The Co‐movement of Credit Default Swap,Bond and Stock Markets: an Empirical Analysis

We analyse the relationship between credit default swap (CDS), bond and stock markets during 2000–2002. Focusing on the intertemporal co‐movement, we examine monthly, weekly and daily lead‐lag relationships in a vector autoregressive model and the adjustment between markets caused by cointegration. First, we find that stock returns lead CDS and bond spread changes. Second, CDS spread changes Granger cause bond spread changes for a higher number of firms than vice versa. Third, the CDS market is more sensitive to the stock market than the bond market and the strength of the co‐movement increases the lower the credit quality and the larger the bond issues. Finally, the CDS market contributes more to price discovery than the bond market and this effect is stronger for US than for European firms.     

USING EXCHANGE-TRADED EQUITY FLEX PUT OPTIONS IN CORPORATE STOCK REPURCHASE PROGRAMS

Casual evidence suggests that as many as 10% of the companies repurchasing their stock over the past decade have used the sale of puts on the company's stock as part of the repurchase program. This article describes a new instrument for such corporate stock buybacks recently introduced by the American Stock Exchange: Equity Flex puts on the issuer's stock. When and if the puts are exercised, the company's shares are retired—often on better terms and with better cash flow timing than the company could achieve with a conventional stock repurchase program.
To date, such stock repurchase programs have been conducted primarily using over-the-counter put options. The new Equity Flex puts promise to eliminate the relative advantages of OTC transactions and offer stock repurchasers better pricing and increased liquidity. Use of exchange markets can also help overcome any reluctance a financial officer might have to rely on prices offered by a single dealer.     

Framing Effects in Stock Market Forecasts: The Difference Between Asking for Prices and Asking for Returns

Studies analyzing return expectations of financial market participantslike fund managers, CFOs or individual investors are highlyinfluential in academia and practice. We argue and show thatthe results in these surveys above are easily influenced bythe elicitation mode of return expectations. Surveys that askfor future stock price levels are more likely to produce meanreverting expectations than surveys that directly ask for futurereturns. Furthermore, we conduct a questionnaire study thatexplicitly analyzes whether the specific elicitation mode affectsreturn expectations in the above direction. In our study, subjectswere asked to state mean forecasts for seven time series. Usinga between subject design, one half of the subjects was askedto state future price levels, the other group was directly askedfor returns. We observe a highly significant framing effect.For upward sloping time series, the return forecasts statedby investors in the return forecast mode are significantly higherthan those derived for investors in the price forecast mode.For downward sloping time series, the return forecasts givenby investors in the return forecast mode are significantly lowerthan those derived for investors in the price forecast mode.We argue that this finding is consistent with behavioral theoriesof investor expectation formation based on the representativenessheuristic.     

Labour market forecasting in Germany: is disaggregation useful?

This paper examines whether labour market forecasts can be improved by using disaggregated information. We construct vector-autoregressive models for employment by sector in order to produce out-of-sample forecasts of aggregate employment. Forecast accuracy is compared to univariate models by using Clark/West tests. In an application to German data, it is evident that disaggregation significantly improves the employment forecast. Moreover, using fluctuation-window tests we find that disaggregation yields superior results especially in phases with strong and sustained employment changes.     

Talking in the present,caring for the future: Language and environment

This paper identifies a new source that explains environmental behaviour: the presence of future tense marking in language. We predict that languages that grammatically mark the future affect speakers’ intertemporal preferences and thereby reduce their willingness to address environmental problems. We first show that speakers of languages with future tense marking are less likely to adopt environmentally responsible behaviours and to support policies to prevent environmental damage. We then document that this effect holds across countries: future tense marking is an important determinant of climate change policies and global environmental cooperation. The results suggest that there may be deep and surprising obstacles for attempts to address climate change.     

LOCAL LABOR MARKETS AND NATURAL RESOURCES: A SYNTHESIS OF THE LITERATURE

A primary way that natural resources affect a locality is through the demand for labor, with greater extraction requiring more workers. Shifts in labor demand can be measured through changes in employment and earnings, the main labor market outcomes, or through changes in the population and income, more generally. These changes may spillover into the nonresource economy, leading to greater overall effects or possibly crowd out; be spread unequally across the population, thereby altering the distribution of income and the poverty rate; or influence educational attainment, as people choose between additional schooling and work. In this review, the literature linking natural resources to local labor markets is synthesized by organizing existing studies according to their resource measurement and the outcomes that they consider. This synthesis provides an accessible guide to a literature that has boomed in recent years. It also identifies promising avenues for future research and lays a foundation to further generalize the evidence through an eventual meta‐analysis.     

When the glass is half full and half empty: CEOs' ambivalent interpretations of strategic issues

Organizational scholars have highlighted the importance of interpretive ambivalence for mindfulness, creativity, and strategic change. Ambivalence occurs when an issue is seen simultaneously as positive and negative. We examine organizational factors that influence the propensity of organizational leaders to evaluate a new strategic issue ambivalently. Data come from a survey of 220 German CEOs confronted with the enlargement of the European Union. We find that CEOs of firms with a more ambidextrous strategic orientation and a moderate sense of organizational control over their environment are most likely to be ambivalent about this issue. Our findings affirm the prevalence of interpretive ambivalence at the executive level and suggest ways for organizations to promote or prevent ambivalence in strategic sensemaking. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining the technological innovation systems framework with the entrepreneurs’ perspective on innovation

For their technological sustainability innovations to become successful, entrepreneurs can strategically shape the technological field in which they are involved. The technological innovation systems (TISs) literature has generated valuable insights into the processes which need to be stimulated for the successful development and implementation of innovative sustainability technologies. To explore the applicability of the TIS framework from the perspective of entrepreneurs, we conducted a case study in the Dutch smart grids sector. We found that the TIS framework generally matches the perspectives of entrepreneurs. For its use by entrepreneurs, we suggest a slight adaptation of this framework. The process ‘Market formation’ needs to be divided into processes that are driven by the government and processes that are driven by entrepreneurs. There should be a greater emphasis on collaborative marketing, on changing user behaviour and preferences and on the development of fair and feasible business models.