggest that ambiguity contributes to managers’ propensity to mislead and investors’ propensity to follow, and a false sense of familiarity may amplify investors’ reliance on managers’ guidance.     

Integrated analysis of content and construct validity of psychometric instruments

Establishing adequacy of psychometric properties of an instrument involves acquisition and evaluation of evidence based on item content and internal structure. Content validity evidence consists of subject matter experts providing quantitative ratings of the extent to which items are a representative sample of targeted domain. Evidence of internal structure includes factor analytic studies and examination of item interrelationships based on item responses from participants. Although subject matter expert ratings and participant response data are traditionally analyzed separately, each serves to inform the other in important ways. We propose integrating subject matter experts’ and participants’ data seamlessly to establish a unified model of validity evidence. The approach is applied to an instrument designed to measure nursing home culture change (i.e., resident-centered care). The proposed method has been demonstrated to be useful with a posterior distribution resulting in stable estimates of psychometric parameters superior to traditional analytic approaches. To illustrate the efficacy of the methodology, we present a simulation study and discuss its place in psychometric methods.     

The Impact of Industrial Design Effectiveness on Corporate Financial Performance*

Despite the growing recognition of industrial design's value in creating sustainable competitive advantage, few studies have attempted to quantify the contribution that design makes to company financial performance. This article examines the relationship between industrial design and company financial performance in order to assess industrial design's contribution to this performance. Effective industrial design was evaluated by asking a panel of 138 industrial design experts to rank the industrial design effectiveness of publicly traded firms within nine selected manufacturing industries; the ranking process yielded 93 firms. Based on the rankings, firms within each industry were divided into two groups: those judged as exhibiting high design effectiveness versus those judged as low in design effectiveness. Audited financial data reported to the SEC across a seven‐year period from 1995 to 2001 were used to evaluate financial performance. Using traditional financial ratios senior managers consider essential performance measures, those firms with high design effectiveness were hypothesized to have higher returns on sales, returns on assets, and growth rates of sales, net income, and cash flow than firms with low design effectiveness. High design effectiveness firms further were hypothesized to have higher stock market returns. These comprehensive, corporate financial measures incorporate expenditures made on industrial design (industrial designers' salaries, design consultants' fees, computer‐aided industrial design equipment) and expenditures that designers influence through their design choices (material costs, manufacturing equipment). This analysis reveals that firms rated as having “good” design were stronger on all measures except growth rate measures. These results provide strong evidence that good industrial design is related to corporate financial performance and stock market performance even after considering expenditures on industrial design. Further, the patterns of financial performance over the seven‐year horizon suggest that these effects are persistent.     

When excessive cost savings measurement drowns the objectives

This paper presents the dynamics and complexity of implementing a cost savings measurement system in purchasing. It focuses on the technical and strategic aspects of the evolution of such a system in a renowned organisation. Few articles dealing with cost savings in purchasing use an empirical approach. Therefore, this research sheds light on significant issues, often neglected in the literature. Contributions to managers include lessons about the importance of overcoming the complexity of measurements, and recognising that it is easier to begin by measuring hard savings, followed by soft savings when the system is running well. Contributions to the scientific literature include the opportunity to follow the progression of a cost savings measurement system within an organisation, and a discussion about the limitations of such systems.     

A Bayesian Approach to Understanding Time Series Data

This paper explores the use of Bayesian models to analyze time series data. The Bayesian approach produces output that can be readily understood by actuaries and included in their own experience studies. We illustrate this Bayesian approach by analyzing U.S. unemployment rates, a macroeconomic time series. Understanding time series of macroeconomic variables can help actuaries in pricing and reserving their products. For example, a change in the level and/or variance of the unemployment series is of interest to actuaries, because its movement can explain a changing pattern of lapse rates of incidence rates. Our Bayesian analysis, based on models developed by McCulloch and Tsay (1993, 1994), allows for shifts in the level and in the error variance of a process. We develop a measure of model fit, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, that can be used in choosing between alternative models. Posterior prediction intervals for the fitted values are also created to pictorially show the range of paths that could result from the choice of a particular model.     

The influence of individual characteristics,plan characteristics and work-related factors on salaried employees' attitudes towards profit sharing: a Canadian case

We examined the influence of individual and plan characteristics and work-related factors on salaried employees' attitudes towards profit sharing. Employees who were committed to their company, had a high work ethic, did not feel there should be a guaranteed minimum pay-out and who believed that there was a connection between exerting effort and their job performance as well as between their own performance and profit-sharing pay-outs had a more favourable attitude towards profit sharing in general. Employees who were committed to their company, had greater knowledge of their company's profit-sharing plan, preferred the cash bonus distribution scheme and believed there was a connection between their own performance and profit-sharing pay-outs had a more favourable attitude towards their company's profit-sharing plan. The results suggest that individual characteristics and work-related factors are as important to the successful implementation of a profit-sharing plan as the features of the plan itself.     

Ethical perspectives on the foreign direct investment decision

This paper examines the foreign direct investment decision from an ethical perspective, and considers the moral agency involved in such decisions, with emphasis upon the corporate decision-maker. Historical capital allocation models once regarded as both financially and ethically normative are shown to be deficient in today's environment. Work of modern western philososphical and theological ethicists is included in analyses of the applicability of selected ethical approaches or metaphors to multinational foreign direct investment decisions and the corporate manager's role and responsibility as corporate decision-maker and moral agent. The ethical perspectives reviewed can serve as an aid to the individual manager's determination of what constitutes a responsible exercise of decision-making power. Marjorie T. Stanley is Professor of Finance, M. J. Neeley School of Business, Texas Christian University. She was visiting Professor of Finance and Scholar in Residence, Institute for Business Ethics, DePaul University, 1986–87. She has related publications in, e.g., Ethics and the Multinational Enterprise (ed., Hoffman, et al), Journal of International Business Studies, California Management Review, The Financial Review, and Management International Review.     

Marketing for change - Giving brands a soul

Is it possible to avoid becoming flavour of the month and then being dismissed by bored consumers as a marketing gimmick? Saatchi & Saatchi Cause Connection offers a different twist: corporates should be taking the long view and lending substance and ‘soul’ to their brands by effective thought-through charity link-ups. Cause-related marketing or CRM, as it is known, has been familiar to American consumers for a number of years, whereas it has only really become topical in Britain since 1996. In some cases this might mean taking on an issue, but in Britain, where the voluntary/charity sector has a long tradition of delivering services, promoting awareness and is highly professional, there is a real role for advertising to play in communicating social responsibility in conjunction with a charity. This paper provides a potted history of the anti-racist and anti-nuclear campaigns, challenges the current emphasis on ‘discretion’ in corporate giving and outlines a simple checklist for undertaking a relationship.