Reviews

Social policy. Alcock, P. 1996: SOCIAL POLICY IN BRITAIN. London: Macmillan, £12.95 paper.

Unions in local economies. Martin, R., Sunley, P. and Wills, J. 1996: UNION RETREAT AND THE REGIONS. Jessica Kingsley Publishers, £18.95 paper.

Business and the environment. Welford, R. and Starkey, R. (eds) 1996: THE EARTHSCAN READER IN BUSINESS AND THE ENVIRONMENT. London: Earthscan, £19.95 paper.

Innovation. Simmie, J. (ed) 1996: INNOVATION, NETWORKS AND LEARNING REGIONS?. London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers and Regional Studies Association, £16.95, paper.     

Time use, work and overlapping activities: evidence from Australia

The overlapping of activities is an important dimension of timeuse that has previously received little attention in economicanalysis. Most time-use studies have looked only at primaryactivities, ignoring the fact that individuals often performtwo or more activities simultaneously. This seriously underestimatesthe time spent on several economic activities such as childcareand housework which are also performed as secondary activities.Using a two-adult household sub-sample from the 1992 NationalAustralian Time Use Survey, this paper examines the incidenceand determinants of overlapping activities among 3,966 adultmale and female household members. It first shows that inclusionof overlapping activities in time-use measurements providesa better estimation of the economic contribution of individuals,especially in non-market production. Tobit models are then estimatedto examine the effects of economic, social and demographic factorson the incidence of overlapped work activity. The findings,which are found to be robust, showed that gender, householdlife cycle and composition, education, cultural norms, employmentstatus and level of income earnings influence the extent towhich individuals, particularly women, perform secondary workactivities. Conclusions are drawn in the final section of thepaper.     

A longitudinal view of women's role portrayal in television advertising

This article concerns an issue of interest to both advertisers and consumers: female sex-role portrayal in television advertisements. A comparative study using content analysis was conducted for television commercials observed in 1977 and in 1980, respectively. Significant changes between these years are noted on a number of dimensions relevant to the way women are represented in television commercials. These changes are also interpreted in a broader historical perspective whenever possible. Both positive and negative changes are noted and discussed.     

Reviews

GRAND STRATEGY OR DRAINING LAKE WINDERMERE WITH A TEASPOON?

Chandler, J.A. and Lawless, P. 1985: Local Authorities and the Creation of Employment. Aldershot: Gower, £14.50 hardback only.

HOW IT'S DONE IN HAMMERSMITH.

Allan, M., Fenton, M. and Flockhart, A. 1985: Creating a local economic development network. A case study of Hammersmith and Fulham. Dundee Park Place Publishing/The Planning Exchange, £7.50 paperback.

ENTREPRENEURSHIP FOR THE UNEMPLOYED?

Nabarro, R., Davies, R., Cobbold, C. and Galley, N., 1986: Local enterprise and the unemployed. London: Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation. £4.00 plus 60p postage.

THE CO-OP BANK LOOKS AT CO-OPS.

P. A. Management Consultants Ltd. and Co-operative Bank plc, 1985: Workers Co-operatives Past, Present and Future. Manchester: P. A. Management Consultants (Manchester), £20.00.

HOUSING LAND: ARE PLANNERS LOSING THEIR GRIP?

Rydin, Yvonne, 1986: Housing Land Policy. Aldershot: Gower, £15.00 cloth.

MONETARISTS LOOK AT LIVERPOOL.

Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, 1986: Merseyside Economic Prospect Vol. 1, No. 1 February 1986. Liverpool: University of Liverpool, £6.00.

THE FORGOTTEN DEPRIVATION OF RURAL AREAS.

Association of District Councils, 1986: The Rural Economy At The Crossroads—A Review of Rural Needs and Problems in the '80s. ADC,

9 Buckingham Gate, London SW1E 6LE. £5.00.

THE LONDON FINANCIAL STRATEGY.

Greater London Council, 1986: London Financial Strategy London: Greater London Council, £3.50 (now available from London Strategic Policy Unit, 20 Vauxhall Bridge Road, London SW1).     

Determining the Critical Success Factors of the Wine Tourism Region of Napa from a Supply Perspective

Napa is a renowned region for wine tourism and demonstrates how wine can be an instrument to develop tourism. The purpose of this research is to identify the critical success factors that have shaped the area's rise and growth, and its unique competitiveness in both the domestic and global marketplaces for wine tourism destinations. The findings from the research provide the foundation for a proposed conceptual model of success factors in wine tourism research and as insight to practitioners/suppliers. Findings reveal an aligned marketing effort and strategic partnerships among suppliers of Napa wine tourism. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Bayesian Approach to Understanding Time Series Data

This paper explores the use of Bayesian models to analyze time series data. The Bayesian approach produces output that can be readily understood by actuaries and included in their own experience studies. We illustrate this Bayesian approach by analyzing U.S. unemployment rates, a macroeconomic time series. Understanding time series of macroeconomic variables can help actuaries in pricing and reserving their products. For example, a change in the level and/or variance of the unemployment series is of interest to actuaries, because its movement can explain a changing pattern of lapse rates of incidence rates. Our Bayesian analysis, based on models developed by McCulloch and Tsay (1993, 1994), allows for shifts in the level and in the error variance of a process. We develop a measure of model fit, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, that can be used in choosing between alternative models. Posterior prediction intervals for the fitted values are also created to pictorially show the range of paths that could result from the choice of a particular model.     

The Effects of Disclosure and Analyst Regulations on the Relevance of Analyst Characteristics for Explaining Analyst Forecast Accuracy

We posit and find an effect of disclosure and analyst reporting regulations implemented from 2000 through 2003 (including Regulation Fair Disclosure, the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act and the Global Settlement Act) on the importance of analyst and forecast characteristics for analyst forecast accuracy. Following the enactment of these regulations, more experienced analysts and All‐Star analysts do not maintain their superior forecast accuracy, and analysts employed by large brokerage houses perform worse than other analysts. In addition, we find a decrease in the importance of analyst effort, the number of industries and firms followed, days elapsed since the last forecast, and forecast horizon. While the importance of bold upward forecast revisions does not change, bold downward revisions lose their relevance for forecast accuracy after 2003. Finally, we find an increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy. We find that the importance of these characteristics varies with the precision of publicly available information. Specifically, the decrease in the importance of most analyst and forecast characteristics and the increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy are greater when the precision of publicly available information is low. Overall, our results suggest that the positive effects of experience, effort, brokerage house size and All‐Star status on forecast accuracy in the pre‐regulation period were because of the information advantages that these analysts enjoyed (rather than their ability to generate private information). In contrast, our results suggest that prior forecast accuracy is related to analysts’ ability to generate private information.