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41.
Vector autoregressions with Markov‐switching parameters (MS‐VARs) offer substantial gains in data fit over VARs with constant parameters. However, Bayesian inference for MS‐VARs has remained challenging, impeding their uptake for empirical applications. We show that sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) estimators can accurately estimate MS‐VAR posteriors. Relative to multi‐step, model‐specific MCMC routines, SMC has the advantages of generality, parallelizability, and freedom from reliance on particular analytical relationships between prior and likelihood. We use SMC's flexibility to demonstrate that model selection among MS‐VARs can be highly sensitive to the choice of prior. 相似文献
42.
Mark A. Jacobs 《Technovation》2013,33(4-5):111-118
Complexity is a significant concern to managers and can undermine operational performance if not managed well, or if managed well could be used to strategic advantage. However, the quantification of complexity is requisite to managing and exploiting it. To date, an easily employable quantitative measure has not been introduced. This has hampered the ability of researchers to conduct large empirical studies and to gain a fuller understanding of the impacts of complexity on organizations. This has in turn impeded the ability of researchers to inform managers about how to manage complexity. This article presents one such measure, the Generalized Complexity Index (GCI), and illustrates it using publicly available data from the cruise line industry. The GCI employs the product structure diagram to create a geometric structure from which the level of the three dimensions of complexity (multiplicity, diversity, and interconnectedness) can be computed. The GCI is a function of these three dimensions. A significant advantage of the GCI is that it can be applied at multiple levels of analysis including product, portfolio, and supply chain. Implications for business diversification research and marketing strategy are introduced and future research topics are identified. 相似文献
43.
The Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) is a federal block grant program to help low-income households pay their heating and cooling bills. If the regular fiscal year LIHEAP appropriation is less than or equal to $1.975 billion, then a 1981 formula is applied to distribute funding across states, while if appropriations rise above the $1.975 billion threshold, a 1984 formula is applied in conjunction with two hold-harmless provisions. In 18 of the past 20 years, the 1981 formula has served as the default mechanism to distribute LIHEAP funding. The purpose of this paper is to call attention to the inadequacy of the 1981 formula and to explain why the objectives of LIHEAP are not met when this formula is used. We explain why the distribution of LIHEAP funds is not proportionate to the need for assistance and offer some suggestions for improvement. The 1981 formula is shown to be the outcome of a convoluted political process heavily biased in favor of cold-climate states, with cold-climate states receiving on-the-order of at least $150 million a year in allotment dollars beyond their “fair share” of heating requirements. The 1981 and 1984 distribution formulas are derived and a critical examination of each formula is presented. The 1984 formula is shown to be an ideal mechanism to distribute LIHEAP funds, based on a scientific and rational understanding of low-income energy needs, but legislative constraints prevent its application. 相似文献
44.
45.
Orchestrating Rent Seeking Contests 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Contests have different, sometimes quite complex, organisational structures. In particular, while most of the existing literature focusses on simultaneous contests, multistage contests are also quite frequently encountered. This paper seeks to provide a rationale for the latter by endogenising the choice of a contest structure, which is made by an organiser of a contest interested in maximising the efforts expended by the contenders. 相似文献
46.
Mark Bensink Christine Edwards Charles Bowers Jon Campbell 《Journal of medical economics》2018,21(6):603-605
47.
We use data from the Labour Force Survey to show that employed and unemployed job seekers in Great Britain originate from different occupations and find jobs in different occupations. We find substantial differences in occupational mobility between job seekers: employed job seekers are most likely to move to occupations paying higher average wages relative to their previous occupation, while unemployed job seekers are most likely to move to lower paying occupations. Employed and unemployed job seekers exhibit different patterns of occupational mobility and, therefore, do not accept the same types of jobs. 相似文献
48.
49.
Two symmetric sellers are approached sequentially by fragmented buyers. Each buyer conducts a second-price auction and purchases from the seller who offers the lower price. Winning an auction affects bidding for future contracts because the sellers have nonconstant marginal costs. We assume that the sellers are completely informed, and we study the unique equilibrium that survives iterated elimination of weakly dominated strategies. If subcontracting between the sellers is impossible, the final allocation of contracts is generally inefficient. If postauction subcontracting is possible, the sellers can be worse off, ex ante , than when subcontracting is impossible. 相似文献
50.
Mobility indices are popular tools designed to quantify the extent of income changes by aggregating “local” distributional change into a “global” scalar according to some rule. For some mobility measures, this aggregation rule is only implicit in their standard definition. We derive an insightful approximation to the (statistical) aggregation rule for the important class of mobility indices introduced by Shorrocks (Journal of Economic Theory 19 (1978), 376–93) and further generalized by Maasoumi and Zandvakili (Economic Letters 22 (1986), 97–102), which enables us to characterize their normative properties. We also develop methods for estimation and inference. A substantive empirical contribution emerges from the comparison of mobility between the United States and Germany. Our methods reveal why income mobility is higher in Germany than in the United States: Higher German mobility in the bottom of the distribution is combined with an implicitly higher weighting by the mobility index at the bottom. 相似文献