Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regressions

We propose the parametric Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regression (DSUR) estimator for simultaneous estimation of multiple cointegrating regressions. DSUR is efficient when the equilibrium errors are correlated across equations and is applicable for panel cointegration estimation in environments where the cross section is small relative to the available time series. We study the asymptotic and small sample properties of the DSUR estimator for both heterogeneous and homogeneous cointegrating vectors. We then apply the method to analyse two long-standing problems in international economics. Our first application revisits the estimation of long-run correlations between national investment and national saving. Our second application revisits the question of whether the forward exchange rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate.     

Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application

We describe a simple iterative method for solving large dynamic CGE models under rational expectations. Details are given for Australia's MONASH model but the approach applies to a wide range of CGE models. The method is automated in the RunMONASH Windows software, putting CGE modelling under rational expectations within the reach of non-specialist modellers. We provide an illustrative application in which MONASH results under rational expectations are compared with results under static expectations. The application and supporting software can be downloaded. Results from the application are interpreted in terms of elementary economic mechanisms.     

The contracting value of tainted reports in cost reduction settings

While cost accounting is a well-developed discipline with a rich institutional past, it is criticized for being manipulable. This criticism is due, in part, to the existence of multiple, yet equally accepted cost allocation procedures or cost estimation techniques. Employing a principal-agent model, cost accounting is modeled as a menu of alternative methods which, conditional on agent effort, produce noisy, unbiased and independently distributed (i.e., equally defensible) measures from which a single realization is selected ex post as the report used to contract with the agent. Assuming that the report does not indicate which method produced it, the report modeled is “tainted” in that the lowest (most favorable to the agent) outcome is reported, where the “amount” of tainting corresponds to the menu's size. The paper identifies bright-line conditions where the principal's expected net payoff is independent of the amount of tainting, demonstrating that tainting does not necessarily affect the report's incentive value.     

Consumer Choice and the Popular Music Industry: A Test of the Superstar Theory

The superstar model predicts skewness of market outcomes and returns to artist quality. We test and confirm these predictions using a unique data set on popular music.     

Four Dimensions of Quality in Australian Jobs

We develop and analyse comprehensive, multi-item scales of the quality of Australian jobs, using the rich measures of job characteristics from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. Through exploratory methods and multidimensional item response theory modelling, we uncover four gender-specific scales that describe the autonomy, demands/engagement, compensation adequacy and security of jobs. From 2001 to 2016, women’s job demands/engagement and compensation adequacy grew noticeably, and men’s job demands/engagement grew somewhat. Since the mid-2000s, job security has fallen for both women and men. Job quality rises with job tenure, work experience and health, and falls following involuntary job changes.     

Introducing ‘Journeys Home’

Homelessness, despite being a major social policy issue in Australia, is an area that is not well served by data. Most sorely lacking is any large‐scale panel study that follows a broad sample of persons with recent experience of homelessness and unstable housing histories. In 2010, the Australian Government set about rectifying this deficiency when it commissioned the Melbourne Institute to undertake a new panel study, now known as ‘Journeys Home’. This study draws its sample from the population of Centrelink income‐support recipients, targeting persons identified in the administrative data as having recent experience of homelessness, as well as others with similar characteristics who may be vulnerable to housing difficulties in the future. This article summarises the design of this new study and reports on fieldwork outcomes from the first two waves of data collection.     

Access to Flexible Working and Informal Care

We use matched employer–employee data to explore the relationship between employees’ access to flexible working arrangements and the amount of informal care they provide to sick or elderly friends and relatives. Flexitime and the ability to reduce working hours are each associated with about 13% more hours of informal care. Workplaces do not respond to the presence of carers by providing flexible work, instead there is some underlying selection of carers into flexible workplaces. The wider workplace environment beyond formal flexible work may also facilitate care.     

Investigating regional house price convergence in the United States: Evidence from a pair-wise approach

In this paper we examine long-run house price convergence across US states using a novel econometric approach advocated by Pesaran (2007) and Pesaran et al. (2009). Our empirical modelling strategy employs a probabilistic test statistic for convergence based on the percentage of unit root rejections among all state house price differentials. Using a sieve bootstrap procedure, we construct confidence intervals and find evidence in favour of convergence. We also conclude that speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is inversely related to distance.     

Does housework lower wages? Evidence for Britain

This paper uses the British Household Panel Survey to present the first estimates of the housework-wage relationship in Britain. Controlling for permanent unobserved heterogeneity, we find that housework has a negative impact on the wages of men and women, both married and single, who work full-time. Among women working part-time, only single women suffer a housework penalty. The housework penalty is uniform across occupations within full-time jobs but some part-time jobs appear to be more compatible with housework than others. We find tentative evidence that the housework penalty is larger when there are children present.